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draft picks are usually very overhyped.

in last years draft
.14 earl clark
15. austin daye
16.james johnson
.17 jrue holiday

when a draft pick pays off its a real coup but with lets say pax's draft record i wouldn't make it a deal breaker
Yeah the mid first round is a weird spot to draft in. Most teams seem to look at those slots as an opportunity to still get a high "potential" player and too early to drafta guy that projects as a role player low ceiling type guy. So most of the time you end up with really raw guys that don't pan out. If the Bulls keep the pick they should be taking the guy who seems to be the surest thing and hope to get a quality bench player on the cheap.
 

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So, really the only likely available targets are: Johnson, Boozer, and potentially Lee. Those are the guys we should look at seriously and I would rule out Boozer because of history and be leery of paying Johnson a full max deal, Lee may or may not be available and I would love to add him for someething just under the max if possible.

Some additional targets you didn't mention include Rudy Gay as a restricted free agent, Al Jefferson through trade, and Iguodala through trade. Gibson, one or two first rounders, and the ability to create an eight-figure trade exception could be enough to get either of those last two players, and there are questions in regards to Memphis' willingness to match a big offer for Gay. Having the cap room to absorb other teams large contracts that no longer make sense for them is almost as valuable as the ability to sign free agents outright.
 

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If the only reason the Bulls wouldn't throw TT into the deal is their big man depth this season, why not just get the Celtics to throw in Shelden Williams' one-year deal. So it would be Allen/Williams for Hinrich/Salmons/Thomas. That gives them a stop gap big rotation of Noah/Miller/Williams/Gibson for now and every bit as much cap space next season. The trade also makes Boston championship contenders by upgrading their defense significantly (Salmons is better than Allen defensively; Hinrich is better than House; Thomas is better than Big Baby) without losing much offense. Also, the luxury of having 5 bigs who can play (Garnett/Perkins/Wallace/Thomas/Davis) means that Garnett sitting out a few more games down the stretch to rest of for the playoffs makes a lot more sense.

Then, for the Bulls next year... only 5 guys would be under contract... the oldest of which would be 24:

PG Rose (21)
SG
SF Deng (24)/Johnson (22)
PF Gibson (24)
C Noah (24)

You cannot possibly script a more appealing free agent destination for some duo of top free agents. Like a previous poster mentioned, Wade, Joe Johnson, Rugy Gay, Travis Outlaw, or Lebron would be a great fill of their wing hole. Also, Boozer, Bosh, Amare, or Lee would look great in their front court... but what about the possibility of drawing in ANOTHER veteran on the downside of his career to fill out a championship-level roster? Re-signing Ray Ray or going after the likes of Ginobili, McGrady, Mike Miller, Mehmet Okur, or Marcus Camby would not be out of the box if a couple big namers signed on the dotted line. Talk about your all-time no brainers! You have to try it if you have the chance, right?
 

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I think a lot of people make way too much out of the whole "Wade (or whomever) would have a better team in Chicago, ergo we could convince him to come here". The reality is all of these FA's can sign for an extra year with their own teams, make 30 million more and historically speaking for players its all about the money. I don't think, generally speaking, a guy like Wade is looking at Chicago's roster and pining to be there. He is more likely supporting his team and hoping Riley can land Bosh, Boozer or someone like that in the offseason, something Miami will be trying to do. Bosh reportedly loves Canada and is more than happy to stay there for a max deal that Toronto reportedly will pay. Joe Johnson turned down a 4 year 60 million dollar extension with Atlanta which means he pretty much wants a 5 year max deal, maybe we can throw that at him and get him but is he worth it? Maybe. No telling what the Knicks will do with Lee, my guess is pay him big dollars when they strike out on Lebron (who plays on his hometown team, a team that has a great record and has made major addittions to keep him happy...and again one he can make 30 million more playing with). Amare is talking opting in with Phoenix, maybe he does or maybe he gets signed to a new deal for them, or maybe he walks (I'm not crazy about him anyway). Boozer is probably the most gettable guy out there but I recall Paxson saying some very unflattering things about him in the media when Boozer screwed over his brother in Cleveland, I don't see that happening.

So, to summarize, as fans we look at more where a guy will fit, will he be better with X team or Y team. As players, they look at "where will I make the most money, which city has the best climate, nightlife etc"

Wade- Stays with Miami, will make $30mil more there, warm climate, happening night scene, committed to adding another FA (probably Boozer).

Lebron- Stays home, literally. Plays for his hometown team, can make $30mil more, team seems committed to adding pieces.

