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Jason Kidd will NOT sign with Golden State--so which dude below should they go get?

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Discussion Starter #1
Fellers, there aren't going to be many takers out there for these three dudes, you need to understand that! You're not going to get anything GOOD for these guys--so you need to DUMP them! ESPECIALLY if you think the Warriors are going to make a run at Jason Kidd next summer!

The Warriors presently have just over $40 mil in committed payroll for 2003-04. In other words, Golden State will NOT be far at ALL under the salary cap--which means that Golden State CANNOT make Jason Kidd a big (or even a medium-sized) offer! SO, you're going to have to get rid of some of these ugly contracts in order to make him a big offer!

[NOTE: Of course, there is NO WAY that Jason Kidd is going to sign with THE WARRIORS--but getting rid of these three dudes is STILL a great idea!]

Somebody around here suggested Danny Fortson to the Lakers for Tracy Murray and Samaki Walker, whose contracts BOTH expire after next season. The Lakers won't do this, because Jerry Buss isn't interested in paying the luxury tax. Take a look at what Shaq, Kobe, Rick Fox, Derek Fisher, and Devean George COMBINED will be making in 2004-05:

$59 million

That's just five guys, people! Add in Stanislav Medvedenko, Kareem Rush, and whoever else, and you're ALREADY looking at a payroll that isn't going to make Buss very happy! IN OTHER WORDS, The Lake Show will NOT take on Danny Fortson for the next four years.

HOWEVER, I think The Lake Show would gladly take on the versatile Bobby Sura in exchange for Samaki Walker and Tracy Murray. Sura has just two more years left on his contract (not one, TWO), and he can fill Brian Shaw's role for The Lake Show (since Shaw himself can't really do it anymore). Sura would be a nice fit in L.A., don't you think?

SO, here's Trade #1:

Bobby Sura to the Lakers; Samaki Walker and Tracy Murray to the Warriors

Murray wouldn't touch the floor, Samaki probably WOULD play some minutes in 2002-03 if/when Dampier gets shipped off, but both guys are goners after next season. So this move clears over $6 mil off the 2003-04 payroll.

AS FOR FORTSON AND DAMPIER. Fortson is an INCREDIBLY difficult player to trade, because he has four more years left on his contract and, well, because he just isn't a very good NBA player. Take a look at Fortson's 2001-02 statistics:

28.8 minutes/game
42.8 FG%
11.2 points/game
11.7 rebounds/game
127 total assists (in 77 games)
160 total turnovers
44 total steals (0.57 steals/game)
17 total blocks (0.22 blocks/game)

Several things stand out here. First, the dude is a power forward and he is shooting 42.8% from the field. How many big guys had worse shooting percentages in the league last season? Antonio Davis, Clifford Robinson--and that's IT! Second, take a look at that assist-to-turnover ratio--127 assists and 160 turnovers is a woeful 0.79 ratio. Only 44 players in the league had MORE turnovers than did Fortson--and most of these were backcourt players, who naturally are going to turn the ball over more than frontcourt players. How many guys with as many or more total turnovers had a WORSE assist-to-turnover ratio than did Fortson last season? Alonzo Mourning, Jermaine O'Neal, Michael Olowokandi, Erick Dampier (!)--and that's IT! Finally, take a look at the dude's inability to block shots, WOW, only 0.22 blocks/game. How many power forwards or centers blocked FEWER shots/game than did Fortson (guys who played 70+ games, that is)? Stanislav Medvedenko--and that's IT! To make matters WORSE, Medvedenko averaged WAY FEWER MINUTES than did Fortson, 10.3 minutes/game vs. 28.8 minutes/game--if you go by blocked shots/48 minutes rather than blocked shots/game, here's how many power forwards or centers averaged FEWER blocks/game than did Fortson: ZERO!

And I understand that Fortson was fourth in the league in rebounds/game--but please understand that the Warriors were the WORST SHOOTING TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. Missed shots = rebounds! In fact, the Warriors were SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the next-to-worst shooting team, the Detroit Pistons--take a look:

Golden State = 40.9 FG%
Detroit Pistons = 42.4 FG%

Throw in the fact that Fortson was SEVENTH in the league in technical fouls (with 16 on the season), and you're looking at a pretty undesirable player!

