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Yeah... the more time that passes, the clearer it becomes that an overly bloated conference isn’t ideal. If we lost anyone like UMass to the FBS plague, then I wouldn’t add anyone. Nobody jumps off the page like a VCU, Butler, or Davidson did.

If UMass sticks with us, but Fordham went Patriot or La Salle went MAAC (both of which I’ve heard are long term possibilities, by the way), then that’s even more reason to just stand pat.

That said, I hope we roll with the 14 we have now and maximize our respective programs and collective conference.
 

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BTW, this pandemic would be the perfect excuse for some A-10 teams to trim their sport menus, make a sleaker athletic deparment with a higher percentage of resources devoted to basketball. Just saying.
 

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Yeah... the more time that passes, the clearer it becomes that an overly bloated conference isn’t ideal. If we lost anyone like UMass to the FBS plague, then I wouldn’t add anyone. Nobody jumps off the page like a VCU, Butler, or Davidson did.

If UMass sticks with us, but Fordham went Patriot or La Salle went MAAC (both of which I’ve heard are long term possibilities, by the way), then that’s even more reason to just stand pat.

That said, I hope we roll with the 14 we have now and maximize our respective programs and collective conference.
I used to think Fordham to the PL was a possibility, but I see it very much less likely now. We just announced that the new AD will report directly to the president which has not been the case for nearly 30 years. That is not something that seems would be done if the plan is to go back to the PL. Additionally there has been mention on our board that the Board of Trustees is committed to the A10 and is pushing our president to make the necessary commitments to elevate our men’s basketball program in the A10.
 

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St. Thomas is making the rare jump from D3 to D1. I’d imagine the Summit League will be their destination.
St. Thomas is also the extremely rare school (possibly only) to get kicked out of their conference for being too good.

“After extensive membership discussions, the University of St Thomas will be involuntarily removed from membership in the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. The MIAC Presidents’ Council cites athletic competitive parity in the conference as a primary concern."

That was how the whole move started. St. Thomas won 47 percent of all MIAC championships -- both team and individual sports -- from 2003 to 2018.

They are joining the Summit League.... and the Pioneer Football League.


Now you sound like an Xavier fan. Are you ready to bolt as well?
I've always been a pragmatist. The difference between me and a Xavier fan is that I think we should slim down our sports menus to devote more resources to fewer programs and make them better, while those Xavier fans would add "...or be kicked out"
 

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I figured I'd put this here. Scott Galloway (NYU Professor) has gone through and ranked 436 Universities on how they will do during online learning/pandemic responses and sorted them into 4 categories of:
Link: USS University | No Mercy / No Malice
Full Document: US Higher Education: Value vs. Vulnerability - Google Drive

Thrive
Survive
Struggle
Perish

Obviously this isn't a guarantee (and I'm not saying the methodology is perfect or even that I believe this will play out at all like this), and many things could happen. But it also wouldn't be shocking to see some universities and colleges ending up needing to close or drop sports as a result of this. I decided to look at the A10, AAC, and Big East to see which were listed, and then put their category down. A university with sports closing down entirely, or one with sports marked "struggle" (sports could be partially or entirely dropped) could end up leading to realignment in conferences. Here's what we've got (also I may have missed some since there are over 400 in the sheet and they were all listed by full names as opposed to what we colloquially call them):

Atlantic 10:
  • Davidson: Thrive
  • Dayton: Struggle
  • Duquesne: Thrive
  • Fordham: Perish
  • George Mason: Survive
  • George Washington: Survive
  • La Salle: NA
  • Massachusetts: Survive
  • Rhode Island: Survive
  • Richmond: Thrive
  • St. Bonaventure: NA
  • Saint Joseph's: NA
  • Saint Louis: Thrive
  • VCU: Struggle
If Fordham were to perish, I doubt the A10 would rush to replace them since we're already a large conference and they haven't been one of the stronger teams. The NYC presence is definitely something to keep in mind, but in today's world it might not impact things too much

Dayton and VCU are another story though, being strong teams for years. If any sport are dropped, basketball wouldn't be among them. The risk would be if all sports are dropped or if they slip into the perish category. If all 3 were to go, would he league add 1 to get to 12 (especially if it requires replacing 2 of our stronger programs) or would we pull a Big East and stay at 11?


