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Cosgrove was pissed

For everybody wipping on quick.....wwwwpppppsssh!


i think more people hate quick than sheed!
 

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My weekly re-cap:

1) Blazers are signing Eddie Gill today. Cook will play ahead of Gill

2) Jason thinks the PG situation has not been handled well (playing Woods there, Gill signed for the rest of the season while Cook is given only a 10 day deal, etc.)

3) "BothTeamsPlayedHard" wrote a long e-mail about the state of the NBA being in chaos financially. He finished by saying that he doesn't see the Blazers having a master plan other than to get under the cap. Jason says that this IS a master plan and it is a good one. He says Portland's only choice is to trade for shorter contracts and to bite the bullet in letting contracts expire. He also says that Blazer fans should be happy that the team will be a FA player in 2005.

4) The Blazers are not at playoff-caliber yet although they are playing better. Mo reports better execution, better implementation of the game plan and harder work. But they still have room to grow.

5) They could be in a postion to make a run for the playoffs with more wins in upcoming games, but that doesn't mean that they are truly a playoff-caliber team.

6) Randolph deserved an All-Star berth, but defense probably had something to do with him not getting it. Coaches see Zach's defensive liabilities. Kirilenko's all-around game beat out Zach's offense-minded game.

7) Does Zach understand this? Not fully. Going through the disappointment might help him understand it better. Mo did praise Zach for his defense last night.

8) Following up from a question earlier in the season, is the focus on Zach starting to wear on the other players? Yes, the other Blazers are getting tired of his defensive liabilities and unwillingness to pass. This is especially true of Rasheed who covers for Zach more than anyone on the court. Zach's single-mindedness on scoring is wearing thin on the rest of the team.

9) Would more technicals be worth having Rasheed exhibit more fire and passion? Yes, as long as he doesn't get kicked out of games. This is his job, he should play hard all the time. Jason thinks that Wallace "mailed it in" in the second half of the Denver game and that he let the team down by getting kicked out last night.

10) Mo says the 4th quarter was an abberation last night because Patterson and Wallace weren't available. There's no explanation for the "meltdown", but it is a real issue.

11) Portland is set on keeping Rasheed for the rest of the year. Staff that just a month ago said that they would bet that Sheed would be traded are now saying that he will be retained. This has positively affected Sheed's attitude.

12) Wallace will not be a Blazer next year. There's "not a chance in heck" that the team re-signs him - unless it's in a sign-and-trade deal.

13) A fair contract for Wallace next year would be $6-8 million

14) Cook will probably be signed for the rest of the year.

15) Miles might be retained by the Blazers. Jason sees a 50% chance of this happening. Wallace and Person will be gone, however.

16) [My question] Should Person be used as trade bait for a team that wants cap space this summer? Jason doesn't think that Person has allure and he thinks the Blazers would rather save the full $7.7 million.

17) When Stepania plays for longer stretches, his performance is better. But overall he has still been a disappointment this season.

18) Portland should beat Utah tomorrow.

19) Portland will have its hands full with Seattle, who gives Portland fits. Barry being out helps the Blazers. By the way, Jason thinks that the Blazers are looking at Barry as a potential FA this summer.

20) Any trades for the Blazers before the trading deadline? Jason thinks they're done trading, although anything can happen. Mo talks about teams that he's been on where a trade came out of nowhere hours before the deadline.
 

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My responses on a few issues:

3) "BothTeamsPlayedHard" wrote a long e-mail about the state of the NBA being in chaos financially. He finished by saying that he doesn't see the Blazers having a master plan other than to get under the cap. Jason says that this IS a master plan and it is a good one. He says Portland's only choice is to trade for shorter contracts and to bite the bullet in letting contracts expire. He also says that Blazer fans should be happy that the team will be a FA player in 2005.
I'd be happier if someone could demonstrate to me that there will be FA's worth going after....

