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Endgame? None...most of us here just see the logic in expansion and discuss cause it comes up every off season. Plus it brings BE and Xavier fans here to discuss hoops with us. :coffee:

Do I think the BE will ever get to the level of the ACC/Big 10? Not really, but why not try? This is business 101. Why settle?

Logically (and I'll use SLU and Dayton since you brought them up) you are probably gaining at least 1 more bid a year and maybe 2
I guess we just disagree.

The Big East will get 5 or 6 bids every year.

Adding Saint Louis and Dayton (or Gonzaga and Wichita St) would get the Big East 6 or 7 bids every year.

Adding Saint Louis and Dayton (or Gonzaga and Wichita St) would potentially decrease the $4 million per school annual payout from FOX if you've gotta split the total pot with more schools.

Losing the round robbin.

I don't think all that is worth getting one more bid per year.

And I don't think moving from 5/6 bids to 6/7 bids puts the Big East in any different conversation compared to the ACC and B10. It just doesn't move the needle.

Business 101 is knowing who you are and what you do really well - and executing on that. Trying to be the ACC and B10 is not what the NBE is or wants to be.
 

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I guess the bottom line is - you are constantly trying to measure the Big East against the ACC or Big 10 ..... so what's your solution?

If the Big East adds Dayton and Saint Louis is it now a big boy held in the same breath as the ACC and Big 10?

What's your endgame?

The Big East isn't trying to be the ACC or Big 10. But even if they were (and you surely compare it a lot to those 2 conferences) how does adding Dayton and Saint Louis even remotely make the Big East any more similar to the ACC and Big 10?
Dayton & Saint Louis absolutely would have made you an eight bid league.


You’re falling into the trap of thinking “Big East bids + Their bids = Our Bids Together.” Doesn’t work like that.


Dayton was 10-3 OOC. SLU was 6-7 OOC. That’s 16-9. You went 95-30 (.760). So with UD/SLU you’d have been 111-39 (.740). Your average SOS in conference play takes a tiny hit… .0060 off all your RPI.

Now, you’d have an unbalanced schedule where is where we get into subjective claims. You’d play 7 of 11 opponents twice, and four teams just once each. So let’s say the Big East manipulated it masterfully so that the 6-7-8-9 teams got SLU twice.

SLU was 2-14 vs the Top 140 of the RPI in 2015-16. So let’s say they went 2-16 in the Big East, beating St. John’s and splitting with DePaul.

Let’s say Dayton goes 10-8. They lose to X twice, split with Marq, Creighton, Butler, and lose their only meetings with: home vs Nova, at PC, at Hall. I realize this part is contentious, but does anyone UD/Big East loyal have a problem with that? No. Good.


We know the whole league is going to be 108-108 combined.
We know that the top half of the league is basically replacing wins on their schedule with wins vs SLU, and losses to each other half the time with losses to Dayton half the time.

So most our standings look like this:
let’s say:
Nova 16-2
Xavier 14-4
Hall 12-6
Prov 11-7
Butler 10-8
Dayton 10-8

DePaul 4-14
SLU 2-16
St. John's 1-17

Now, that adds up to 79-83, but it has to be 108-108.

Creighton, Marquette & Georgetown will combine for 29-25. In real life, they were 24-30. Obviously, in a real life scenario, it won’t be that clean. But for the sake of argument, let’s say the Big East hired a genius to put together a schedule to maximize bids.

Creighton 10-8
Marquette 10-8
Georgetown 9-9

Of course, now your BE Tourney is different. You’ve got a five-way tie for fifth, but your:

- 5 seed (we’ll say Butler) beats the 12 seed in the BET (extra win)
- 6 seed (we’ll say Dayton) beats the 11 seed in the BET (extra win)
- 7 seed (we’ll say Creighton) beats the 10 seed in the BET (instead of losing to the 3 seed!)
- 8 seed (we’ll say Marquette) beats the 9 seed in the BET Tourney (no change)

So now Creighton is sitting at 20-12 entering their Big East quarters match-up with Xavier.
And Marquette is sitting at 22-11 entering their Big East quarters match-up with Nova.

Creighton’s 4-7 against the Top 50 instead of 2-7, because Butler & Dayton are Top 50 and they split with both.
But they didn’t lose a second time to Nova. Nothing they can do about the Loyola Chicago loss, but by the beat Saint Louis instead of losing to Georgetown and beat Saint Louis instead of losing again to Seton Hall.

Dayton & Creighton are your 7th and 8th bids.
 

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Dayton went 11-2 in OOC against the #5 SOS I believe and had a Top 15 RPI entering A10 play. Which helps your argument even more JP. Dayton probably could have gone 10-8 in the BE this year and gotten in easily...9-9 most likely would have landed them in too. No argument there from me.
 

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And this is why I think the Big East should take THREE teams, NOW.

Dayton, Bona, Belmont.

Dayton, with their infrastructure and facilities is a "Big East program" right now. That makes their "Five NCAA locks" become six.

But RIGHT NOW, they can point to Bonaventure's success this past season and "first team out" status as if Bona is a major player (which few would believe) but point to how they play in Rochester & Buffalo and are a regional presence which help their market share... along with Belmont, who's in a quality market and is an excellent program at their level, tout geography and how this gives them scheduling flexibility.

But what it really does is sneaks a bottom third team into the league when they're the best they've been in almost 20 years and adds TWO bottom teams and a top team without having everyone say "Why are they adding two bottom teams?" because they cannot SAY "we need a bottom of the league" even though they do.
 

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Somehow I got drug back into this again with the note about 40%.

