[GrandpaBlaze]

I thought I'd give y'all a glimpse into the collective confidence in the Blazers ability to pull out a win. You can see the game-by-game confidence and then the running four-game average. We don't have enough games yet to see the running eight-game average.

The running averages provide a much better tool at seeing overall trends as they tend to smooth out the peaks and valleys.

Gramps...

 

[ABM]

Nice wrinkle, there, GB.

As we move forth, it'll be interesting to see the relativity between record and predictions. I'm sure there will be a pretty solid correlation, though. :yes:

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

As we move forth, it'll be interesting to see the relativity between record and predictions

Ah heck, why wait?

This updated graph shows the Blazers winning percentage (yellow line) going into the game. Thus, for the Hawks game it shows a 0% winning record 'cause going into the game we were 0-2. The victory over the Hawks is reflected in the winning percentage shown for the Knicks game.

Gramps...

 

[Backboard Cam]

Interesting... I don't really get the moving average thing though.

What if instead of win %, it was the difference between the blazers' win % and the team we played? I guess that would have to be % difference, and it might not fit on the chart...

I'm not a math genius, but this is interesting.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I don't really get the moving average thing though.

A moving average doesn't start until the requisite number of games have been played. For example, the four-game moving average starts a game four and shows the average of the confidence in the first four games. For game five, that average is then the average confidence of games 2-5, etc.

Does that make sense?

Because there will be peaks and valleys due to differences of teams records, road vs. home, etc. using a moving average provides a clearer view of an overall trend by smoothing out the variations and anomolies by combining the figures from a number of games together and then taking an average. By having both a four and an eight-game average, we get two different looks at the team.

Gramps...