10) Mo says the 4th quarter was an abberation last night because Patterson and Wallace weren't available. There's no explanation for the "meltdown", but it is a real issue.
I didn't see the game, but it sounds like the "meltdown" coincided with a team-wide decision to shoot nothing but jump shots.

16) [My question] Should Person be used as trade bait for a team that wants cap space this summer? Jason doesn't think that Person has allure and he thinks the Blazers would rather save the full $7.7 million.
I disagree, of course. I think that his expiring contract has plenty of allure. I also think that the Blazers would be better served in "buying" instead of "selling".

19) Portland will have its hands full with Seattle, who gives Portland fits. Barry being out helps the Blazers. By the way, Jason thinks that the Blazers are looking at Barry as a potential FA this summer.
Not if the team is absolutely committed on getting under the cap in 2005. No big FA's until 2005 or else they won't have enough room to be a major player.
 

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Thanks for posting the recap, SCBF. It sounds like Quick's as in the dark as we all are about what (if anything) is going to happen next.

Ed O.
 

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10) Mo says the 4th quarter was an abberation last night because Patterson and Wallace weren't available.
That's a load of b.s. If Mo truly believes it to be the case, it's yet another indication of how clueless he truly is. The meltdown started long before the 4th quarter. The 3rd quarter wasn't much better, and I could already see the wheels starting to fall off in the 2nd.

I was thinking throughout much of the game, "This game should be much more enjoyable than it is. The Blazers look like they're losing, not ahead by 20." Didn't take long before that was nearly the case.

Dan
 

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Thanks SCBF for your weekely recap. We appreciate you doing it.
 

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I just don't understand why it takes Portland a whole quarter to D up on a guy who's on fire! :sigh:

That's the real problem!
 

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Originally posted by <b>STOMP</b>!

Would signing Barry to an MLE deal (the most they will be able to offer) really sabotage that cause?
Yep.

As it sits now, Portland would have the following contracts on the books if they let everyone walk (Wallace, Stoudamire, Davis, Miles, etc):

Anderson - $9.03 million
Patterson - $6.35 million
Woods - $1.80 millon [I'm assuming they pick up the 4th year option]
Outlaw - $1.01 million
Portland's 2004 pick - $1.76 million [Assuming the #12 pick]
Memphis' 2004 pick - $1.24 million [Assuming the #19 pick]
Portland's 2005 pick - $1.75 million [My best guess]

That's $22.94 million for 7 players. Also, Zach Randolph will count as $5.42 million against the cap as a RFA. That's $28.36 million.

Now, because the team has less than 11 players, they also get charged 3 rookie minimum salaries against the cap. They haven't published the minimum rookie salary in 2005 yet (because that will be determined by the new CBA), but the average raise for rookies over the last couple of years has been 5%, so I'll use that as a guide. That would make the 3 rookie slots charged against the Blazer cap $1.21 million, which brings the Blazers' team salary up to $29.57 million on July 1st, 2005.

NCBullsFan anticipates a salary cap of $45 million in 2004-05, which would represent a 2.6% increase over this year's salary cap. Assuming another 2.6% increase gives us a projection of $46.17 million for 2005-06's salary cap. That would give the Blazers $16.6 million in cap room.

This all assumes that the Blazers could use this cap room to sign an UFA before they have to re-sign Randolph to a contract larger than his qualifying offer (certainly more than the $5.42 million that he counts against the cap once the qualifying offer is made).

Now let's throw an MLE-level FA signing in 2004 to the mix. My salary figures indicate (and this has been confirmed by NCBullsFan) that the MLE will actually drop a bit in 2004 to [my guess]$4.89 million. So, a standard MLE signing of Barry - or anyone else would mean taking at least $4.89 million and potentially up to $5.38 million off of that cap figure in 2005. Bringing the $16.6 million in cap room down to $11.62-12.11 million (after adding back in one of the rookie salary slots charged against the team since it has 9 players instead of 8) . In other words, about $12 million or just below that figure.

