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Who do you think POR mgmt WILL take?

POR Threee Most Glaring Needs to Address

1164 Views 57 Replies 23 Participants Last post by  Utherhimo
I think the following three most glaring areas of need are important when discussing whom POR would pick. I ranked them in what I think would be the greatest area of importance to fill.

1) Lack of scoring - POR ranks dead last in offense, this is a major problem IMO...yeah it SHOULD get better as players (Webster/Jack/Telfair/Khryapa) improve, but if POR dumps Miles as I think they will...that won't help & I do think scoring will once again be a major issue. I think this is the #1 issue POR should look to address in the draft.

POTENTIAL PLAYERS WHO COULD FILL THIS NEED: Adam Morrison, Rudy Gay (projected), Rodney Carney

2) Lack of size\rebounding - POR has been killed on the boards this year. Part of this is Zach's lack of interest in defensive rebounding, but POR should NOT be as bad as they have looked at times...this is the most "fluid" situation...A lot of factors will determine how much interest POR will have in addressing "size" on draft day...namely...Will Pryzbilla return? Will Theo be dealt? What about Zach? Is Skinner coming back? HA isn't ready, and the status of all four "bigs" is somewhat up in the air. I think this is the #2 issue (and possibly #1 depending on what happens) POR should look to address in the draft\offseason.

POTENTIAL PLAYERS WHO COULD FILL THIS NEED: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Shelden Williams, Andrea Bargnani

3) POR "extreme" youth - By this I mean the HS kids, I think this coupled with "vets" failing to produce as expected has produced the lethal losing mix the team is suffering under now...It SHOULD get better as these young players mature, but I don't think mgmt is eager to go after another long term (2-3yr) project. I think this will be a consideration at draft time and certainly in free agency, how much so at draft time, I don't know...

POTENTIAL PLAYERS IN THE DRAFT WHO PROVIDE MORE "EXPERIENCE": Adam Morrison, Brandon Roy, Shelden Williams, Rodney Carney

Two things I see here, one is that (if) Thomas\Noah & Aldridge declare, then the draft will be strong (at the top) in size....All of the bigs (outside of Shelden Williams) are very young though, meaning 2-3 year projects...POR could use another big though...POR needing size and the possible strength at this position could be a strong factor in POR leaning this way

Secondly, I think a key question is will youth scare off POR? Thomas is a freshman, Noah\Aldridge are sophmores...Bargnani is 19? 20?...Given the slow maturation process of Outlaw\Telfair and Webster, would mgmt really add ANOTHER 2-3 year project?

My answer is, I don't think POR mgmt is nearly as skittish as fans are to not draft a 2-3 year project AGAIN....If they project Thomas\Noah or Bargnani as the player with the greatest upside, I think they will take them...but I do think if all things are equal, or close to equal in their eyes, they may very well opt for an older player...be it Morrison, Roy or Williams....and I don't think "age" is the key factor here...I think maturation (both physically and mentally) is more the gauge. So where a Bargnani, who has been playing in a tough\tougher euroleague at 19-20, may be more ready and have more experience than a Tyrus Thomas, whose play has been sporadic as a redshirt frosh...I do think if mgmt viewed these two, for example as close, but liked Thomas' potential upside a little more but thought it might take significantly longer for him to potentially reach it, then there is a good chance they COULD lean towards the more experience player...be it Bargnani (in this example), Aldridge or Gay.

At this juncture, I think POR board is squarely centered around Adam Morrison...he fits the scoring the team needs, he is a more "experienced" player...he has local appeal, and yes to the dismay of some, he has some intangibles that other players in this draft do not....

After that, I would think Aldridge would be the 2nd choice (if he decalres), followed by Bargnani, whom both Pritchard (a few times I think) and Nash have scouted...

However, one important factor will be how guys like Thomas & Noah (if they declare), Gay and Roy work out for POR, I think it is very likely that outside of probably Morrison\Aldridge, one of these guys could rise to the top of the board....particulary so if Morrison and Aldridge are gone.

I'd like to see what player everyone here thinks POR will pick, not who you think they should pick, but who current mgmt will take and why...I put a poll up as well.
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I think Portland will make the mistake of drafting the best available talent instead of drafting what they need. Assuming we draft 3rd after Morrison and one of the bigs "with potential" are gone, I see Portland drafting a Rudy Gay, despite being overloaded at the 3 to replace Darius Miles.
I agree that scoring is a big need, I also feel that Webster will come into that, I also feel that Outlaw still can be that 3rd scorer the 14ppg guy.

