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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
If Karl Malone plays for TWO more seasons, here's what he'll need to average per year to catch Kareem:

22.4 points/game (assuming he doesn't miss a game)

Considering the fact that Malone averaged 22.4 points/game this past season (9th in the league), is this realistic? Probably not, since his average will almost certainly go DOWN. So what'll he have to do if he plays for THREE more seasons? Let's say he plays three more years, and just to play it safe, let's say he misses a total of, oh, 24 games (8 missed games per season) during that time (sure, he's always stayed healthy, but he'll be 40 next July). Here's what he'll have to average over the next three years to catch Kareem:

16.6 points/game (again, we're assuming he misses some games, an average of 8 missed games per year)

Is that realistic? Absolutely! Let's say he re-signs with Utah next offseason, where he'll continue to be the #1 scoring option for at LEAST a couple of seasons. Let's say his average steadily declines over the next three years. Remember, he averaged 22.4 points/game last season. He's not going to average 16.6 points/game EACH season over the next three years, that's his average for the ENTIRE three-year period. Here's a more realistic points/game per year projection for The Mailman:

2002-03: 19.5 points/game (39 years old during this season)
2003-04: 16.6 points/game (40 years old during this season)
2004-05: 13.7 points/game (41 years old during this season)

TOTALLY REALISTIC! In FACT, I think he'll probably average more points/game during EACH of these three seasons, but I'm just being conservative! And, again, these projections are ASSUMING that he misses an average of 8 games per season--he may not miss ANY! The Mailman stays in GREAT SHAPE, here's how many games he's missed over his 17-year career: NINE. Nine games! And most of those missed games were because of suspensions (due to an ejection)! The dude is an incredible physical specimen!

Take a look at how little his points/game has gone down over the past four years, it may surprise you:

1998-1999: 23.8 points/game (he missed 33 games during this season)
1999-2000: 25.5 points/game
2000-2001: 23.2 points/game
2001-2002: 22.4 points/game

Pretty steady!

In other words, The Mailman WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY break Kareem's all-time scoring record, especially if he stays with Utah. Expect for him to re-sign a two-year extension with the Jazz next summer, in other words. The most CONSERVATIVE estimates point to him breaking the record!
 

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Why will it go down? He has averaged 22 points for a while now. Just because you predict something does not mean it will happen. I do think he will break it. He has said he will play 3 more seasons. After this year he is gonna sign with whoever wins the title this year. He already has enough money. He said he'll take however much money they can offer him. Like a mid level exception 4.5. Look for Malone to be a King.
 

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assuming he plays 3 more eyars he will most certainly break it, but i dno if he will, although i expect him to get at least 22.4 next year cause i expect stockton to have a semi resurgence
 

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Wasn't 99 the 50 game season? If so, Karl did not miss 33 games that year.

I think he'll make it as he stays in good shape. Kareem had to play 20 years to get that record, so Karl will have to do his time to beat it. He is on pace to do just that.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Originally posted by <b>TheRifleman</b>!
Wasn't 99 the 50 game season? If so, Karl did not miss 33 games that year.
Good call, T.R., I always forget about that! I'll edit my post.

And MALAKIAN--I'm not saying it WILL go down necessarily--I'm just being CONSERVATIVE--the point here is that, even if Malone's scoring dips quite a bit over the next three seasons, he'll STILL break Kareem's record!

And I doubt that he cares about winning a championship more than the all-time scoring record. Sure, he COULD sign with a Sacramento or a San Antonio or a Dallas for the mid-level exception--but he certainly wouldn't be a focal point in the offense. If he re-signs with Utah, he'll remain the go-to guy and probably break Kareem's record in the first half of the 2004-05 season.
 

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I think he could do it... but not without Stockton, who I think will retire after next season...

If you check out career stats on both players... Half of Karl's points almost equals Stockton's career assist mark....hmmmm..

JaK
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Originally posted by <b>JaK</b>!
I think he could do it... but not without Stockton, who I think will retire after next season...

If you check out career stats on both players... Half of Karl's points almost equals Stockton's career assist mark....hmmmm..

JaK
I think we all know that The Mailman owes a TON to John Stockton. I hope we do, anyway.

However, you MUST be joking if you think that The Mailman can't average 16.6 points/game over his final three seasons, with or without Stockton! Sure, his numbers might slip--and they might even slip a LOT--but he'll STILL break Kareem's record, assuming he re-signs with the Jazz, where he'll continue to be the #1 scoring option.
 

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I think that Malone will break the record the question is when and where

Mailman will put up 20-10 next year then probably 18-10 then 16-8 his last year.


I dont think Malone will retire without breaking the record
 

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malone owes alot to stockton, stockton alot to malone.

malone was a GREAT offensive player, stockton or no stockton.
 

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IMX Projected Stats...

--Karl Malone--
2002-03: 21.5ppg 8.8rpg
2003-04: 20.4ppg 8.9rpg
2004-05: 19.2ppg 8.9rpg
 
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