NOW! How many teams in the league could put together a package that the Warriors would be interested in for one or both of these two players (Fortson and Dampier)? Two teams: Orlando and Philly. Orlando would be able to offer THIS package of guys with expiring contracts for Dampier:

Don Reid, Andrew DeClercq, and Patrick Ewing (who hasn't retired YET, so he's still tradeable) to the Warriors; Erick Dampier to the Magic

But that means that you're STILL stuck with Fortson, who Orlando will NOT take. The only way you dump Dampier AND Fortson is with Philly--take a look at THIS trade:

Derrick Coleman, Mark Bryant, Alvin Jones, and Damone Brown to the Warriors; Dampier and Fortson to the 76ers

All four of those guys coming over will be off the books FOREVER after next season. Dampier would give Philly a legitimate backup center (which they're going to need for the next few years, as Dikembe Mutombo's back can't really handle more than about 25 minutes/game), while Fortson is a hometown boy, and supposedly Larry Brown likes Fortson. Of course, Philly will have even MORE problems scoring after this deal, but it DOES give Brown a couple of live bodies to throw at there in the smaller Eastern Conference.

PEOPLE! That's the ONLY WAY your team gets rid of Danny Fortson's contract! THAT'S IT! Go ahead, see for yourselves--no other team in the league will be interested in letting the Warriors dump Fortson in their laps--unless, of course, the Warriors take on an undesirable multiyear contract in RETURN for Fortson, which it doesn't want to do!

ANYWAY, after these two deals--Sura to the Lakers, Fortson and Dampier to the 76ers--go down, and after all these guys the Warriors are getting in these two deals (along with Chris Mills) are off the books after next season, HERE is what the Warriors are looking at in July 2003:

PG Gilbert Arenas--Steve Logan
SG Jason Richardson--Jiri Welsch
SF Mike Dunleavy
PF Antawn Jamison--Troy Murphy
C Adonal Foyle

Committed payroll: around $30 million

This means that the Warriors would be able to throw a fair amount of money SOMEBODY'S way next offseason! The Warriors could at least then MAKE JASON KIDD A REASONABLE OFFER--something that they CANNOT DO unless they dump these three dudes!

Again, the Warriors will NOT get Jason Kidd, but they CAN get this guy: MICHAEL OLOWOKANDI. The Clips obviously aren't going to max this guy out, nor does he deserve to be maxed out. Here are some other guys who the Warriors can offer a huge max-out (or NEAR max-out) contract to (besides Kidd):

Steve Francis (Although the Rockets will match any offer)
Elton Brand (But it makes no sense to have Brand AND Jamison)
Lamar Odom (Could this guy play PG? I doubt it!)
Wally Szczerbiak (But this sends Dunleavy or J-Rich to the bench)
Shawn Marion (Although the Suns will match any offer)
Tim Duncan (Uh, yeah, RIGHT!)
Jason Terry (Although he's not a true PG)
Baron Davis (Who will probably accept Charlotte's offer soon)
Andre Miller (Cleveland won't match a huge offer)
Richard Hamilton (Washington won't match a huge offer)
Jermaine O'Neal (Indiana will match any offer)
Brad Miller (Indiana WON'T match a huge offer, not worth max)
Jonathan Bender (Indiana WON'T match a huge offer)
Alonzo Mourning (Too risky)
Gary Payton (SURELY the Sonics will take care of this guy!)

SO, here is a list of guys who MIGHT sign with the Warriors, and who the Warriors could really USE:

Gary Payton
Andre Miller
Michael Olowokandi

The other dudes on that list I either DON'T LIKE, or they DON'T FIT INTO the Warriors' plans, or WON'T SIGN with Golden State ANYWAY. These three dudes--Gary Payton, Andre Miller, and Michael Olowokandi--are the three dudes that Warriors fans need to be thinking about! NOT JASON KIDD! Get real, people!
 