Now, if the new CBA is similar to the current one on salary restrictions, a $46.17 salary cap means that any UFA with 6 or less years of service can be offered a maximum of $11.54 million for the first year. The max for a player with 7-9 years of service would be $13.85 million. The max for a player with 10+ years of service would be $16.16.

So, if the Blazers are looking at signing someone like Shane Battier or Eddy Curry, they'd have enough room to make a maximum offer. But those are RFA's.

If the Blazers are looking at signing someone like Ray Allen, Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Tracy McGrady, they would NOT have enough room to make a maximum offer. This, of course, assumes that McGrady opts out and that Allen and Abdur-Rahim are allowed to walk away as UFA's.

So, yes, the simple signing of Barry to a MLE-level deal probably takes the Blazers out of the running for an UFA who is going to want a maximum contract in 2005. BTW, re-signing Miles for MLE-level money this summer does the same thing.

Finally, this also assumes that Sinanovic hasn't yet signed with the team for anything more than the rookie minimum in 2005. If he does, that represents even less cap room.

In other words, the only way that the Blazers can assure themselves of having enough cap room to offer the max to their FA of choice in 2005 is to let Wallace, Person and Miles all walk this summer. Sign no FA's except for one year deals in 2004-05. Then let Davis, Stoudamire and Stepania walk in 2005 and not offer Randolph a new contract until after they've signed a FA.

If we KNEW that McGrady or Allen would be available, such a risk MIGHT be worth it. But we don't even know that they will....

You get what I'm saying. Going after cap room in 2005 means going Cold Turkey in terms of significant FA signings (and potentially in trades, seeing as how the only conceivable trades would be those that return expiring contracts) between now and July 2005.
 

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STOMP -

That was probably a longer answer than you were looking for. I put these numbers together a couple of nights ago and was waiting for the "opportune moment" to bring them out. Your question gave it to me. Sorry if I overwhelmed you.

The short answer is "Yes, it does." ;)
 

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Originally posted by <b>So Cal Blazer Fan</b>!
STOMP -

That was probably a longer answer than you were looking for.
I was about 2/3rds of the way through your first post and was thinking... wow, I'm actually following along with all this number crunching without falling asleep, man do I like hoops or what? ummmmm crunching... and about then the old whats the answere already?/college guess mechanism kicked in and I figured that you wouldn't be going to such lengths to prove yourself wrong :laugh:

Still, that 12 mil figure is essencially a full max offer for a top young guy (sub 7 years in the league), or two slots well over competing MLE offers from other clubs. Thats the route I'd expect Portland to go if they just let players clear.

Anyhoo, the detailed response is appreciated, and only stirs me up as to whats possibly on the horizon. On the one hand... banking on FA signings is dicey at best, renouncing talent to suck in the meantime isn't much fun, and it seems that since so many others are playing the get under the salary cap game that quality could be had for Portland's various expiring deals. Conversely, what could work in favor of the let everyone clear school of thought is if Portland's braintrust feels that they have diamonds in the rough in Outlaw and Nedzad and that their scouts are so first rate, that they'd be fools not to position themselves near the top of the draft a time or two. Personally I think the important thing is to get talented players with reasonable deals on board. Those sorts of players are tradeable if things don't work out.

Again, thanx for the fodder.

STOMP
 

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Originally posted by <b>STOMP</b>!

I think I spotted one small oversight with your figures though. If a player (like BB) was signed to a MLE, then the Blazers wouldn't be charged one of the min slots that you noted. By your figures thats about 400G to push towards a potencial max offer which bumps their best offer up to 12-12.5 mil starting depending on the MLE deal signed.
You're right. However, I did include this in my figures:

Bringing the $16.6 million in cap room down to $11.62-12.11 million (after adding back in one of the rookie salary slots charged against the team since it has 9 players instead of 8)
$16.6 - 5.38 + 0.4 = $11.62
$16.6 - 4.89 + 0.4 = $12.11

It wasn't all that clear, though, as I go back and re-read it. But that's what I meant.... :)
 
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