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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Since people are keeping track of our race to the bottom to get the most lottery balls, it's worth checking back to see how important drafting high is. Obviously it's important in drafts where there's a franchise player (or two) - Shaq, Duncan, LeBron, et. al. But this year isn't one of those years. So how important is having a high pick? One way to judge is to go back and "re-do" recent drafts - that is, put them in the order the players have actually panned out. Of course this becomes more guesswork in recent drafts, because you don't get the long view (wasn't Damon ROY in the draft that had Garnett in it?), but what the hell, here goes (and please feel free to do your rankings)

2000 Draft, as it should have been (actual draft position in parentheses):

1. (43) Milwaukee Michael Redd Ohio State (Seriously!)
2. (1) New Jersey Kenyon Martin Cincinnati (score one for John Nash)
3. (8) Cleveland Jamal Crawford Michigan (at least, the way he's been playing lately)
4. (5) Orlando Mike Miller Florida
5. (19) Charlotte Jamaal Magloire Kentucky
6. (21) Toronto Morris Peterson Michigan State (Apparently now known as "Mr. Raptor")
7. (9) Houston Joel Przybilla Minnesota

All right, I'm already reaching! Man! What a sucky draft! And note that only 2 are still with the team that drafted them.
Others of "note", in no particular order of talent (just the order they were picked):
2. Vancouver Stromile Swift LSU
3. LA Clippers Darius Miles E. Stl Louis HS
7. Chicago Chris Mihm Texas
16. Sacramento Hidayet Turkoglu Efes Pilson (Turkey)
17. Seattle Desmond Mason Oklahoma State
18. LA Clippers Quentin Richardson DePaul
20. Philadelphia Speedy Claxton Hofstra
23. Utah DeShawn Stevenson Washington Union (HS)
25. Phoenix Iakovos Tsakalidis AEK (Greece) (He's just started to come alive)
27. Indiana Primoz Brezec Olympija Ljublijana (Slovenia)
29. LA Lakers Mark Madsen Stanford

And of course:
28. Portland Erick Barkley St. John's

Sheesh! If this year is like that, then who really cares where we pick?

2001:
1. (31) Golden State Gilbert Arenas Arizona (2 drafts in a row where the best player was drafted in the second round!)
2. (3) Atlanta Paul Gasol Spain (traded, lest we forget, for dear old SAR)
3. (28) San Antonio Tony Parker France (love that - college teams "France" "Spain")
4. (10) Boston Joe Johnson Arkansas
5. (5) Golden State Jason Richardson Michigan St.
6. (13) New Jersey Richard Jefferson Arizona
7. (19) Portland Zach Randolph Michigan St. (Yay for us!)
8. (4) Chicago Eddy Curry Thornwood HS
9. (2) Chicago Tyson Chandler Dominques HS (Clippers' best day ever!)
10. (14) Golden State Troy Murphy Notre Dame
11. (38) Detroit Mehmet Okur Turkey
12. (6) Vancouver Shane Battier Duke
13. (25) Sacramento Gerald Wallace Alabama

Others of note, in order of draft:
8. Cleveland DeSagna Diop Oak Hill Academy
12. Seattle Vladimir Radmanovic Yugoslavia
18. New Jersey Jason Collins Stanford
20. Orlando Brendan Haywood N. Carolina
26. Philadelphia Samuel Dalembert Seton Hall
27. Vancouver Jamaal Tinsley Iowa St.
40. Seattle Earl Watson UCLA
42. Washington Bobby Simmons DePaul

And, of course:
50. Portland Ruben Boumtje Boumtje Georgetown
Helped to get Rasheed drummed out of town by being such a tempting target.

Overall, some useful players, but only 3 or 4 bona fide stars, and no "super" stars. Of the top picks, only Pau Gasol and Jason Richardson really deserved it.

