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I am not suggesting that that COVID-19 isn’t serious but this BS is a problem ...


A week ago the CDC announced that COVID-19 was reaching the threshold of not being classified as an epidemic. Another study took this information and removed COVID-19 nursing home deaths from the six or so states that forced or permitted hospitals to send COVID-19 patients back to nursing homes and found that without these nursing home deaths it wouldn’t have reached epidemic status.

The mortality rate among young people is very low. The number of new cases is increasing due to the number of tests increasing yet the positive rates are lower or the same. The CDC cited more positive results with younger age groups and a better awareness of how to treat the virus. The Europeans found no evidence that children spread the virus.

I don’t care that the academics decided to go to 100% on-line classes and cancel fall sports, or that Stanford eliminated co-ed sailing and women’s sailing along with 10 other sports that no member of this forum would ordinarily care about.

I work with “middle market” sized businesses and they aren’t canceling anything and learned very quickly how to manage through the virus.

College sports can figure it out as well,
That tweet was clearly enough of a problem to be deleted already...



Where are you seeing that the percent positive is going down? Because in the new hotspot regions of the south and southwest they are most certainly far higher than they need to be, and are also higher than they were a month ago (and on certain days some states have been above 20% positive). Nationally it decreased, but that has a lot to do with regions such as the Northeast that have been dropping in overall new cases for a while without decreasing the number of tests. The CDCs own website says the percent positive has increased in 5 regions over the past week (they mention there are 10 regions, so it's increasing in half of them). Also, this is their statement:

Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) activity continue to increase overall. The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, decreased slightly from last week; however, this past week included a holiday, which could impact both testing and reporting. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 decreased compared to last week and is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely increase as additional death certificates are processed.
None of that says "on the threshold of not being classified as an epidemic" - it in fact says "it's still classified as an epidemic and likely to go increase in severity." AKA the opposite of that.

The 7 day moving average for deaths was falling steadily up until July 5th. It had reached a peak of 2255 on April 21st, and fell all the way to 516 on July 5th. However, it has climbed back up to 740 as of yesterday. Why? Because deaths tend to lag cases by up to a month since people don't tend to die initially on being brought to the hospital. Considering Florida, Texas, and Arizona have all recently announced that a portion of their hospitals are currently out of ICU beds or are soon to be, we will also unfortunately start to see the rate continue to climb for a while.


As for Children spreading it: again, the CDC on their own website says children can and do spread it: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

If children meet in groups, it can put everyone at risk. Children can pass this virus onto others who have an increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19.
And look, a summer camp was opened and so far 82 campers and staffers have tested positive: Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus


And the whole "the mortality rate is low among young people" is among the dumbest of arguments:
1) This isn't black/white. There are not only 2 outcomes of death or recovery. There's a whole world of outcomes in the middle ranging from full recovery to permanent lung or heart damage. There have even been reports (and studies of this) of men having their reproductive systems damaged (Potential risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection on reproductive health)
2) Low isn't 0. Even at 0.02% (which is the lowest for any age group that has been calculated so far) we're still talking thousands of dead young people. That isn't accounting for the additional tens of thousands (if not more) who will be permanently affected healthwise.
 

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Discussion Starter #22
I wouldn't want this conversation to turn into a political debate about our country's deplorable response to this pandemic...

The reality of the situation is that the Ivy League has canceled fall sports in their entirety based on their priority system of academics over athletics, because they can't safely have students on campus, making it not feasible to conduct athletics.

The Big Ten/Pac-12 going "Conference Only" sounds far less severe than what it really is.... (It's not like these guys play non-conference ROAD GAMES at non-P5 schools). "Conference Only" is code for "We are canceling our first 3 to 4 games of the season" aka, "we won't be able to play in August/September."

There's just not a way to get this done safely at the collegiate level without the massive spending on a secure, quarantine bubble. The pro sports leagues can do it because they get massive amounts of money from TV, so playing on TV is a viable way of staying afloat. But the cost of testing everyone is in the "Millions per Month" range. Maybe the SEC might try it, but I can't envision anyone else making it that far.

The Junior College association is moving all fall sports to the spring, like the Ivy. We're probably going to need a vaccine to start up again. Unless we magically get a national "shutdown, testing and contact tracing program" covering everyone in America.... rolled out next week.
 

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I didn’t claim that the CDC was on the threshold of removing COVID-19 from epidemic status, but as e-parade posted from the CDC, COVID-19 is marginally classified as an epidemic.

The low mortality rate among young ages is fact, and it’s especially low along with low hospitalizations among young age groups with no underlying medical conditions. Not all of the country suffered from a poor response to the crisis, and honestly we are dealing with the age group with the lowest mortality and hospitalization rates - especially those with no underlying medical conditions. Like I said before, the business community figured it out so there is no reason why college sports involving a small subset of the young age groups and of extremely healthy athletes can’t do the same.

My daughter’s BFF was exposed through a contact at work and tested positive, however, my daughter and all of the BFF’s roommates and all other friends that were in close contact tested negative.
 