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I don't think the Lakers are looking to dump Walker, they need him for whatever inside presence he can offer. As for Golden State, with Richardson and Arenas improving rapidly and with the chance to sign free agents in the upcoming years, this team is gonna be good. They lack a "west" center and they lack a true pg, since Mookie is washed up and Arenas is really not a true pg. Maybe if Jamison can step up his game, it will help attract some free agents. Golden State does not have a very big market for basketball compared to the LA teams. I think Golden State needs to do the Clippers trick and go all young and start with Richardson and Arenas.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Originally posted by allenive21
I don't think the Lakers are looking to dump Walker, they need him for whatever inside presence he can offer. As for Golden State, with Richardson and Arenas improving rapidly and with the chance to sign free agents in the upcoming years, this team is gonna be good. They lack a "west" center and they lack a true pg, since Mookie is washed up and Arenas is really not a true pg. Maybe if Jamison can step up his game, it will help attract some free agents. Golden State does not have a very big market for basketball compared to the LA teams. I think Golden State needs to do the Clippers trick and go all young and start with Richardson and Arenas.
You MAY be right about the Lakers and Samaki Walker--I think he sucks a LOT, but L.A. DOES need a big body to throw out there when Shaq is on the bench (or when he's injured, which is fairly often). The Lakers COULD make this deal and then go sign a Brian Skinner or a Vladimir Stepania to replace Samaki. Or they COULD just stick with Brian Shaw and hope that Kareem Rush is ready to contribute during his rookie season.

In any event, the Warriors NEED to DUMP these guys, don't you think?
 

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HOW DO YOU KNOW??

"NOTE: Of course, there is NO WAY that Jason Kidd is going to sign with THE WARRIORS--but getting rid of these three dudes is STILL a great idea!]"

Do you have J-Kidd's phone number? Is that how you know he wont sign? DUDE, he plays for the NETS! The stinking NETS! After he played there, you cant tell me he wont play for the W's. I will admit it's unlikely but not impossible.

It's offseason, I am allowed to be optimistic.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Originally posted by fury29
"NOTE: Of course, there is NO WAY that Jason Kidd is going to sign with THE WARRIORS--but getting rid of these three dudes is STILL a great idea!]"

Do you have J-Kidd's phone number? Is that how you know he wont sign
It's (517) 439-8878. His cell phone, that is.

Gary Payton is from the bay area, too, correct? I think the Warriors should let everybody else go nuts next summer for Jason Kidd and go after Payton instead. Jason Kidd shoots less than 40% from the field, give me a break--I'll take Gary Payton over Kidd ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. Of course, I'm in a small minority here. Take a look at their stats from last season:

Payton

82 games played
40.3 minutes/game
46.7 FG%
31.4 3Pt%
79.7 FT%
22.1 points/game
9.0 assists/game
2.5 turnovers/game
4.8 rebounds/game
1.6 steals/game
0.3 blocks/game

Kidd

82 games played
37.3 minutes/game
39.1 FG%
32.1 3Pt%
81.4 FT%
14.7 points/game
9.9 assists/game
3.5 turnovers/game
7.3 rebounds/game
2.1 steals/game
0.2 blocks/game

I don't know--Payton plays more minutes, his FG% is much higher, he's a much better scorer, his assist-to-turnover ratio is much better. Kidd has a significant edge in only two categories: steals/game and rebounds/game. And steals/game is a totally misleading statistic, as we should all know.

I'll take Payton any day of the week!
 

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I'd take Payton too Robyg but I have not read payton in the papers even REMOTELY warming to the idea of playing for the Warriors like J kidd. Actually like most Warriors fans, I would take either one.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
Originally posted by fury29
I'd take Payton too Robyg but I have not read payton in the papers even REMOTELY warming to the idea of playing for the Warriors like J kidd. Actually like most Warriors fans, I would take either one.
No, I can't imagine that Payton would ever sign with Golden State--but you never know. If Golden State dumps these guys and gets way under the cap for next summer, and if they make Payton a significantly better offer than Seattle or anybody else, WELL, I don't know, it could happen.

What Payton has going against him is that he'll be 35 next summer. Teams are going to balk at giving him, say, a four year max-out offer because of his age--they'll go after younger guys like Jason Kidd, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, Michael Olowokandi, Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Steve Francis (the list goes on and on). I have a feeling that Payton may not get many offers that he likes. And I'm not even sure if the Sonics will "take care of him" like they should.