2002:

1. (9) Phoenix Amare Stoudemire Cypress Creek HS (Although, who knows? Maybe injuries will do for him as they did for #2 pick Jay Williams)
2. (1) Houston Yao Ming China (Arguably now #1 given recent stats)
3. (23) Detroit Tayshaun Prince Kentucky
4. (35) Cleveland Carlos Boozer Duke (Another good second rounder)
5. (24) New Jersey Nenad Krstic Yugoslavia (Quietly becoming one of the best centers around)
6. (4) Memphis Drew Gooden Kansas (Still don't like him, but not much better below)
7. (10) Miami Caron Butler Connecticut
8. (7) Denver Maybyner Hilario Brazil (Will he ever pan out?
9. (8) Clippers Chris Wilcox Maryland (Could vault higher, but I can't quite believe he got that much better between LA and Seattle)

The rest (including some furrners who haven't arrived yet):
3. Golden State Mike Dunleavy Jr. Duke
11. Washington Jared Jeffries Indiana
14. Indiana Frederick Jones Oregon
17. Washington Juan Dixon Maryland
21. Portland Qyntel Woods NE Mississippi JC (Blazers insist they heard "He competes like a pit bull." In fact, with.)
26. Philadelphia John Salmons Miami Fla

34. Milwaukee Dan Gadzuric UCLA
37. Atlanta David Andersen Australia
40. Washington Juan Navarro Spain
41. Orlando Mario Kasun Croatia
42. Milwaukee Ronald Murray Shaw
50. Boston Darius Songaila Wake Forest
53. Miami Rasual Butler La Salle
56. San Antonio Luis Scola Argentina

And of course, for barfo:
43. Portland Jason Jennings Arkansas St.

Of the top picks (where we'll be picking) only Yao Ming deserved to be there. Yikes.

2003:
1. (1) Cleveland LeBron James
2. (5) Miami Dwyane Wade
3. (4) Toronto Chris Bosh
4. (3) Denver Carmelo Anthony
5. (29) Dallas Josh Howard
6. (7) Chicago Kirk Hinrich
7. (6) Clippers Chris Kaman
8. (18) New Orleans David West
9. (21) Atlanta Boris Diaw
10. (14) Seattle Luke Ridnour
11. (8) Milwaukee T.J. Ford
12. (12) Seattle Nick Collison
13. (28) San Antonio Leandrinho Barbosa

Now you're talking! Much more sensible drafting. And a LOT of decent players, along with 4 possible superstars, all taken in the top 5. But of course, this is one of the all-time great drafts, along with 1984. *Sigh* - will we ever see its like again?

Leftovers:
2. Detroit Darko Milicic
9. New York Michael Sweetney
10. Wachington Jarvis Hayes
11. Golden State Mickael Pietrus
13. Memphis Marcus Banks
20. Boston Dahntay Jones
22. New Jersey Zoran Planinic
23. Portland Travis Outlaw (not TOO terrible - except we could've had Howard, or even Barbosa)
24. Lakers Brian Cook
25. Detroit Carlos Delfino
27. Memphis Kendrick Perkins

32. Lakers Luke Walton
38. Washington Steve Blake (yay!)
41. Seattle Willie Green
42. Orlando Zaur Pachulia
43. Milwaukee Keith Bogans
45. Chicago Matt Bonner (The Red Rocket!)
47. Utah Maurice Williams
49. Indiana James Jones
51. New Jersey Kyle Korver

And, of course:
54. Portland Nedzad Sinanovic

2004:
1. Orlando Dwight Howard
2. Charlotte Emeka Okafor
3. Chicago Ben Gordon
4. Clippers Shaun Livingston

Pretty much right on, if you think that Livingston is going to live up to Bill Simmons' hype.