Johnson- turned down a generous offer from Atlanta who is a pretty good team. Looks pretty mercenary for a max offer might be had for one but that also might be overpaying.

Bosh- Will get a max offer from Toronto and likely take it.

Lee- Could change teams, may get a nice offer from NY if NY strikes out in FA but maybe NY overpays Johnson and/or Boozer and Lee is left hanging?

Boozer- Most available FA of all, Utah paid Milsap, they won't pay both of them, probably joins his buddy and training partner Wade in Miami.


So, really the only likely available targets are: Johnson, Boozer, and potentially Lee. Those are the guys we should look at seriously and I would rule out Boozer because of history and be leery of paying Johnson a full max deal, Lee may or may not be available and I would love to add him for someething just under the max if possible.


ACE
I don't agree.
1.) all of these guys have already been offered big contracts extensions by their current team and have turned them down. Why turn them down if they want to stay? They already know how much they will make on the open market (16.5 mil) so it doesn't make sense as a negotiation tactic.
2.) There certainly is precednet for max type guys leaving to play on better teams and bigger markets.
3.) As far as money goes most of these guys make much more money on endorsement deals then they do in salary. So how much money is a guy like Bosh losing out on playing in Toronto where noone cares about basketball V Chicago which is a much bigger market for NBA players?
4.) I think at a certain point guys like Lebron and Wade become less concerened with money and more concerned with cementing a legacy as one of the all time great NBA players. In order to do that you have to win championships. These guys could tremendously improve their profile and be remembered as truly special players if they really start winning. I think all of these guys want that. Take a guy like Lebron, that cavs team around him is pretty bad and yet he has them in 1st place. If he was on the Bulls with our big three around him, he could win have as many rings or more than Jordan got by the end of his career. People would talk about him maybe being the greatest NBA player of all time. I gurantee that is important to him.

basically I think there are plenty of valid reasons for these guys to leave. And I am not even convinced that they will make more money by staying with their current teams as opposed to going to a major market. Winning is important to them. And they will be going somewhere why not here? But like I said before, even if we only land a guy like Joe Johnson we will still be a much improved team so we might as well go for it. And if we don't land anyone big we would be way under the cap with a talented young core. Being 30 mil under the cap(if Hinrich and Salmons are off the books next year) certainly has its advantages. For one it makes it very easy to aquire a big time player via trade. Say a guy like Al Jefferson or someone along those lines whose team wants to cut salary could pretty much dump him on us and save a ton of money.
 

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I've warmed up to the idea of David Lee. He has really developed a superb high-post game, which I never thought would happen. Just think -- everything Brad Miller can do for us on a good day, David Lee will do that basically every night.

Plus, Lee might be gettable for under the max, which makes it possible he will not re-sign in NY. (e.g., he could sign a pretty equivalent deal in Chicago compared to NY, unless NY just blows his socks off with a big offer).

Further, Noah & Lee would give opponents fits on the boards. An all-Florida big man tandem.

The big knock of course is that Lee is a truly horrible defensive player; at least when it comes to altering shots. The guy flat-out does not contest shots. Ever. That makes it too easy for opposing bigs to have big nights.

However, having Noah and Gibson in the rotation can help off set that. Two very good shotblockers to play help D.

For 5 years, $55-60M, we may get a 17 ppg, 10 reb, 3-4 assist guy to play the high-post with Rose in pick and roll/pop situations. Spend the rest of our dough on upgrading the SG spot.

We could do alot worse.
 

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Some additional targets you didn't mention include Rudy Gay as a restricted free agent, Al Jefferson through trade, and Iguodala through trade. Gibson, one or two first rounders, and the ability to create an eight-figure trade exception could be enough to get either of those last two players, and there are questions in regards to Memphis' willingness to match a big offer for Gay. Having the cap room to absorb other teams large contracts that no longer make sense for them is almost as valuable as the ability to sign free agents outright.
Thats a valid point, I didn't mention potential trade partners or Gay. I think Gay would be redundant with Deng and he may even get a Max deal, I don't (like many) see him as being that far superior to Deng to make a deal for and dump Deng. jefferson is interesting if he could be had as is Iguodala, I was just commenting elsewhere on how good Iggy would look in the backcourt next to Rose, particularly if we could land a solid front court guy like Lee to go with him. However Philly wants cap relief and they want to get rid of their big Brand contract that has 4 years left on it so I don't see a viable deal there. But your right, having cap room to absorb salary in trades can be valuable. Just remember, the other team isn't wanting to pay that salary for a reason.

