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We are one half a game from the 5th spot. GS has the same amount of wins and one more loss than we do. I think we will end up in the 5th spot, because GS is playing better than we are. We could get as low as the 4th if Utah (which won it's 21st game tonight) starts winning a few games.
 

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Hap said:
aren't there 2 picks that are impossible for Portland to get as the 5th or 6th worst team?
I think every team can get the #1, 2, 3, their current rank, or 1+ their current rank.

So if Portland had the 5th worst record, I think they can only end up with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, or 6th picks.

They end up with a top 3 pick if one of their combinations is drawn having them in the top 3.

They end up with the 5th pick if a combination of 1-4 get the top three picks.

They end up with the 6th pick if a team ranked 6th or better ends up with a top 3 pick, bumping everyone down.

All that is off the top of my head, so I could be wrong.
 

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Tince said:
I think every team can get the #1, 2, 3, their current rank, or 1+ their current rank.

So if Portland had the 5th worst record, I think they can only end up with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, or 6th picks.

They end up with a top 3 pick if one of their combinations is drawn having them in the top 3.

They end up with the 5th pick if a combination of 1-4 get the top three picks.

They end up with the 6th pick if a team ranked 6th or better ends up with a top 3 pick, bumping everyone down.

All that is off the top of my head, so I could be wrong.
Mostly right, but if any team can get top 3, then three teams lower than us
can take 1, 2, and 3. Thus if we finish 6th, we can end up 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, or 9.

barfo
 

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barfo said:
Mostly right, but if any team can get top 3, then three teams lower than us
can take 1, 2, and 3. Thus if we finish 6th, we can end up 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, or 9.

barfo
Thank you, I knew I was missing something.

The odds of multiple teams behind us getting into the top 3 are very very slim. Correct?
 

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Tince said:
Thank you, I knew I was missing something.

The odds of multiple teams behind us getting into the top 3 are very very slim. Correct?
Correct. (300 bonus points for anyone who can compute the exact chances of that...)

barfo
 

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Hap said:
aren't there 2 picks that are impossible for Portland to get as the 5th or 6th worst team?

If we finished with the 6th worst record, we could wind up 1-2-3-6-7-8-9.

We can't get the 4-5th picks, nor could we drop lower than 9th.
 

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Any team in the lottery can get any of the top 3 picks. After the three top spots are selected (using the ping pong balls), the remaining spots are assigned by record.

If Portland finished with the 6th-best record, they could get the 1st, 2nd or 3rd spot (by getting one of their combinations selected), or the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th spots (if 0, 1, 2, or 3, respectively, teams behind them slipped into the top 3).

I believe that the reason the odds are so close between 4 and 5 in this simulator is because the Hawks and the Clippers tied record-wise.

I'd guess they averaged the two slots, so it would go something like:

2 200
3 157
4 119
5 90
6 64
7 37

Ed O.
 

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barfo said:
Correct. (300 bonus points for anyone who can compute the exact chances of that...)
I started to do this, but because last year's draft was atypical in that it had an expansion team, this is a lot of work (and that's why you were willing to give so many bonus points).

Based on last year's numbers, the odds of NO teams 7-13 moving into the top 3 was 62.47% (the sum of the differences between 1 and the sum of their chances for the top 3 appearance).

If someone wants to rework the 2005 lottery chances, I'll put the finishing touches on figuring out the odds of teams leapfrogging Portland :)

Ed O.
 

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Ed O said:
I started to do this, but because last year's draft was atypical in that it had an expansion team, this is a lot of work (and that's why you were willing to give so many bonus points).

Based on last year's numbers, the odds of NO teams 7-13 moving into the top 3 was 62.47% (the sum of the differences between 1 and the sum of their chances for the top 3 appearance).

If someone wants to rework the 2005 lottery chances, I'll put the finishing touches on figuring out the odds of teams leapfrogging Portland :)

Ed O.
I looked into it too, but it's way too much work. Especially since this information will be out in about a month.
 

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The Bobcats can't get the first pick in the lottery this year though, correct?
 

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HearToTemptYou said:
The Bobcats can't get the first pick in the lottery this year though, correct?
Incorrect as far as I know. I've never read (other than from some people on this board) that that is the case.

Ed O.
 

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Ed O said:
Incorrect as far as I know. I've never read (other than from some people on this board) that that is the case.

Ed O.
Have you ever read that it ISN'T the case? Does anyone know of a good site where we can confirm it one way or the other?
 

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Ed O said:
Incorrect as far as I know. I've never read (other than from some people on this board) that that is the case.

Ed O.
I may be thinking of the Bobcat's Salary Cap limitations being limited next year, and mixing it up with their drafting capabilities.
 
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