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Is there a correct number of athletes or students to put at risk, Jaffie? Should we have fall sports and/or have students go back to school because, well, only a small percentage of them are at risk of dying? Or, what are the chances that they are exposed and subsequently expose coaches, staff, faculty, families, individuals with potentially a higher risk? With all of this revenue that can be earned by reopening the schools and playing football and other Fall sports, surely that outweighs all of these exposure/death risks, right?

Sorry, I'm coming at this as somebody responsible for helping to determine whether and/or how to reopen a school district, and with a son who is scheduled to start his freshman year in college this Fall. I'm highly concerned.
 

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But we’re canceling fall sports on the same data? They’re never false positive, right?
False positives are much more rare. To administer the test properly it needs to be way up your nose and for 30 seconds. My wife, an ER doc at Hopkins, has been tested twice. She said it was brutal. Many react in ways that make the test unreliable.
 

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I didn’t claim that the CDC was on the threshold of removing COVID-19 from epidemic status, but as e-parade posted from the CDC, COVID-19 is marginally classified as an epidemic.

The low mortality rate among young ages is fact, and it’s especially low along with low hospitalizations among young age groups with no underlying medical conditions. Not all of the country suffered from a poor response to the crisis, and honestly we are dealing with the age group with the lowest mortality and hospitalization rates - especially those with no underlying medical conditions. Like I said before, the business community figured it out so there is no reason why college sports involving a small subset of the young age groups and of extremely healthy athletes can’t do the same.

My daughter’s BFF was exposed through a contact at work and tested positive, however, my daughter and all of the BFF’s roommates and all other friends that were in close contact tested negative.
Focusing solely on mortality rate is looking at this problem through a narrow lense. The virus could have long term health ramifications for young people who get it. Further, if the hospitals get overrun with Covid patients many will not get medical help and die at home for both Covid and non Covid related health problems.

What business community figured it out? I see businesses struggling to deal with this every time they reopen. College sports are at the back of the line to figure out for most people. Getting all students back to school is priority number 1. Do not expect to see college basketball until January 1 and there will likely be no fans. Do not be shocked if FBS football tries to play and shuts down but they will try because of the money involved.
 

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Focusing solely on mortality rate is looking at this problem through a narrow lease. The virus could have long term health ramifications for young people who get it. Further, if the hospitals get overrun with Covid patients many will not get medical help and die at home for both Covid and non Covid related health problems.

What business community figured it out? I see businesses struggling to deal with this every time they reopen. College sports are at the back of the line to figure out for most people. Getting all students back to school is priority number 1. Do not expect to see college basketball until January 1 and there will likely be no fans. Do not be shocked if FBS football tries to play and shuts down but they will try because of the money involved.
This was a good thread that talks about what you mentioned
 

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Discussion Starter #33
We're cancelling fall sports because college dorms are basically land-ground cruise ships: If one person gets it, it rips through practically everyone.

And because getting the testing necessary to pull off reopening colleges is a pipe dream.

The Presidents of UVA, VCU and Va Tech asked the state government for $200 million so they can test everyone coming back to campus in the fall.
 

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Is there a correct number of athletes or students to put at risk, Jaffie? Should we have fall sports and/or have students go back to school because, well, only a small percentage of them are at risk of dying? Or, what are the chances that they are exposed and subsequently expose coaches, staff, faculty, families, individuals with potentially a higher risk? With all of this revenue that can be earned by reopening the schools and playing football and other Fall sports, surely that outweighs all of these exposure/death risks, right?

Sorry, I'm coming at this as somebody responsible for helping to determine whether and/or how to reopen a school district, and with a son who is scheduled to start his freshman year in college this Fall. I'm highly concerned.
I read where 22 European and others like Japan and South Korea open schools with no evidence that infections were spread between students, staff or between students and their families. Evidence suggests that this is even more true among younger children. Of course the media has to point out that the Europeans managed this crisis better than most of the US. That said NY is going to look at this differently than OH.

I’m concerned that we’re waiting for this simply to go away or for a vaccine and ignoring long term effects of shutting down the country. Unfortunately we may have treat this like we do the common cold. BTW, I have a daughter in college and my wife is a high school teacher, so my family recognizes the risks. My wife’s school system is worried about children not getting free breakfasts and lunches, homes where kids are left at home all day because parents work, physical and mental abuse not being noticed because kids aren’t in school.
 

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I read where 22 European and others like Japan and South Korea open schools with no evidence that infections were spread between students, staff or between students and their families. Evidence suggests that this is even more true among younger children. Of course the media has to point out that the Europeans managed this crisis better than most of the US. That said NY is going to look at this differently than OH.