If the Warriors step in and offer him a four year, max-out offer, well, I don't know. Payton wants the team to extend his contract NOW--and they're not doing it. He'll want the Sonics to extend his contract ALL SEASON LONG. By next July, he may be pretty disgusted with Sonics management--ESPECIALLY if they make a run at Jason Kidd (which is the speculation around the league, since supposedly Kidd is pretty friendly with Seattle's owner or team president or somebody). Let's say Seattle tries to sign Jason Kidd next summer--THEN Golden State steps in and makes Payton a four year max-out offer--THEN Kidd signs somewhere else--THEN Seattle matches Golden State's offer. What would YOU do if YOU were Gary Payton? I'll tell you what he SHOULD do, he SHOULD tell the Sonics where exactly they can stick their offer after all that!

That scenario isn't such a longshot, is it?

Of course, if the Warriors ALSO make Kidd an offer BEFORE they make one to Payton, you can forget about it. Pride matters in the NBA, you know, especially to a guy like Payton! Which is why the Warriors need to realize that they have NO SHOT at Jason Kidd, but that they COULD have a shot at a Gary Payton or one of these guys that are looking forward to dealing with Donald Sterling next summer (Andre Miller and Michael Olowokandi). THOSE are they guys the Warriors should target, NOT Kidd.
 

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How about this trade?

Juwon Howard and George McCloud for Dampier, Fortson, Mills, and Sura.

Denver would consider this as they only have seven players signed that have nba experience. This would give them good depth without giving up any of their young players.

The Warriors would do this because both Howard and McCloud are off the books next year.

New lineups could be as follows:
GS
Arenas/Logan
Richardson/Welsch
Dunleavy/McCloud
Jamison/Murphy
Howard/Foyle

Den
Jackson/Sura
Posey/Mills
Tskitishvili/Harvey/Bowen
Camby/Fortson
Dampier/Hilario

Any Thoughts?
 

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Discussion Starter #10
DUDE!

Originally posted by dom80
How about this trade? Juwon Howard and George McCloud for Dampier, Fortson, Mills, and Sura.
Talk about a trade that IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Why do you think Kiki Vandeweghe traded LaFrentz and Van Exel (and junk) away for Juwan Howard? Why do you think he is going to be so far under the salary cap next summer? SO HE CAN MAKE A RUN AT A COUPLE OF THOSE AWESOME 2003 FREE AGENTS!

The Nuggets suck. So, why would they go and trade for a bunch of guys who have led the Warriors to the bottom of the league over the past few seasons? Why would they do that? Answer: THEY WON'T DO THAT.

The Warriors are going to have a very difficult time dumping Fortson, Dampier, and Sura, no doubt about it. They may not be able to do it. One thing's for sure, Denver's not going to bail them out! This isn't my opinion, this is a fact!
 

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NEWS FLASH! PAYTON JOINS THE WARRIORS!

I like your optimism Roby g. I could not think of a better place for the glove to finish out his carreer, his home town naturally! That would be the best and your scenario is not that far from reality. I am all for it, unless of coursed Arenas blows everybodys expectations away. then maybe we target a top notch center instead? Who knows..

Is it November yet?
 

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Re: DUDE!

Originally posted by robyg1974


Talk about a trade that IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Why do you think Kiki Vandeweghe traded LaFrentz and Van Exel (and junk) away for Juwan Howard? Why do you think he is going to be so far under the salary cap next summer? SO HE CAN MAKE A RUN AT A COUPLE OF THOSE AWESOME 2003 FREE AGENTS!

The Nuggets suck. So, why would they go and trade for a bunch of guys who have led the Warriors to the bottom of the league over the past few seasons? Why would they do that? Answer: THEY WON'T DO THAT.

The Warriors are going to have a very difficult time dumping Fortson, Dampier, and Sura, no doubt about it. They may not be able to do it. One thing's for sure, Denver's not going to bail them out! This isn't my opinion, this is a fact!
I agree. In fact, I don't think all the warriors mentioned on your first post would get trade due to the luxury tax issue. Some teams might want Bob Sura due to his versatility but no one will take Fortson and Dampier, highly unlikely...
 

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I think they dont have a chance at Miller or Olowakandi, so I gotta say Payton is the only realistic option.
 
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