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I was thinking last night about our chances of building a dynasty and thinking about just how many players around the league under the age of 25 (at the end of this year) have a chance of being one of the top five players in the league in their prime. Here is my list.
Knicks -
Nets - Jefferson
Celtics - (Pierce will be 25)
Wizards - Brown, Jeffries
Sixers -
Magic - McGrady
Heat - Butler
Bulls - JWill, Curry, Chandler
Pacers - O'Neal, Bender
Cavs - Diop, Wagner, Miles
Raptors - (Carter will be 25)
Bucks -
Hawks - (Abdur-Rahim will be 25)
Pistons - White
Hornets - Davis
Wolves - (Garnett will be 26)
Mavs - Nowitski
Rockets - Francis, Ming, Griffin
Grizzlies - Gasol, Gooden
Nuggets - Skita, Nene
Jazz - Kirilenko
Spurs - Parker (Duncan will be 26)
Lakers - Bryant
Sonics - Lewis
Clippers - Brand, Wilcox (Miller will be 26)
Blazers - Woods (probably shouldn't include him)
Kings - Bibby
Suns - Marion, Stoudemire (Marbury will be 25)
Warriors - Dunleavy, Richardson
There are 35 guys on this list, many with a much better chance than our three of making the top five (McGrady, Bryant) and many with a lower chance.
Suppose that our guys as good of a chance as the rest of the field of being the best player in their prime (probably a generous assumption), this would still give us only a 3 out of 35 or 9% chance of having the best player in the league.
Suppose that our guys have twice as good of a chance as the rest of the field of being in the top five in their prime (another generous assumption), then each of our 3 players would have a 5 out of 35 or 14% chance of being in the top five players in this fairly narrow age range. The chances of us having two such players is only about 6%, even under these fairly generous assumptions.
Since we probably need to have the top player or two of the top five in this fairly narrow age range in order to have a dynasty, even under fairly generous assumptions, we probably have at best a 15% shot at a dynasty, about a one in seven chance.
And again I think these are likely to be very generous assumptions, since there probably is a 50 percent chance that Bryant or McGrady will be the best player among this group and almost surely will be 2 of the best 5.
Knicks -
Nets - Jefferson
Celtics - (Pierce will be 25)
Wizards - Brown, Jeffries
Sixers -
Magic - McGrady
Heat - Butler
Bulls - JWill, Curry, Chandler
Pacers - O'Neal, Bender
Cavs - Diop, Wagner, Miles
Raptors - (Carter will be 25)
Bucks -
Hawks - (Abdur-Rahim will be 25)
Pistons - White
Hornets - Davis
Wolves - (Garnett will be 26)
Mavs - Nowitski
Rockets - Francis, Ming, Griffin
Grizzlies - Gasol, Gooden
Nuggets - Skita, Nene
Jazz - Kirilenko
Spurs - Parker (Duncan will be 26)
Lakers - Bryant
Sonics - Lewis
Clippers - Brand, Wilcox (Miller will be 26)
Blazers - Woods (probably shouldn't include him)
Kings - Bibby
Suns - Marion, Stoudemire (Marbury will be 25)
Warriors - Dunleavy, Richardson
There are 35 guys on this list, many with a much better chance than our three of making the top five (McGrady, Bryant) and many with a lower chance.
Suppose that our guys as good of a chance as the rest of the field of being the best player in their prime (probably a generous assumption), this would still give us only a 3 out of 35 or 9% chance of having the best player in the league.
Suppose that our guys have twice as good of a chance as the rest of the field of being in the top five in their prime (another generous assumption), then each of our 3 players would have a 5 out of 35 or 14% chance of being in the top five players in this fairly narrow age range. The chances of us having two such players is only about 6%, even under these fairly generous assumptions.
Since we probably need to have the top player or two of the top five in this fairly narrow age range in order to have a dynasty, even under fairly generous assumptions, we probably have at best a 15% shot at a dynasty, about a one in seven chance.
And again I think these are likely to be very generous assumptions, since there probably is a 50 percent chance that Bryant or McGrady will be the best player among this group and almost surely will be 2 of the best 5.