Most years I'd agree with you. But this draft is pretty bad. I'd certainly take Marcus Smart over MCW, but really, outside McLemore and Muhammad, we're just discussing roleplayers of varying quality. I mean we're discussing a Larry Sanders type guy as the #3 pick. And it goes downhill rapidly from there.To me he's completely undraftable in the lottery. His shot is so bad that it undermines everything he does well.
I agree with most of your evaluation of his struggles this year, but this is one of those drafts that I'm not comfortable projecting outside the top three. I mean Vic Oladipo, who still looks like a roleplayer level talent to my eyes, is likely going mid lottery (and I will grant that he's really improved since last year and may have enough growth left in his game to justify the choice) and guys like Mason Plumlee are getting lottery buzz. Right now I have Marcus Smart #4 on my board with Zeller at #5. And after that I think it's a crapshoot. He could go anywhere from 6-20 and I wouldn't be the least surprised.He runs the pick and roll better than most college point guards and is a good passer, but he's not a virtuoso. He is still constantly getting in trouble by leaving his feet. His shot has regressed and he isn't finishing at the rim anymore. His assist numbers went up in the big east tournament because Southerland went blazing hot from the three point line.
How many Syracuse players have looked good defensively in college and then struggled in the NBA? Every single one of them ever? Boeheim's zone does not prepare guys to be NBA players.
I think he's played his way out of the top 10. He will go somewhere where he fits but nobody is going to try to fit themselves to him like it looked like they would a couple months ago.