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Are you saying there were enough bars to cover the needs of the population or that there wasn't too much interest as to cause overflow? One of these is good planning and the other is something that should be worked on.
 

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Are you saying there were enough bars to cover the needs of the population or that there wasn't too much interest as to cause overflow? One of these is good planning and the other is something that should be worked on.
Lots of Tier 2 bars on Grace Street back in the day. Minimal waiting list.
 

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I figured I'd put this here. Scott Galloway (NYU Professor) has gone through and ranked 436 Universities on how they will do during online learning/pandemic responses and sorted them into 4 categories of:
Link: USS University | No Mercy / No Malice
Full Document: US Higher Education: Value vs. Vulnerability - Google Drive

Thrive
Survive
Struggle
Perish

Obviously this isn't a guarantee (and I'm not saying the methodology is perfect or even that I believe this will play out at all like this), and many things could happen. But it also wouldn't be shocking to see some universities and colleges ending up needing to close or drop sports as a result of this. I decided to look at the A10, AAC, and Big East to see which were listed, and then put their category down. A university with sports closing down entirely, or one with sports marked "struggle" (sports could be partially or entirely dropped) could end up leading to realignment in conferences. Here's what we've got (also I may have missed some since there are over 400 in the sheet and they were all listed by full names as opposed to what we colloquially call them):

Atlantic 10:
  • Davidson: Thrive
  • Dayton: Struggle
  • Duquesne: Thrive
  • Fordham: Perish
  • George Mason: Survive
  • George Washington: Survive
  • La Salle: NA
  • Massachusetts: Survive
  • Rhode Island: Survive
  • Richmond: Thrive
  • St. Bonaventure: NA
  • Saint Joseph's: NA
  • Saint Louis: Thrive
  • VCU: Struggle
If Fordham were to perish, I doubt the A10 would rush to replace them since we're already a large conference and they haven't been one of the stronger teams. The NYC presence is definitely something to keep in mind, but in today's world it might not impact things too much

Dayton and VCU are another story though, being strong teams for years. If any sport are dropped, basketball wouldn't be among them. The risk would be if all sports are dropped or if they slip into the perish category. If all 3 were to go, would he league add 1 to get to 12 (especially if it requires replacing 2 of our stronger programs) or would we pull a Big East and stay at 11?


AAC
  • Cincinnati: Thrive
  • ECU: Thrive
  • Houston: Survive
  • Memphis: Survive
  • Navy: NA
  • SMU: Thrive
  • Temple: Survive
  • Tulane: Thrive
  • Tulsa: Struggle
  • UCF: Survive
  • USF: Survive
  • Wichita State: NA
Only Tulsa is listed here. Would they need to drop sports? If so, probably unlikely that Football and Basketball would be included unless all were dropped. If they drop all sports or perish it would push the league down to 10 football teams (which would solve problems that came up when UCONN left in terms of unequal divisions) and likely leave them not looking to expand there. Oddly they would probably only be in the realignment mode if none of the schools had any problems (since they'll likely need to eventually add another football team). There's no reason they would need to expand on the Basketball side if they lost only Tulsa, but would they look to do it anyway?

Big East
  • Butler: NA
  • Connecticut: Survive
  • Creighton: Thrive
  • DePaul: Survive
  • Georgetown: Survive
  • Marquette: Thrive
  • Providence: NA
  • Saint John's: Perish
  • Seton Hall: Perish
  • Villanova: Thrive
  • Xavier: NA
If both Saint John's and Seton Hall actually perished they would drop down to 9 teams and would almost certainly look to get back to 10. Would they try to pull from the A10 and grab SLU (potentially resulting in the A10 dropping to a name accurate 10 teams again if all of the worst case scenarios play out).
If the 3 schools listed as "Perish ", were to perish as institutions, I think there would be a lot more to follow...
 

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If the 3 schools listed as "Perish ", were to perish as institutions, I think there would be a lot more to follow...
I took some time to look at this study - mainly because I find this type of analysis interesting. It doesn’t make sense as a stress test because the metrics aren’t a measure of a university’s ability to weather a shutdown. It’s a stack ranking.

To your point, there will be other universities impacted well before these three start to struggle. UD reported over $900 million in investments on its latest audited financial statements of which roughly $600 million is its endowment, VCU’s endowment is over a billion dollars, and I suspect that Fordham is somewhere in this mix as well. These three schools have the financial wherewithal to manage through the virus. If anything, there will be a consolidation as schools not positioned as well financially in theory struggle or close.
 

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Yeah the study didn't look at the vast majority of institutions out there. Obviously if a school like any of those were to perish there would be many more that come before it. "Struggle" will most likely be fine in most cases as well. "Perish" institutions are the ones to watch out for, and even with those this isn't a guarantee (obviously). Based on the factors presented here, those are just the riskiest ones.

Someone could be working on a different study with different factors weighed in that has extremely different results. This was just the first large one I've seen that had anything of note for a majority of this (and other major) conference.
 

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I would worry about anyone with an N/A next to their name well before I would worry about Fordham. There are more realistic ways of ousting Fordham from the A10 than thinking they will shut down.
 

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I know it SOUNDS crazy, but I really don't think the pandemic is going to have an effect on conference alignment at the Division I level.

I mean, sure, some broke schools could cut sports and alter affiliate conferences a lot, but that's for like, field hockey and stuff. Not basketball.

Wichita State isn't going to decide they can't afford to fly to UCF/USF and re-join the MVC. That's just not happening.

The travel savings would be marginal. They're not spending $4 million more in travel in the AAC, but they ARE getting $4.5 million more in TV revenue in the AAC.



At the "one-bid level" could you see someone sliding into a different conference for better geography? In theory, yes. But in practice, that's almost already done happening organically.

  • Hawaii already left the Old WAC to be in a conference with 5 LA schools and 4 other California schools.
  • Oakland, Fort Wayne and IUPUI left the Summit for the Horizon.
  • UMKC left the WAC for the Summit
  • NJIT left the A-SUN for the AmEast
Everyone left isolated has no where to go.

  • Seattle in the WAC. They've wanted into the WCC for 20 years.
  • UT Rio Grande Valley in the WAC, they've wanted into the Southland for 20 years.
  • Lipscomb in the A-SUN, they've wanted into the OVC for 20 years.

So barring a bunch of Sun Belt and C-USA schools getting together and saying "Hey, let's make our own more regionally ideal 10-team conference," there really isn't much that can happen.
 
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