I pretty much agree with Tony's analysis of the probable starting 5's. I think much of the game hangs on Dubois' ability to stay out of foul trouble, since MC doesn't really have another big man they can rely on at this point.
Still, SHU has issues, aside from their coaching. While last year's SHU team was mediocre, at best, will they be able to replace Cerasoli, Allen, Sweet, and Morris - 4 of their top 6 players from last year - better than Manhattan can replace their best player (Mulligan)?
I also don't think that the Kids in the Hall get a whole lot of lift from playing in the cavernous Brendan Byrne Branniff Airlines Arena, especially against lightly regarded non-conference fodder. Last year, albeit with a largely different cast of characters, SHU barely squeaked past SPC by 3, St. Francis by 1, and a decent Drexel team by 4.
If the assumption that the better mid-majors can compete with the bad teams from major conferences is true, Manhattan should win this one. I will be very disappointed if they don't.