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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Warning: Way Off Topic Thought of the Night.

Er, there's no topic to have veered off from...

Anyway, I was just thinking about field goal percentage and it ocurred to me how misleading the stat can potentially be for certain players.

Key point: Whether or not the player is fouled in the act of shooting.

If a player is fouled, the shot only counts as an attempt if it goes in. Thus, a player that is fouled frequently is getting a signifcant boost in the makes:attempts ratio, assuming missed shots.

For someone like Malone, who probably averages something like 5 trips to the line (2 shots per trip) and 20-25 shots a game for his career, that's up to 20% of his misses potentially being disregarded.

The math is a bit fast and loose, but hopefully it conveys the idea. In short, my thinking is that FG% by itself is not the most telling efficiency stat. Something that incorporates FT attempts would be more meaningful, which I suppose is sort of what the official efficiency formulas are attempting to do (plus all the other stats rolled in).

Has any field goal efficiency stat ever been produced that takes that aspect into account?

Dan
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Since this hasn't exactly turned into a barn burner of a topic, here's a little example to illustrate my point.

Let's say Malone takes 10 shots in a game and makes only 3 of them. That's a pretty lousy 30% night.

Now, let's say he was fouled on 4 of those missed attempts. Suddenly, he shot a very respectable 50% (3 of 6).

But wait, (here's where the math gets a bit fuzzy) if he made 2 of those shots he was fouled on, he jumps up to 63% (5 of 8).

Whether or not you accept the Part III calculations, you can see how a player's ability to draw fouls significantly affects his FG% numbers.

Dan
 
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