5. (9) Philadelphia Andre Iguodala
6. (5) Dallas Devin Harris
7. (7) Chicago Luol Deng (He WILL bring home the World Championship for Great Britain!)
8. (17) Atlanta Josh Smith
9. (26) Sacramento Kevin Martin
10. (12) Seattle Robert Swift (Starting to show why Danny Ainge lusted after him)
11. (38) Chicago Chris Duhon (Chicago was much better last year when he played more)
12. (20) Denver Jameer Nelson (Really looking good lately)
13. (6) Atlanta Josh Childress (Still love the 'fro)

The rest of the first round are mostly okay, except for the following who look bust-esque:

8. Toronto Rafael Araujo
10. Cleveland Luke Jackson
11. Golden State Andris Biedrins
21. Utah Pavel Podkolzine (Didn't Chad Ford think he should go #1?)

Then:
13. Portland Sebastian Telfair
14. Utah Kris Humphries
15. Boston Al Jefferson
16. Utah Kirk Snyder
18. New Orleans J.R. Smith
19. Miami Dorell Wright
22. New Jersey Viktor Khryapa
23. Portland Sergei Monia
24. Boston Delonte West
25. Boston Tony Allen
27. Lakers Sasha Vujacic
28. San Antonio Beno Udrih
29. Indiana David Harrison

The second round was really patchy:

30. Orlando Anderson Varejao
31. Chicago Jackson Vroman
37. Atlanta Royal Ivey
43. New York Trevor Ariza
45. Charlotte Bernard Robinson
47. Miami Pape Sow ("I am KING of the D-League!")

And of course:
46. Portland Ha Seung Hin

Which brings us to:

2005:
1. (4) New Orleans Chris Paul
2. (8) New York Channing Frye (unless he's injury-prone)
3. (7) Toronto Charlie Vlllanueva (unless he really is a headcase)
4. (1) Milwaukee Andrew Bogut (the only guy I wanted, looks very average)
5. (5) Charlotte Raymond Felton (have you seen the numbers he's been putting up?)
6. (3) Utah Deron Williams (looking better recently, especially when he plays Chris Paul)
7. (17) Indiana Danny Granger (I think he'll be really good)
8. (9) Golden State Ike Diogu
9 (14). Minnesota Rashad McCants (breakout games now the season's over)

The rest are a mixed bag:
25. Seattle Johan Petro
32. Clippers Daniel Ewing
30. New York David Lee
2. Atlanta Marvin Williams
24. Houston Luther Head
31. Atlanta Salim Stoudamire
50. Boston Ryan Gomes
6. Portland Martell Webster

The remaining possibly useful players:
10. Lakers Andrew Bynum
12. Clipper Yaroslav Korolev
13. Charlotte Sean May
15. New Jersey Antoine Wright
16. Toronto Joey Graham
18. Boston Gerald Green
19. Memphis Hakim Warrick
20. Denver Julius Hodge
23. Sacramento Francisco Garcia
37. Lakers Ronny Turiaf
39. Lakers Von Wafer
40. Golden State Monta Ellis
44. Orlando Martynas Andruiskevicius (Didn't Chad Ford think he should go #1?)
45. Philadelphia Louis WIlliams
53. Boston Orien Greene

Either draft evaluators have gotten a lot better since 2002, or it's just that it's too soon really to tell, but the past 3 drafts have looked a good deal better for people with high picks.

Well, I've wasted FAR too much time on this...
 
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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
*bump*

Seriously, nobody has any comments?

What this shows, I think, is that we would be fine if we dropped out of the top 3 (i.e., lost the lottery). Or, if we did get into the top 3, we should trade the pick for a solid offer.
 

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Wow, epic post Meru.

I'm not quite sure what to make of it, as far as guiding what we should do this year. I think we should be open to trading the pick, if another team offers up something very enticing for it. If we keep it, just hope Kevin Pritchard's super-duper evaluation system comes through for us. And don't take Aldridge :)

Stepping Razor
 

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Wow, what an insightful post. 'Tis a shame no one has replied yet. Oh wait, I just did.

Anyways, I agree for the most part with you're assessment. What a couple of crappy drafts in the early millenium. However, I think Portland should hold on to a top 3 pick if they get it. The last time we picked this high was in 1985, and you all know who we picked.........