It's hard to argue against JP's math and the theoretical outcome.
(also, if the BE added 2 teams, the Fox money wouldn't be diluted. They, according to all reports, would keep paying the same/team with 2 more that they are paying now.)

But a real world look is as instructive as the theoretical one.
Right not the A10 has 14 teams. Many have been together for a long time.
If anyone was going to construct a schedule to maximize the number of NCAA bids each year, and 14 should do better than 12, and certainly better than 10,why isn't it working each year for the A10?

The biggest year I think was last year at 6. If anything should be examined and fixed, it's not the BE with 10...but why can't the A10 get more, consistently, acting together the way JP suggests?

I've got to believe the BE presidents/ADs understand what JP is saying, and perhaps they will act on it (making fans of the round robin unhappy). But look at this year's tournament:

ACC 15 teams 7 bids
Big 10 14 teams 7 bids
Big 12 10 teams 7 bids
Pac 10 12 teams 7 bids
Big East 10 teams 5 bids
American 12 teams 4 bids
A10 14 teams 3 bids
SEC 14 teams 3 bids

The success of the Big 12 of 7 teams, and the SEC and A10 getting 3 (should have been 4) may indicate that it's easier to manage a 10 team conference to maximize bids with the OOC scheduling. I don't know if that's true, but it may be.

Seeding also will play some part in helping get more wins in the tournament based on historical results.

All that said, who knows if the BE will expand? If it does, I hope it's with some good thought to maximize all the possibilities for revenue and conference value. It's fun to watch, that's for sure.
 

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Yea, I'm not sure how the narrative is being spun on this A-10 forum that the Big East is the conference that needs fixing when the Big East has 10 teams and in 2016 had 5 bids and earned 12 units and in 2015 had 6 bids and earned 11 units....

When the A-10 has 14 teams and had 3 bids in 2016 and 3 bids in 2015.
 

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Well, the narrative should include how the committee totally fucked us this year. And last year. And the year before that. If not with bids, then absolutely a billion percent with seeding. That could certainly affect our unit production.
 

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The A10 has had it's best 4 year run ever getting:

5
6
3
3 (easily should have been 4)


That's better then any 4 year run when X and Temple were in the league when it actually happened we only had 1 bid one year and numerous years of 2 bids so don't tell me the league was stronger when X and Temple were in it.

The argument for more teams has always included getting the RIGHT teams Paul...did you miss that part of the conversation? No one is advocating that the BE should add any old 4 teams for the hell of it!

The A10 has been what it is since it inception...there's no changing that for the A10 to get 6-7 bids a year. But they COULD do it...but feelings would get hurt and I have no idea what the process would be to "kick" a team or two out. But kick a team or two out and add a Witchita State and say for arguments sake a UNI and now you're looking at probably 5 a year.

The A10 is always going to get the shaft when a committee has to choose between a Vandy and a St. Bona. Or a Syracuse and a Davidson. Or when a committee member mails in a favor to the Tulsa AD. That's not the case with the BE, you guys already started on great footing when you formed. You're comparing leagues that are apples to oranges Paul and you know it.
 

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Now that enough time has gone by I will say that I think Bona not getting in was not as big a snub as you guys are making it out to be. To start with their OOC schedule was horrible. They lost both quality games they played: at home against Hofstra and at Cuse where the got smoked. They lost to a mediocre Siena team, that losses to CAA and MAAC teams for those counting at home. In conference they lost to Duquesne and Lasalle which matters because they had no good OOC wins, none. Even with this spotty record all they had to do was beat a Davidson team that was less than impressive in Brooklyn and they did not get the job done. Do I think they could have gotten in over Tulsa sure but the outrage was overblown.
 

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I guess we differ Rich when we see a team that goes 14-4 in conference and wins a share of the regular season title and grabs 3 Top 25 wins while at it gets left out. For teams with RPIs at 58 and 72 versus 30. Oh well, no biggie.

The argument that all they had to do was beat Davidson and they would be in is BS. The committee would have still found a way to keep them out. No way the committee was going to keep a third SEC team out. Maybe the committee member would have kept his favor to Tulsa in his back pocket and cashed it in later. I could have made the same argument for all of the bubble teams (should have one that one last game guys cause none of them did enough in their conf tourny...how about Vandy getting absolutely destroyed????).

IMO, SBU wasn't even a bubble team.
 

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the only true top 25 win was SJU, I am more annoyed at their seeding than Bonnie's not getting in. Bonnie's did a great job in conference but their poor OOC play left them vulnerable. I think if they beat Davidson they would have gotten in but when they lost they opened the door to get left out. Lets be clear I thought they should have gotten in but did not think it was outrageous they got left out because of their OOC record.
 

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I'm talking Top 25 RPI....there's nothing "true" about the RPI Top 25, 50, 100, ect...it is exactly what it says it is. SBU had 3 Top 25 RPI wins. No one cares about Top 25 rankings wins.
 

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I'm talking Top 25 RPI....there's nothing "true" about the RPI Top 25, 50, 100, ect...it is exactly what it says it is. SBU had 3 Top 25 RPI wins. No one cares about Top 25 rankings wins.
I am a Pomeroy guy. RPI sucks as seen by Bonnie's being ranked 30 in the nation, that is ridiculous. Sagarin had Bonnies at 86.
 

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I guess you can't argue with stupid around here.

maybe one day we'll get to debate Fordham being snubbed from the tourny. One day.

Maybe.

I've forgotten more basketball than you know. If you think the committee isn't looking at Sagarin and Pomeroy as well as RPI you are an imbecile. They are going to those rankings more as time goes on. Dayton got embarrassed first round which was not surprising to anyone who watched you play down the stretch.
 
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