Fast Forward '07/'08
IMHO
Webster 22ppg
Zach (if here) 16ppg
Travis 14ppg

And we still have Telfair and Jack either would be a 14ppg and 7-8apg (maybe more) player.

Scoring even next year, with what we have now, is not nearly as much as a concern to me as rebounding, offensively and defensively. Portland is Dead last in scoring and rebounding. But I think if you boost rebounding scoring comes up with it with 2nd chance points and looks at the basket on the break.
Scoring can and should be addressed with the lotto pick:

Morrison or Roy should be taken here.

IMHO, Rodney Carney is as dumb as a post and is not a leader or someone to build around. Experience and leadership are also needed, Roy and Morrison provide both. Bargnani may be nice,but he cannot bring the leadership that Morrison or Ray would deliver.

Rebounding/Size can be addressed with the Det pick and the 2nd rounder:

Nick Fazekas is an option here as is Paul Millsap/Marco Killingsworth/Craig Smith/Justin Williams.

Ryan Hollins would be a good choice with the 2nd round pick. He has good athleticism at 7 feet and could easily add 15-20 lbs to his 225-230 now.
Draft Paul Davis with the low pick, if he's still there. DRAFT PAUL DAVIS!
Most glaring needs to address:
1. Lack of talent.
2. Lack of talent.
3. Lack of talent.

My draft recommendations (assuming we don't trade any picks)?
Our first pick: Best player available. Probably Morrison, but we won't know until we know what the order will be.
Detroit's pick: Best player available.
Our second rounder: Best player available.

Our team sucks so badly right now that you pretty much go with whatever gives us the biggest talent infusion. Chris Paul (I know, we're all sick of hearing it) pretty much proved once again that you draft on talent, not need, especially when you suck as bad as we do.
An interesting thing to consider....

Top 3 teams in the League are #1 Detroit, #2 San Antonio and #3 Dallas.

Least Points Allowed Per Game
#1 San Antonio
#3 Detroit
#7 Dallas

Points Scored Per Game
#8 Dallas
#16 Detroit
#21 San Antonio
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Schilly said:
I agree that scoring is a big need, I also feel that Webster will come into that, I also feel that Outlaw still can be that 3rd scorer the 14ppg guy.

Fast Forward '07/'08
IMHO
Webster 22ppg
Zach (if here) 16ppg
Travis 14ppg

And we still have Telfair and Jack either would be a 14ppg and 7-8apg (maybe more) player.

Scoring even next year, with what we have now, is not nearly as much as a concern to me as rebounding, offensively and defensively. Portland is Dead last in scoring and rebounding. But I think if you boost rebounding scoring comes up with it with 2nd chance points and looks at the basket on the break.

wow, you might want to check your VCR for damage...Webster 22 ppg?? Hell, it took Kobe 4 years, and you think it'll take Webster 3?
IMO:

1. A "superstar". Or two. Assuming we pick 1, 2, or 3 (a pretty safe bet), the Blazers should pick the guy with the most "superstar" potential available when their pick comes up. The NBA has a vested interest in promoting its "superstars". Don't believe me? Watch the NBA commercials on TV. Go scan through NBA.com. The NBA strives to make its superstars household names. They are the NBA's vehicle into the "casual fan". And the Blazers have a vested interest in promoting their brand (now moreso than ever, it seems). Oh, and superstars tend to get a fairer shake from the league refs, too. They need to hitch their wagon to a superstar - or two - first and foremost. The Blazers can meet this need in the draft (although it will take a couple of years for that player to step into the spotlight - there are no LeBrons or Carmellos in this draft).

2. Leadership. I don't consider more than 2-3 of our current players "leaders". Miles is a quitter. Zach is still more about his own game than the team's success (although that seems to be changing). Other guys are just too young or don't have innate leadership qualities. The only potential leaders I see here right now are Bassy, Jack, and Przybilla. And it's a crap-shoot as to whether Przybilla will be here next season, anyway. I don't see this need being met in the draft.

3. Experience. I agree on this front. We need a few vets (some of whom ideally would also meet the previous 2 needs) who can not only play the NBA game at a competitive level, but who also have the temperament to teach our kiddy corps how to do the same. I don't see this need being met in the draft, either.

Yeah, the Blazers need shooting. Yeah, the Blazers need rebounding / banging. But IMO what the Blazers need MOST is a legitimate interest story (i.e., superstar) - or two - and to solidify their competitive drive (leadership, experience). Those are the things that can't be developed in-house. Everything else can.

