A fiend of mine who thinks that the lottery is rigged, just bet me $20 that LA will get a top 3 pick. I have never heard anyone claiming the lottery is rigged, have any of you heard this assertion? Do we need to be worring about how the blazers are going to be shafted on purpose?
OT: A Bet (the draft)
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It's a "conspiracy," for the most part, that originated when the Knicks got the #1 overall pick to draft Patrick Ewing. Honestly, I don't think there's much validity to it. But, with that being said, I'm not sure what, exactly, Stern is capable of pulling. If I had to guess, I'd say that your bet is probably, relatively, safe. Then again, you just never know. I guess we'll see. If L.A. ends up with a top-3 pick, I know that I, for one, will be going ape-****.thylo said:
:curse:
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Although I don't think it "rigged", I can't explain the good fortune of some of the better teams over the years at the low end of the lottery. NY, Orlando, San Antonio, are all teams that benefitted greatly with landing in the lottery without being the "worst" team.
I really believe the changes the lottery has gone through since 1985 all have improved it to near infallibility. But, it is still a Lottery.
I really believe the changes the lottery has gone through since 1985 all have improved it to near infallibility. But, it is still a Lottery.
More or less, I agree. I just wish they'd go back to televising the order being established, when the balls are actually being pulled out of the hopper. That way, at least we get to see the order being established before our eyes, thus limiting, or eliminating rather, any conspiracy theories that may exist.RedHot&Rolling said:
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The actual drawing of balls could make very boring TV. The team with the most balls get 250 balls. Next gets 200 balls. That's potentially alot of sucking balls being drawn out of the hopper without getting a third pick! It could take hours.
That's why no TV.
Back in 1985 it was 12 balls only. Every team had the same chance.
That's why no TV.
Back in 1985 it was 12 balls only. Every team had the same chance.
The problem with that is that it can take quite a while to decide the top 3 picks. As I understand it, there are 1000 combinations that can come up on each draw. Teams have a list of numbers based on order of finish. The first pick is quick since all numbers are available. Once that pick's done, that team's list of numbers are no longer in play, but the ping pong balls for the second pick could still come up with a combination on the first pick's list and then they have to draw again until an unused number comes up. The list of numbers not in play is greater for the third pick. It wouldn't exactly make for dramatic TV watching that process 93 times or so.CanJohno said:
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Yeah, but I understand why they do it how they do.CanJohno said:
Selection is made in the back room starting with #1 then #2 then #3. Then the rest of the teams get their slot based on their season record.
But for dramatic purposes, the league wants to start with the last team first and work their way up the list.
Plus, it might take several combinations for the #2 and #3 teams to be determined. Might not make the best television.
"Well, now that Golden State has won the first pick, we're ready to pick #2. And the combination comes up 6-4-11-9. That means that the second pick in the draft goes to - oh, that's Golden State's number. So it'll be a few seconds while we reset the machine.....OK, here's the combination for #2. And it's 2-12-8-6 which means that the second pick goes to - wow, another one of Golden State's numbers. So please bear with us, folks while we reset the machine once again...."
Agreed with it not being the best TV, but what else would NBA TV be showing?
As outlined previously, there are 14 balls put into a hopper, and 4 balls are selected in order. That yields 1001 potential outcomes:
(14*13*12*11)/(4*3*2*1)
(or 14!/((10!)(4!)) )
e-blazer is just about right in his assessment (the only caveat is that there is a 1 in 1001 chance that the first number selected will be the one not assigned to any team)... the first combo selected would be exciting, but the second and third ones might take a while.
In addition to the time element, the NBA has an interest in creating drama. The NBA lottery selection halftime, even if it's not the most exciting thing in the world, DOES offer a bit of drama as they list the teams in reverse lottery order.
Ed O.
As outlined previously, there are 14 balls put into a hopper, and 4 balls are selected in order. That yields 1001 potential outcomes:
(14*13*12*11)/(4*3*2*1)
(or 14!/((10!)(4!)) )
e-blazer is just about right in his assessment (the only caveat is that there is a 1 in 1001 chance that the first number selected will be the one not assigned to any team)... the first combo selected would be exciting, but the second and third ones might take a while.
In addition to the time element, the NBA has an interest in creating drama. The NBA lottery selection halftime, even if it's not the most exciting thing in the world, DOES offer a bit of drama as they list the teams in reverse lottery order.
Ed O.
OK, now that I see how the lottery is performed, I can completely understand why they don't televise the whole hopper process (on NBC, or TNT, or ESPN). I guess what I'm getting at, is... that to limit any thoughts about the existence of a conspiracy theory, they need to ensure the NBA fans that there is some credibility to their process. And, IMO, carrying out the entire process beind "closed doors," so-to-speak, doesn't seem like the best way to establish that credibility.
The only thing I can think of, off the top of my head (and they might already do this), would be to have a representative from each lottery team on hand, for the process. Then, at least, fans could rest assured that their team is getting a fair shake.
Good point, Ed O., about NBATV showing the lottery process. Why not air it on NBATV? I mean, are they going to be showing Rick Kamla and his [SARCASM]WONDERFUL[/SARCASM] Fantasy Hoops show? You know, where they show a half-hour of Fantasy Hoops, then a half-hour of that night's highlights (remember, we're talkin' 'bout the summer time, here; when there's no NBA hoops going on anyways), then back to Ricky Kamla (talkin' about his "boy, KG"), then back to the highlights, then back to Fantasy Hoops... ? LoL, I think you get the point. :biggrin: And, that is, that it's not likely that they are going to be showing anything else, of greater significance, during that time anyhow.
The only thing I can think of, off the top of my head (and they might already do this), would be to have a representative from each lottery team on hand, for the process. Then, at least, fans could rest assured that their team is getting a fair shake.
Good point, Ed O., about NBATV showing the lottery process. Why not air it on NBATV? I mean, are they going to be showing Rick Kamla and his [SARCASM]WONDERFUL[/SARCASM] Fantasy Hoops show? You know, where they show a half-hour of Fantasy Hoops, then a half-hour of that night's highlights (remember, we're talkin' 'bout the summer time, here; when there's no NBA hoops going on anyways), then back to Ricky Kamla (talkin' about his "boy, KG"), then back to the highlights, then back to Fantasy Hoops... ? LoL, I think you get the point. :biggrin: And, that is, that it's not likely that they are going to be showing anything else, of greater significance, during that time anyhow.
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The mistake your friend made was in being too specific. The Lakers may be the most likely candidate, but the T Wolves, Nets, and Knicks are also possibilities.thylo said:
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Oldmangrouch said:
Lakers and Knicks are always at the top of the conspiracy theories since they are the two largest markets in the NBA. The success of those teams leads to the most revenue in the NBA. New Jersey, being so close to NY and possibly moving to Brooklyn adds to their value. I understand Minnesotta still being potentially very good, but the market just isn't there like the other places.
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RedHot&Rolling said:
They should televise it on Lifetime.
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