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I know this got hammered when Ballscientist posted about it, and justifiably, based on the argument he presented. (Tiny sample)

But it got me thinking, so I had a look at the numbers.

As many of you know, the vast majority of players peak occurs between the ages of 27 and 29. A few may peak at 26 or 30, and a very small number at 25 or 31. Almost no-one outside those ages. Most of the players who do peak outside of the 27 to 29 bracket usually have an extenuating circumstance - often an injury, or sometimes a change in role, coach and/or team.

KG is 29. He had his best year scoring at age 27, after steady improvement; posting a 10% increase in FGA/game while maintaining the breakthrough FG% (to 50%) that he made the year before. Last year he fell off dramatically in FGA/game - to the lowest level since he was 22 years old.

His rebounds per game rose steadily, with the rate slowing to a near plateau at 26. Slightly better at age 27; they dropped imperceptibly last year; rounding the top of the bell curve. Rebounds per game are the first thing that goes in a big. I doubt he will get 13 rpg this year.

Blocks per game has been fairly constant throughout his career. THis is not unusual - quite a few shot blockers have their numerical best quite young, and never achieve the same number again because they tone down their (over)aggressiveness. KG's best year? - did you guess? - at age 27! Last year was his career WORST, 1.4 bpg.

APG tends not to follow the curve. For one thing, it is not as dependent on physiology - and more so on smarts. It is also one of the most dependent stats on coaching strategy and teammate performance. KG had as good a year passing last year as ever.

Overall, for a high energy quick player who is unlikely to get much benefit from the pure strength peak that occurs later, and likely to be hurt by starting to lose peak reflex, quickness, and muscle recovery capabilities, it is likely that the peak would occur early.

Further, many prodigy athletes who start playing pro as a teen AND play at a very high level as a rookie or sophomore tend to peak early. Wayne Gretzky is a perfect example. (There are exceptions)

That, combined with the number of stats that appear to have already peaked indicate quite clearly that KG is unlikely to achieve at the levels he did at age 27.

Of course, "prime" is a subjective and relative term. If you consider it to be a 5-year span, then KG is still in his prime. But likely at the end of his "prime".

Perhaps the most important thing to remember is that, barring injury, players who play at a high level as a teen or 20-year old, are very likely able to play at a high level well into their 30s.

And KGs health has been excellent. So even if he never has another year like 2002-03, don't worry about a collapse. Barring injury, he will still be an all-star in 5 years time.

If you really want to look at a player who is ready to go into decline, check out Timmy's career numbers...
 

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That was really confusing. I can't tell if you're saying he is past his prime or isn't. Also I would imagine there's a reason why that other thread was locked...
 

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Kevin Garnett is posting some of the best numbers of his career, so I'm not sure how he's past his prime. He doesn't seem to be all that aggressive anymore offensively.
 

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I'm not sure, either.

His knee problems might be playing some factors why his stats are not at this level where most people think that they should be at this point.
 
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