ACE
 

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Bosh- Will get a max offer from Toronto and likely take it.
I agree with a lot of your post especially about Wade and Boozer in Miami together and about Lebron likely re-signing, but not this part. I think the chances that Bosh stays in Toronto are very, very low. I think a haul of JJ and Bosh or Rudy and Bosh is in the mix for the Bulls if they can get rid of some of these contracts. That leaves them with a championship contending core for sure.
 

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Some additional targets you didn't mention include Rudy Gay as a restricted free agent, Al Jefferson through trade, and Iguodala through trade. Gibson, one or two first rounders, and the ability to create an eight-figure trade exception could be enough to get either of those last two players, and there are questions in regards to Memphis' willingness to match a big offer for Gay. Having the cap room to absorb other teams large contracts that no longer make sense for them is almost as valuable as the ability to sign free agents outright.
^this and...
If the only reason the Bulls wouldn't throw TT into the deal is their big man depth this season, why not just get the Celtics to throw in Shelden Williams' one-year deal. So it would be Allen/Williams for Hinrich/Salmons/Thomas. That gives them a stop gap big rotation of Noah/Miller/Williams/Gibson for now and every bit as much cap space next season. The trade also makes Boston championship contenders by upgrading their defense significantly (Salmons is better than Allen defensively; Hinrich is better than House; Thomas is better than Big Baby) without losing much offense. Also, the luxury of having 5 bigs who can play (Garnett/Perkins/Wallace/Thomas/Davis) means that Garnett sitting out a few more games down the stretch to rest of for the playoffs makes a lot more sense.

Then, for the Bulls next year... only 5 guys would be under contract... the oldest of which would be 24:

PG Rose (21)
SG
SF Deng (24)/Johnson (22)
PF Gibson (24)
C Noah (24)

You cannot possibly script a more appealing free agent destination for some duo of top free agents. Like a previous poster mentioned, Wade, Joe Johnson, Rugy Gay, Travis Outlaw, or Lebron would be a great fill of their wing hole. Also, Boozer, Bosh, Amare, or Lee would look great in their front court... but what about the possibility of drawing in ANOTHER veteran on the downside of his career to fill out a championship-level roster? Re-signing Ray Ray or going after the likes of Ginobili, McGrady, Mike Miller, Mehmet Okur, or Marcus Camby would not be out of the box if a couple big namers signed on the dotted line. Talk about your all-time no brainers! You have to try it if you have the chance, right?
^ this

Man it's nice to have more guys posting on the Bulls board that I really agree with.
Maybe its just the fact that too many of our fans are emotionally connected to guys like Hinrich and TT that they can't see it from an objective view. But you guys seem to understand the direction the Bulls should go better than a lot of the Bulls fans. kudos. Maybe I will start posting in your forums from time to time. Love this website more and more every day!
 

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I don't agree.
1.) all of these guys have already been offered big contracts extensions by their current team and have turned them down. Why turn them down if they want to stay? They already know how much they will make on the open market (16.5 mil) so it doesn't make sense as a negotiation tactic.
2.) There certainly is precednet for max type guys leaving to play on better teams and bigger markets.
3.) As far as money goes most of these guys make much more money on endorsement deals then they do in salary. So how much money is a guy like Bosh losing out on playing in Toronto where noone cares about basketball V Chicago which is a much bigger market for NBA players?
4.) I think at a certain point guys like Lebron and Wade become less concerened with money and more concerned with cementing a legacy as one of the all time great NBA players. In order to do that you have to win championships. These guys could tremendously improve their profile and be remembered as truly special players if they really start winning. I think all of these guys want that. Take a guy like Lebron, that cavs team around him is pretty bad and yet he has them in 1st place. If he was on the Bulls with our big three around him, he could win have as many rings or more than Jordan got by the end of his career. People would talk about him maybe being the greatest NBA player of all time. I gurantee that is important to him.

basically I think there are plenty of valid reasons for these guys to leave. And I am not even convinced that they will make more money by staying with their current teams as opposed to going to a major market. Winning is important to them. And they will be going somewhere why not here? But like I said before, even if we only land a guy like Joe Johnson we will still be a much improved team so we might as well go for it. And if we don't land anyone big we would be way under the cap with a talented young core. Being 30 mil under the cap(if Hinrich and Salmons are off the books next year) certainly has its advantages. For one it makes it very easy to aquire a big time player via trade. Say a guy like Al Jefferson or someone along those lines whose team wants to cut salary could pretty much dump him on us and save a ton of money.
Your points are well taken but I would address them thusly:

1.) They are already making good money THIS season, by waiting to extend until the offseason they add another season at a great pay rate. Of course that does presupposse that they play well and avoid injury etc.