I’m concerned that we’re waiting for this simply to go away or for a vaccine and ignoring long term effects of shutting down the country. Unfortunately we may have treat this like we do the common cold. BTW, I have a daughter in college and my wife is a high school teacher, so my family recognizes the risks. My wife’s school system is worried about children not getting free breakfasts and lunches, homes where kids are left at home all day because parents work, physical and mental abuse not being noticed because kids aren’t in school.
Did you not read the link I put in before? Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

Direct evidence that infections spread between people of student age. Have some more direct evidence: Coronavirus Illinois: 36 students from Lake Zurich High School sports camp test positive for COVID-19

We literally have direct evidence of what can happen in this country based on what's already happened. Are you going out of your way to ignore this?

As for meals for students, there are more ways to get those out than having people who will 100% be able to spread it go into an enclosed space for 7 hours a day together.


This is a fucking pandemic and dealing with it sucks. People need to get over the fact that life isn't going to be "normal" for a while so we can come up with actual solutions to support the people who need it most. Other countries have been able to get much more back to normal and their economies back on track because people actually listened to advice rather than screaming about masks being a violation of civil liberty or how badly they needed a haircut or to eat out. Sweden tried to go the route of not shutting anything down so that their economy wouldn't be hurt as much by it. They ended up with more deaths per capita than all of their neighboring countries and their economy is actually currently in worse shape than their neighbors as well. You know why? Because it turns out when a shit ton of people get sick and die, or sick to the point of not being able to work, there are fewer people able to work to produce things. There are also more people who will suddenly not want to participate in normal activities because they're scared they'll be next.



Edit: Oh look: Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains
 

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Article in Charleston paper today about outlook for college sports.
Worked off the hypothesis that the Power 5 will do whatever they want to keep $ flowing in football.
Going to conference only games hurts the smaller schools who depended on buy game $ from them.
Some options for smaller programs than P-5, and also maybe for P-5 non-revenue sports:
1 - create new conferences that are more geographically logical for various sports, to lower plane trips/hotels
2 - utilize "sponsorships" to support teams (Fairway Ford Fordham Rams)

Spiders would probably be sponsored by a pest control company.
We are purchasing a ski clothing company as a subsidiary to be our sponsor...
I don't care that we lost a lawsuit to them.


And the latest update from "A Committee of One"
 

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Discussion Starter #37
The twitter thread on 1% is a good thread.

But the reality of the situation is that for the size of A-10 schools, 1% of your athletics department is 4 student-athletes and 1 staff member.

It's impossible to avoid tragedy in this world, but when one of our athletes dies, we name awards in their honor (Chris Daniels A-10 Most Improved Player, for example), or make documentaries about them (Hank Gathers, We Are Marshall).

But we think that our ADs and Presidents are going to agree that FOUR EACH this season is acceptable?
 

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Did you not read the link I put in before? Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

Direct evidence that infections spread between people of student age. Have some more direct evidence: Coronavirus Illinois: 36 students from Lake Zurich High School sports camp test positive for COVID-19

We literally have direct evidence of what can happen in this country based on what's already happened. Are you going out of your way to ignore this?

As for meals for students, there are more ways to get those out than having people who will 100% be able to spread it go into an enclosed space for 7 hours a day together.


This is a fucking pandemic and dealing with it sucks. People need to get over the fact that life isn't going to be "normal" for a while so we can come up with actual solutions to support the people who need it most. Other countries have been able to get much more back to normal and their economies back on track because people actually listened to advice rather than screaming about masks being a violation of civil liberty or how badly they needed a haircut or to eat out. Sweden tried to go the route of not shutting anything down so that their economy wouldn't be hurt as much by it. They ended up with more deaths per capita than all of their neighboring countries and their economy is actually currently in worse shape than their neighbors as well. You know why? Because it turns out when a shit ton of people get sick and die, or sick to the point of not being able to work, there are fewer people able to work to produce things. There are also more people who will suddenly not want to participate in normal activities because they're scared they'll be next.



Edit: Oh look: Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains
I don’t give a fuck about the two links that you provided. On a broad scale the Europeans are saying that they were able to safely open schools. That’s a fact e-parade. The Europeans also cite instances where there were outbreaks. It’s not going to be perfect but they shut the affected schools down. The CDC has issued guidelines on re-opening schools as well but you only cherry pick information from the CDC that supports your arguments.

I suspect that you live in one of the three states that combined are responsible for 40% of all COVID.deaths? Seriously you are lecturing the rest of the country on how to manage through the virus? Bullshit models, horrendous decisions and policy? You have the balls to lecture us? You are tone deaf.
 

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I don’t give a fuck about the two links that you provided. On a broad scale the Europeans are saying that they were able to safely open schools. That’s a fact e-parade. The Europeans also cite instances where there were outbreaks. It’s not going to be perfect but they shut the affected schools down. The CDC has issued guidelines on re-opening schools as well but you only cherry pick information from the CDC that supports your arguments.

I suspect that you live in one of the three states that combined are responsible for 40% of all COVID.deaths? Seriously you are lecturing the rest of the country on how to manage through the virus? Bullshit models, horrendous decisions and policy? You have the balls to lecture us? You are tone deaf.
Do we have a tone deaf, cherry picking lecturer here accusing someone of being a tone deaf, cherry picking lecturer?
 
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