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Discussion Starter #1
I've done a few revisions on this chart but here is one that clearly shows a correspondence between the Blazers record and the predictor confidence. Of course, the teams the play may also figure in but that is beside the point.

The predictor confidence is a moving average of five games so the first instance of predictor confidence is not shown until game five.

The Blazers winning percentage reflects the winning percentage going into the game. The game in question is reflected in the next game's winning percentage (i.e., game 1 there is no winning percentage as we are 0-0 going into the game. Game 2 the winning percentage is 0% as we are 0-1, etc.)

Enjoy.

Gramps...
 

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Nice work this chart is trying to show how many people said the Blazers would win a certain game?Like before all this Ruben stuff and the 2 game losing skid alot of people had more confidence that they could win more games.Am i confusing u?
 

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Discussion Starter #3
For this chart, I removed the individual game prediction percentages (they vary widely) and use a running average of five games to indicate overall predictor confidence. That should help take into account overall record, teams of different abilities, etc.

Gramps...
 

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You should forward these numbers onto the Blazers if you are going to put all this work into these numbers, someone on the Blazers would probably love to see a fan support metric like this. It would let them know how they are doing marketing this young team.
 
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