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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Laugh if you wish... but here is how a computer simulation sees the final 2003/2004 standings. For comparison, here is a replay of the season up to this point with actual and simulated results.

Replay of season so far

Now *drumroll* here is the rest of the season simulated, every pass shot and rebound:

2003/2004 Predicted Final Standings

This would leave us with the 10th and 13th picks in the draft (subject to lottery draw)

(and no... this isn't NBA Live =) is was done with Cactus Development's NBA Basketball simulation)
 

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I still think we will go on a rally and be 41-41 and barely make the playoffs..

:gopray:
 

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In that case I would lose 5 more games and have a better draft pick. Last in the west would give us the #2-3 pick. I would be happy with that. Pack our and Griz's pick and move up to #1 or get 2 quality guys. A PG with memphis' pick at #16 you can still find gem. (John Stockton was #15?)
Bring on the lotto balls. More we have the happier I am. :D
 

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How can the Heat be 29-53 I do not see any way that can happen, once wade gets back and riley makes some trades which would probably happen in the next couple of weeks we would be 8th in the playoff spot, and my final prediction for the Heat would be 42-40 and 6th in the playoffs... and I would say this even if I wasn't a Heat fan
 

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Paxil-

You can't forget about the BobCats getting the 4th pick. My math tells me that the Blazers get the 11th pick (provided we lose the lotto) and the 15th pick (provided the Grizzlies lose the lotto) with these standings.
 

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P.S.

How can we finish with a 2-0 record in overtime when we currently have a 3-0 record in overtime? We are 3-0, right? No wait, 3-1. We beat the Kings (twice) and the Pacers. We lost to the Clippers. Am I missing anything?
 

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Based purely on those standings, I believe this is how it would all look:

Western Playoffs First Round

MN (1) hosts Seattle (8)
Dal/Sac (4) hosts San Antonio (5)

LAL (2) hosts Houston (7)
Dal/Sac (3) hosts Denver (6)

[Dallas and Sacramento tie breakers would determine seeding.]

Eastern Playoffs First Round

Indiana (1) hosts Bos (8)
Mil (4*) hosts NO (5)

Detroit (3*) hosts Tor (6)
NJ (2*) hosts Phi (7)

[* : NJ gets second seed based on winning division but would not have HCA over lower-seeded Detroit or Milwaukee, which had more wins]

Non-playoff draft order (if lottery went per standings)

1. Washington (21 wins)
2. * Atlanta (28)
3. * Golden State (28)
4. Charlotte (expansion)
5. * New York (28)
6. * Orlando (28)
7. Miami (29)
8. Phoenix (29)
9. Chicago (30)
10. Cleveland (31)
11. Portland (32)
12. Utah (35)
13. LAC (37)
14. Memphis (38) --> Portland

15. Boston (33)
16. Philadelphia (35)
17. Toronto (42)
18. NO (43)
19. Seattle (44)

If Memphis and Seattle were exchanged, Memphis's pick would be somewhere between 17 and 19 (depending on if Seattle won fewer than 39 games or Memphis won more than 43). The Grizzlies missing the playoffs would cost us a couple of spots in the draft order, if things go according to this (and commone sense, since a couple teams with worse records in the east should slip in while the 9th and 10th seeds in the west should get higher picks...)

Ed O.
 

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Originally posted by <b>NathanLane</b>!
P.S.

How can we finish with a 2-0 record in overtime when we currently have a 3-0 record in overtime? We are 3-0, right? No wait, 3-1. We beat the Kings (twice) and the Pacers. We lost to the Clippers. Am I missing anything?
We actually are 3-2, losing in LA to the Clippers and in Seattle to the Sonics in OT.

Our first OT loss was January 5, which makes me wonder when the projected standings were run.

Ed O.
 

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Interesting stuff. I agree with most of the predictions, except for a couple...The Knicks with only 28 wins, they will win more (perhaps the prediction was made before the Marbury trade ?). The Kings only winning 54, maybe they will burn out in the second half of the season ? right now they are on pace for 60+ and with Webber coming back they will only be stronger. The Hawks and Bulls winning 28 and 30 also don't seem likely at this stage.

If that was done before the season started, then it's quite impressive accuracy. :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
The simulation was ran from the beginning of the season, it does not include any real life wins or losses, the rest of the season was simmed from the point in the first link.

It also does not take in to consideration that people will come back from injuries... because obviously they haven't yet.... but then again... someone may get injured. It is only a fair comparison when you think of 'if everything continued to proceed the way it is going, and everyone continues to play as much and as well as they have to this point'. Obviously, that doesn't happen, but it is a good yard stick none the less.

It does consider who was on the roster and not injured for each game so far... (ie in the replay Anderson is out most games for Portland) but obviously it can't predict future injuries.

It can give some incite into how strength of schedule might have benefited this team or that so far. Also... any team can easily slide 3-5 games either way with how the close games go.

The glaring thing I saw... is how utterly bad two of the teams are that will make playoffs in the East. Sim had Boston making playoffs with a 33-49 record. That just isn't cool.

It would be interesting say... see how Portland would be doing right now with last years Pippen and Sabonis. Or make a Wallace trade and see what the effect is.
 
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