AAC
  • Cincinnati: Thrive
  • ECU: Thrive
  • Houston: Survive
  • Memphis: Survive
  • Navy: NA
  • SMU: Thrive
  • Temple: Survive
  • Tulane: Thrive
  • Tulsa: Struggle
  • UCF: Survive
  • USF: Survive
  • Wichita State: NA
Only Tulsa is listed here. Would they need to drop sports? If so, probably unlikely that Football and Basketball would be included unless all were dropped. If they drop all sports or perish it would push the league down to 10 football teams (which would solve problems that came up when UCONN left in terms of unequal divisions) and likely leave them not looking to expand there. Oddly they would probably only be in the realignment mode if none of the schools had any problems (since they'll likely need to eventually add another football team). There's no reason they would need to expand on the Basketball side if they lost only Tulsa, but would they look to do it anyway?

Big East
  • Butler: NA
  • Connecticut: Survive
  • Creighton: Thrive
  • DePaul: Survive
  • Georgetown: Survive
  • Marquette: Thrive
  • Providence: NA
  • Saint John's: Perish
  • Seton Hall: Perish
  • Villanova: Thrive
  • Xavier: NA
If both Saint John's and Seton Hall actually perished they would drop down to 9 teams and would almost certainly look to get back to 10. Would they try to pull from the A10 and grab SLU (potentially resulting in the A10 dropping to a name accurate 10 teams again if all of the worst case scenarios play out).
 

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This is not a story about a school in one of the 3 conferences discussed by e-Parade, but Canisius College in Buffalo and a member of the MAAC, is trying to close a $20 million deficit, laying off 96 employees, which is including assistant coaching positions. Schools or programs perishing and the resulting impacts on conference compositions seem to be real possibilities.

buffalonews.com/news/local/canisius-college-citing-20-million-deficit-lays-off-96-employees/article_8c5c1780-ca05-11ea-9a5a-fb37c10a4270.html#tracking-source=home-trending
 

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Oh for sure - I'm willing to bet some of the smaller conferences especially would face much more of an impact than these 3. I just picked these ones for obvious reasons (since there have been rumors about A10 schools going to the AAC and Big East over the years). Would have taken far too much of my time to go through all of the conferences out there, but definitely would be an interesting exercise.
 

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Is the "thrive, survive, etc" classification for the school itself...or their sports programs?
 

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I can’t speak for anyone else, but have been told SBU is doing fine right now and is going forward with a variety of projects on campus. Enrollment is up from last year (which was the biggest incoming class in a while), fundraising has gone very well, and the new health sciences program/facilities are on the near horizon.

Tim Kenney, the AD, has said in some season ticket holder Zoom meetings that we are cautiously optimistic that SBU will avoid the major fallout due to its lack of significant overhead (hello, Canisius) and relatively insulated circumstance/location.
 

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Interesting for sure, but the application to athletics is weak at best.

A correlation of University endowment to Athletics spending/success just does not exist, period. We know this because Northwestern is pretty much a bottom feeder in the Big Ten in every sport they sponsor, despite having the ninth largest endowment of any college.

For the most part, athletics are independent of the University. Athletics isn’t getting their budget resources from endowment. They’re getting it from revenue and fundraising.


Is UD going to struggle to deal with the pandemic’s effect on enrollment? Sure, EVERYONE is. But it’s not like they are going to struggle to keep athletics.

MAYBE, Dayton uses this moment to drop football, which they lose a ton of money on, and also would let them trim down the women’s side as well, lowering expenses. But I doubt it (The Evansville Effect is real).

Fordham is more likely to trim some sports. Big East teams perishing? Not happening. Belt tightening, for sure.


But athletics are free advertising. As academic institutions, St. John’s best form of advertising is playing Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, etc on national TV. Butler was a cute little Horizon program before making a massive name for themselves with Final Four runs and parlaying that into the Big East invite.

Honestly, the Big East and A-10 are probably the best suited to survive/thrive on the other side of the pandemic. The programs who are spending on football to try and keep up and suddenly have no income from college football… those are the people who are screwed. Which is why the MAC has already cut sports teams left and right.
 

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Is the "thrive, survive, etc" classification for the school itself...or their sports programs?
This is about the universities in general, and not just sports. "Perish" would mean they close as an entity entirely.