Maybe, if we pick a really good player we'll break the curse that settled when we chose Sam Bowie. If we can pick up a future superstar (preferably Ammo) then I think that will be enough in the eye's of the basketball gods. :krazy:
 

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Another thought... do we think our odds of drafting a keeper would increase if we had multiple picks?

Chicago has a wealth of young talent but desperately needs inside scoring. Think they'd have any interest in Z-Bo? He's likely a better inside scorer than anybody they could get in this year's draft or in this year's weak free agent class.

They have lots of cap space so they could absorb more salary than they send out, which would make Z-Bo's base-year contract (is he still on that?) a non-issue.

Z-Bo for both Chicago's lotto picks, straight up?

Would Portland do this? Would Chicago?

I'd love to be able to get Morrison AND either Bargnani or Thomas.

Stepping Razor
 

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Just wait a month or two and we'll all see how interested Chicago is in Zach. I am guessing they will be very interested, as Zach's "soft" game would compliment the Bulls' style very well. This may be wishful thinking on my part. You know, me just wanting to be rid of Zach. But, I actually see something here. I don't know who we would get in return, or who I would really want in return (maybe an expiring contract and a future draft pick) but I see this happening.

I also see me being horribly wrong and eating my words, but that is part of the job.
 

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ThePrideOfClyde said:
Just wait a month or two and we'll all see how interested Chicago is in Zach. I am guessing they will be very interested, as Zach's "soft" game would compliment the Bulls' style very well. This may be wishful thinking on my part. You know, me just wanting to be rid of Zach. But, I actually see something here. I don't know who we would get in return, or who I would really want in return (maybe an expiring contract and a future draft pick) but I see this happening.

I also see me being horribly wrong and eating my words, but that is part of the job.
Wow, what is your job? That doesn't sound like much fun...

Stepping Razor
 

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I think if you had time and energy you could do this with nearly any draft. There will be some disagreement but overall I think people would be in accord.
I don't think, though, that you can really rate the 2005 draft yet. There may be a Steve Nash or Dirk Nowitzki, who took a couple of years to develop. And there may be a Harold Minor, who started strong but flamed out. Or a Grant Hill, good player felled by injuries. One seaon is really not enough. IMHO it takes about 3 years to really be able to grade a player/draft.
 

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I agree with crandc.

I would add that nobody should be making final judgments on 2004's class, either. I don't believe that meru was doing that, but players like Jefferson and Telfair could move up the "after" rankings pretty easily and Biedrins (20) and Podkolzin (21) are far too young to discount as busts just yet.

Ed O.
 

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crandc said:
That thud you heard was me fainting.
Heh. You and I agree more than you probably know. I just don't post very many "I agree" posts that often in general, and so I think I give the impression that I disagree with everyone on everything more than is actually the case.

Ed O.
 

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This post merely supports the contractual reality of the league right now.

I'm not sure 2003 was that much better of a draft than others. It only looks that way because many players are being given their proverbial 'shot' in the last year of a 3-year contract (For Example, David West wouldn't be on this list last year...).

If they don't play well, teams won't pick up their options. 2002 players are either on new contracts, low in new rotations, or not in the league, so they're lower in the teams' respective depth charts.

Another factor not addressed is the slow purging of older players that has been going on in the last few years. This year, the average age of the NBA dropped by the highest amount since they began keeping track in 1985. The league hasn't been this young since the 1986-1987 season.

2003 also looks more fantastic because of that summer's extremely thin free agent market. One of the worst free agent markets in recent memory. Teams were saddled with plenty of long term deals (of the Kemp type), and so the CBA-enforced rookie scale contracts were the only way teams could upgrade without 'adding' to their payroll. The salary cap dropped that year, as did the revenue from the new TV contract.

Additionally unfortunate for the 2001 and 2002 draftees is the fact that the 2005 free agent market was so active. Lots of low to medium range players were available to a surprising amount of teams with cap space. The duds from 2001 and 2002 are already out of the league.



So, while studying the drafts may have been an interesting activity, it doesn't really explain much of anything.
 