2.) Yes it has happened but not all that often

3.) I think most of the big time guys have national and even international exposure. A lot is made of playing in a bigger market like Chicago but the only real difference may be more lucrative local contracts.

4.) I could see that at a certain point but I don't think they are neccessarily looking at the Bulls as a team far superior to what they are working with. They may, I guess we will see but I think ultimately they are more motivated by making fat dollars.

There are advantages to being cap flexible. I don't know if giving a guy like Johnson a max deal is a great idea. He would be making huge money at age 34. Trades are certainly possible with capspace but I was more addressing free agency.

ACE
 

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Your points are well taken but I would address them thusly:

1.) They are already making good money THIS season, by waiting to extend until the offseason they add another season at a great pay rate. Of course that does presupposse that they play well and avoid injury etc.

2.) Yes it has happened but not all that often

3.) I think most of the big time guys have national and even international exposure. A lot is made of playing in a bigger market like Chicago but the only real difference may be more lucrative local contracts.

4.) I could see that at a certain point but I don't think they are neccessarily looking at the Bulls as a team far superior to what they are working with. They may, I guess we will see but I think ultimately they are more motivated by making fat dollars.

There are advantages to being cap flexible. I don't know if giving a guy like Johnson a max deal is a great idea. He would be making huge money at age 34. Trades are certainly possible with capspace but I was more addressing free agency.

ACE
Fair enough. It is pretty much all speculation anyways no way to know for sure from either side of the arguement. My feeling though is that as long as their is a chance than we should prepare for it just in case.
 

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My feeling though is that as long as their is a chance than we should prepare for it just in case.
And isn't that the salient point on the matter? Championship caliber teams with multiple core parts entering their prime level production are so rare in this league. If you even have a remote chance of building that foundation, you have to push all your chips in the middle to make it happen.
 

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Oh I agree Casey, we definitley have to take a shot, we need another star on this team for sure! I just don't think our odds are nearly as good as some hope. A lot of people make it seem like a foregone conclusion that Wade or Lebron will sign here, that would be lovely but I am just saying it isn't likely. We still need to be in a position to make it happen if we should be so lucky. Of course, I'm not so sure about needing to free up enough cap to add TWO free agents since we will probably be lucky to get one although there is some merit to that line of thinking also.

ACE
 

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draft picks are usually very overhyped.

in last years draft
.14 earl clark
15. austin daye
16.james johnson
.17 jrue holiday

when a draft pick pays off its a real coup but with lets say pax's draft record i wouldn't make it a deal breaker

i think tyrus kirk and jerome james is quite fair ...or kirk and miller ...allen is a 35 year old 2 guard he is probably on his last legs whether or not we see it yet , i am sure the celts know it which is why they want to deal him while they can still get something for him and dont want to resign him.

truth is i dont feel he is worth kirk alone , how many times have we seen old players dealt while they are still effective and on their new team their effectiveness drops off the table ...i dont think allen is worth the risk as a player ...as a salary coming off the books thats another story...but then the bulls better be successful ...no ben wallaces or ron mercers this go round.
Still there is more value in having a mid first round pick who can develop into a good player than to take on a 35 year old player a year or two away from retiring.

Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker
Tayshaun Prince
Danny Granger
David West
Jameer Nelson
Josh Howard
Josh Smith
David Lee
Kevin

All players drafted in the mid to late round.

Ray Allen's expiring contract alone is more valuable than Kirk Hinrich.
 

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From ESPN on the 20 most likeley players to get traded before the deadline:

3. Kirk Hinrich, G, Bulls
The Bulls will have salary-cap space this summer, and they want more. If they can trade Hinrich and/or John Salmons for expiring contracts, they can make a pitch to both LeBron James and Chris Bosh this summer. Can you imagine a team with James, Bosh, Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah?

I guarantee you Chicago exec John Paxson can, and if Bosh isn't traded before the deadline, the Bulls appear to have a chance make it happen.

In the past few weeks, both the Celtics and the Lakers have shown interest in Hinrich. The Celtics could do a deal that would send Ray Allen for both Hinrich and Salmons, providing Boston ballhandling and depth on the wings and giving Chicago new hope for this summer. In any case, given all the chatter about Hinrich, I think the chances he'll be a Bull after Feb. 18 are increasingly slim.
 

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Even if they dealt Hinrich and Salmons they would not have enough cap to make a max offer at two of those guys...

ACE
Like I said earlier the salary cap would have to be at around 56 mil or higher for them to be able to offer 2 max contracts. Which is within reason considering the cap was about 59 mil(or close) last year. So it is within reason as it is hard to guess what the cap will be now or how much it will drop.
 