PBF
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SMiLE said:
wow, you might want to check your VCR for damage...Webster 22 ppg?? Hell, it took Kobe 4 years, and you think it'll take Webster 3?
Kobe was the 2nd Option to a guy...some big fella.
Schilly said:
Kobe was the 2nd Option to a guy...some big fella.
and kobe was also a LOT better than Webster is.

We should be glad if Webster increases his scoring next year by 3-4 points per game, and we should consider ourselves lucky if he's averaging double figures the year after that.
great point, PBF. we haven't had a legit superstar since Drexler left, and as a result it's always been an uphill battle for the Blazers in getting "superstar calls" from the refs, as well as just knowing who is going to succeed with the ball at the end of a tight game.

just think back to the greatest Blazer team we've had since Drexler--the 2000 WCF team. when Shaq leveled Steve Smith in that crucial play, no whistle. if we'd had a Dirk Nowitzki or Kobe Bryant on our team getting leveled instead, we get free throws. also, we probably don't choke away that final, fateful quarter with a bona fide superstar helping to carry the load.

I hate that we are a really bad lottery team. I've never bought into the "tear-down/rebuild" mindset.

but as long as we're in this mess, we should make the best out of it. I don't want to look back and say, "Oh yeah, that's the year we got the next Tyson Chandler or Antonio Daniels, and boy have they filled in a little niche."

I want to look back and say, "It sucked and I hated it, but I was wrong. It was all worthwhile because we got the next Garnett."

we're in the bottom of the toilet, boys. when in such a position, it's not about scrapping your way above all the other turds. it's about finding the one guy who is going to make it easy for us to be working the chrome handle in years to come.
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SMiLE said:
and kobe was also a LOT better than Webster is.

We should be glad if Webster increases his scoring next year by 3-4 points per game, and we should consider ourselves lucky if he's averaging double figures the year after that.
I don't know about that...5.7ppg 15.9mpg for Martell compared to Kobe and his 7.6ppg in 15.5mpg as a rookie....Identical rebounding numbers though ironically Kobe was a better assists guy.
Schilly said:
I don't know about that...5.7ppg 15.9mpg for Martell compared to Kobe and his 7.6ppg in 15.5mpg as a rookie....Identical rebounding numbers though ironically Kobe was a better assists guy.
Kobe was also much more creative on the offensive end.
theWanker said:
but as long as we're in this mess, we should make the best out of it. I don't want to look back and say, "Oh yeah, that's the year we got the next Tyson Chandler or Antonio Daniels, and boy have they filled in a little niche."

I want to look back and say, "It sucked and I hated it, but I was wrong. It was all worthwhile because we got the next Garnett."
Or Tim Duncan. How bad was San Antonio the year they drafted Duncan? And how many championships have they won since? For them, it all started with drafting their superstar.

PBF

EDIT: The answers to the above questions are: 20-62, and 3.
ProudBFan said:
Or Tim Duncan. How bad was San Antonio the year they drafted Duncan? And how many championships have they won since. For them, it all started with drafting their superstar.

PBF
It actually started for San Antonio a bit before that....if you recall David Robinson was injured early in the season the season before they landed Duncan. Robinson's injury obviously lead the Spur downhill to a position in which along with a stroke of luck they were able to land Duncan.
I am also going to say we draft none of these guys....the pick+ a player will be traded for a established veteran star or upcoming star. Just a hunch I have.

Otherwise we draft Morrison..word I hear is Blazers management has a hard on for that guy.
espn just updated their fun but meaningless "play the lottery" predictor -

http://sports-att.espn.go.com/nba/index?&lpos=globalnav&lid=gn_NBA_NBA

apparently we want morrison/noah/aldridge/and mcroberts(?) in that order lol

there is no scenerio where we take thomas or bargnani


edit: just hit a thomas after about 100 trys, so it might happen lol
sa1177 said:
Otherwise we draft Morrison..word I hear is Blazers management has a hard on for that guy.
Interesting. I wouldn't consider that thing a "porn 'stache".

PBF
sa1177 said:
I am also going to say we draft none of these guys....the pick+ a player will be traded for a established veteran star or upcoming star. Just a hunch I have.

Otherwise we draft Morrison..word I hear is Blazers management has a hard on for that guy.
Ive heard that they like Morrison a lot, but also like Thomas and Bargani..but that it's too soon to make a decision now before they have a chance to see them personally.

That is of course, unless they get the #1 pick and in that case I bet they know who they'll pick.
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