Here's the definition of these categories per the original posting of it:

  • Thrive: The elite schools and those that offer strong value have an opportunity to emerge stronger as they consolidate the market, double down on exclusivity, and/or embrace big and small tech to increase the value via a decrease in cost per student.
  • Survive: Schools that will see demand destruction and lower revenue, but will be fine, as they have the brand equity, credential-to-cost ratio, and/or endowments to weather the storm.
  • Struggle: Tier-2 schools with one or more comorbidities, such as high admit rates (anemic waiting lists), high tuition, or scant endowments.
  • Perish: Sodium pentathol cocktail of high admit rates, high tuition, low endowments, dependence on international students, and weak brand equity.
 

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I figured I'd put this here. Scott Galloway (NYU Professor) has gone through and ranked 436 Universities on how they will do during online learning/pandemic responses and sorted them into 4 categories of:
Link: USS University | No Mercy / No Malice
Full Document: US Higher Education: Value vs. Vulnerability - Google Drive

Thrive
Survive
Struggle
Perish

Obviously this isn't a guarantee (and I'm not saying the methodology is perfect or even that I believe this will play out at all like this), and many things could happen. But it also wouldn't be shocking to see some universities and colleges ending up needing to close or drop sports as a result of this. I decided to look at the A10, AAC, and Big East to see which were listed, and then put their category down. A university with sports closing down entirely, or one with sports marked "struggle" (sports could be partially or entirely dropped) could end up leading to realignment in conferences. Here's what we've got (also I may have missed some since there are over 400 in the sheet and they were all listed by full names as opposed to what we colloquially call them):

Atlantic 10:
  • Davidson: Thrive
  • Dayton: Struggle
  • Duquesne: Thrive
  • Fordham: Perish
  • George Mason: Survive
  • George Washington: Survive
  • La Salle: NA
  • Massachusetts: Survive
  • Rhode Island: Survive
  • Richmond: Thrive
  • St. Bonaventure: NA
  • Saint Joseph's: NA
  • Saint Louis: Thrive
  • VCU: Struggle
If Fordham were to perish, I doubt the A10 would rush to replace them since we're already a large conference and they haven't been one of the stronger teams. The NYC presence is definitely something to keep in mind, but in today's world it might not impact things too much

Dayton and VCU are another story though, being strong teams for years. If any sport are dropped, basketball wouldn't be among them. The risk would be if all sports are dropped or if they slip into the perish category. If all 3 were to go, would he league add 1 to get to 12 (especially if it requires replacing 2 of our stronger programs) or would we pull a Big East and stay at 11?


AAC
  • Cincinnati: Thrive
  • ECU: Thrive
  • Houston: Survive
  • Memphis: Survive
  • Navy: NA
  • SMU: Thrive
  • Temple: Survive
  • Tulane: Thrive
  • Tulsa: Struggle
  • UCF: Survive
  • USF: Survive
  • Wichita State: NA
Only Tulsa is listed here. Would they need to drop sports? If so, probably unlikely that Football and Basketball would be included unless all were dropped. If they drop all sports or perish it would push the league down to 10 football teams (which would solve problems that came up when UCONN left in terms of unequal divisions) and likely leave them not looking to expand there. Oddly they would probably only be in the realignment mode if none of the schools had any problems (since they'll likely need to eventually add another football team). There's no reason they would need to expand on the Basketball side if they lost only Tulsa, but would they look to do it anyway?

Big East
  • Butler: NA
  • Connecticut: Survive
  • Creighton: Thrive
  • DePaul: Survive
  • Georgetown: Survive
  • Marquette: Thrive
  • Providence: NA
  • Saint John's: Perish
  • Seton Hall: Perish
  • Villanova: Thrive
  • Xavier: NA
If both Saint John's and Seton Hall actually perished they would drop down to 9 teams and would almost certainly look to get back to 10. Would they try to pull from the A10 and grab SLU (potentially resulting in the A10 dropping to a name accurate 10 teams again if all of the worst case scenarios play out).
If VCU and UD drop all sports we all will have better things to worrying about than adding new schools to the A10.
 

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Like one of my friends likes to say, "the struggle is real my brother."
 

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If VCU and UD drop all sports we all will have better things to worrying about than adding new schools to the A10.
Well yeah, but this is the conference reshuffle thread. The other things we'd have to worry about would be more suited to the impending doom thread. I felt like bringing it up in a way that didn't require us to be all doom all the time, but feel free to go down that route if you'd like.
 

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Let’s all settle down.

View attachment 20838
He really upset me sharing an article that says VCU is a Tier 2 school with a minimal waiting list. When I went in the 80s it was probably the same but I never waited to get into bars for $1 pitcher night.
 
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