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There seems to be some sort of feeling that the Bulls NEED to make a run at Wade/Lebron and Bosh for this to be a successful summer. Keep in mind that Rose has the ability to be a top 10 player in the league, and they already have a good young center in Noah and a great utility man in Deng. They just need talented scorers, but not necessarily elite players, at the power forward and swingman positions. Wade/Bosh would be fantastic, but Iguodala and Jefferson probably make this roster a championship-caliber team.
 

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There seems to be some sort of feeling that the Bulls NEED to make a run at Wade/Lebron and Bosh for this to be a successful summer. Keep in mind that Rose has the ability to be a top 10 player in the league, and they already have a good young center in Noah and a great utility man in Deng. They just need talented scorers, but not necessarily elite players, at the power forward and swingman positions. Wade/Bosh would be fantastic, but Iguodala and Jefferson probably make this roster a championship-caliber team.
I like the Iggy idea. I've posted a trade scenario involving Hinrich + Thomas for Iggy + Jason Smith. Iguodala despite being a lesser player IMO is a better fit next to Rose than Wade/Johnson. My interest in Iggy is based on the idea that I actually like the role that Hinrich is currently playing next to Rose, and thinking the Bulls probably need to replace Hinrich with a better player who can play similar role. And Iggy fits that description. Coincidentally, he's available and his name have been involved in a couple of trade scenarios lately; The Cavs being the most aggressive suitor.

I still want to the Bulls to go really hard on pursuing Bosh in the summer. Assuming by the end of the year we have Rose, Iggy, Deng and Noah and a cap space for MAX contract, we'd be among the most powerful players in the Bosh sweepstake.
 

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I like the Iggy idea. I've posted a trade scenario involving Hinrich + Thomas for Iggy + Jason Smith.
Philly's made it more or less clear that if you want Iguodala you have to take(at bare minimum) Dalembert off their hands this season, or Brand going forward, which kills Chicago's cap space.

Iggy isn't a target this season, but an interesting theoretical involving him: If Chicago clears Hinrich and Salmons off the roster, they have enough cap room to swing a trade this that sends minor assets(Gibson+Johnson and a pick) to Philly for Iguodala, Brand(hear me out), their choice of Young or Speights, plus Jrue Holiday. Chicago could then swap Deng for Al Jefferson more or less straight up(which makes sense for both teams). That leaves Chicago trotting out a lineup of Rose, Iggy, Young, Jefferson, and Noah with Brand as the sixth man(where his 14 and 7 is actually an asset) and Holiday backing up the point. A "threes and D" swingman and an extra defensive big man to round out the playoff rotation and you've got what might be a real championship contender.


LIKE THE FIFTH EDIT: You could also not make the second trade(Deng for Jefferson) and have a very flexible lineup. The Bulls would have the option of going either big on teams with Brand and Deng/Young or fielding a quick lineup that won't get killed on the boards with Deng and Young playing together at the forward spots.
 

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I wouldn't mind the trade mentioned from cbssports.com if it included a future 1st round pick from the C's. With all their aging players, there is no doubt they will be in the lottery or close to it in the next couple years. I am really torn here b/c I think trading Deng, as opposed to Hinrich would be better. Why?

1) Deng's contract is going up which will make the Bulls have less money this summer compared to Hinrich's whose salary is going down. Hinrichs salary helps them in free agency & Dengs doesn't.

2) With the economy the way it is, now is the time to lock players up, not 2 years ago at the peak. This is why getting rid of Deng's contract would be the best thing for the Bulls. It is the only contract that is creating a glut preventing them to run lean into 2010 free agency. This is b/c it is long term (5 years), going up in price, & was signed just before the economy started to slow down. View Dengs contract like the loan outstanding on a house purchased in 2007. It is underwater!

3) We could get a player similar to Deng in Outlaw, who has been injured all season, thus having a low market value at this time. Or we could get Rudy Gay. Last year the market set a low value for SFs with the signings of ARTEST & Ariza who signed for the MLE.

4) I think it will be much harder to find a replacement for Hinrich than it will be for Deng i.e. Gay, Outlaw, etc..., b/c Kirk does so much more than score. Like Rose said, “Kirk is our glue guy”.

5) Hinrich has said he would prefer to stay in Chicago even knowing about the offers from two potential championship teams (LA & Boston). This loyalty makes me think he would sign for significantly less in 2.5 years than what he signed for last time. This is especially true if we were competitive for a title. We just need 1 more significant piece and were there.
 
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