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Just for the "halibut", I decided to continue where Meru left off. Here are the 1995-1999 results.
(Name, actual draft position, original team)

1999
Top 5 in redone draft:

Elton Brand 1 Chicago
Rip Hamilton 7 Washington
Manu Ginobili 57 San Antonio (Where do the Spurs find these guys no one else thought of?)
Andrei Kirilenko 24 Utah
Shawn Marion 9 Phoenix

Portland selected Roberto Bergeron in the 2nd round. They had no first round pick that year.

Other notables:
Baron Davis 3 Charlotte (now New Orleans/OK)
Jason Terry 10 Atlanta
Ron Artest 16 Chicago
Devean George 23 Lakers

Comment: No real franchise players but a lot of pretty good ones

1998
Top 5 in redone draft:
Dirk Nowitzki 9 Milwaukee (traded to Dallas on draft day for Robert Traylor)
Paul Pierce 10 Boston
Vince Carter 5 Golden State
Antawn Jamison 4 Toronto (Toronto and Golden State swapped players)
Mike Bibby 2 Vancouver (now Memphis)

Portland had no first round pick but traded to get Detroit's pick, Bonzi Wells

Other notables:
Larry Hughes 8 Philadelphia
Second round:
Ruben Patterson 31 Lakers
Rashard Lewis 32 Seattle
Cuttino Mobley 41 Houston

Comment: unusually strong second round, but otherwise a pretty unremarkable draft after Nowitzki and Pierce

1997
Top 5 in redone draft:
Tim Duncan 1 San Antonio
Chancey Billups 3 Boston
Tracy McGrady 9 Toronto
Stephen Jackson 42 Phoenix
Antonio Daniels 4 Vancouver

Portland drafted Chris Anstey and traded him to Dallas for Kelvin Cato, drafted Alvin Wiliams in second round

Other notables:
Derek Anderson 13 Cleveland
Bobby Jackson 23 Minnesota
Mark Blount 54 Seattle
God Shammgod 45 Washington (never played, but best name in NBA history)

Comment: overall poor draft, there was Duncan, McGrady and Billups but few others made a real impact

1996
top 5 in redone draft
Steve Nash 15 Phoenix
Kobe Bryant 13 Charlotte
Allen Iverson 1 Philadelphia
Jermaine O'Neal 17 Portland
Ray Allen 5 Minnesota (traded for Stephon Marbury in draft day trade with Milwaukee)

Portland, obviously, got Jermaine

Other notables:
Marcus Camby 2 Toronto
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 3 Vancouver
Stephon Marbury 4 Milwaukee
Antoine Walker 6 Boston
Peja Stoyakovic 14 Sacramento
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 20 Cleveland
Derek Fisher 24 Lakers
second round
Jeff McInnis 37 Denver
Malik Rose 44 Charlotte

Comment: a really loaded draft

1995
top 5 in redone draft
Kevin Garnett 5 Minnesota
Rasheed Wallace 3 Washington
Michael Finley 21 Phoenix
Damon Stoudamire 7 Toronto
Eric Snow 43 Milwaukee

Portland traded to get Gary Trent and also drafted Randolph Childress

Other notables:
Antonio McDyess 2 Clippers (traded to Denver on draft day for Rodney Rogers and Brent Barry)
Jerry Stackhouse 3 Philadelphia
Corliss Williamson 13 Sacramento
Brent Barry 15 Denver
Theo Ratliff 18 Detroit
Travis Best 23 Indiana

comment: a lot of players who just didn't live up to expectations.
 

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ThePrideOfClyde said:
.....I think Portland should hold on to a top 3 pick if they get it. The last time we picked this high was in 1985, and you all know who we picked.........
TERRY PORTER with #24.
 

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Ed O said:
Heh. You and I agree more than you probably know. I just don't post very many "I agree" posts that often in general, and so I think I give the impression that I disagree with everyone on everything more than is actually the case.

Ed O.
giving the impression you disagree with everyone is so much more fun tho, right Ed?

I know thats why I do it.

:angel:
 
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