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Also, UConn had the Big East and that fat check waiting for them. If Temple comes back to the A10 and drops football, have to imagine they'd lose some dough, right?
 

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Yeah, it's fun to talk about, but the money doesn't work.

Wichita State makes SLIGHTLY more than the A-10 in media revenue as a basketball-only AAC team. Our top teams make more money from NCAA units because the AAC evenly splits the revenue and we don't (fun fact: the Bonnies will get more NCAA unit $$$ than Houston this year!)

Temple on the other hand, has a promise of $7.5 million AAV (less now, more later) from the AAC from ESPN for football/basketball. (We all assume ESPN put in a clause that could shave that down if they lose the teams they just lost).

Temple doesn't have the market for Indy football games and WBB that UConn did. They're not getting anywhere close to $3 million for the non-Army/non-ND independents playing 5 games as "Atlantic 10 football" in an unofficial conference, and the A-10 isn't getting $5 million in TV revenue by adding Temple and Wichita State.


I hate talking like a "kick out _" mongo, but we can't make ruthless big boy moves in the conference realignment game targeting other schools weakened by turmoil when we aren't ruthless within our league and legislate two of our schools into finding new homes.

The only big boy move that could be made without kicking someone out would be leaving to form a new league with left behind members who are good in basketball, but in small markets. And I'd rather stay in bed with private schools in NYC, Philly and DC than trade them for Marshall and WKU.
 

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And of course, there's the big boy move I suggested the other day that got laughed at, where the money WOULD work. It's just a matter of "would they agree to spend 2 out of every 14 days on an airplane"
 

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I would never add Memphis because it's clear to me that the MBB program has no intentions of commiting to winning. They're commiting to being a "destination" for top players. It's how they're recruiting regular students who follow these guys on social media. I honestly think that's fine, but I'd never add them to a BB league.
 

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I would never add Memphis because it's clear to me that the MBB program has no intentions of commiting to winning. They're commiting to being a "destination" for top players. It's how they're recruiting regular students who follow these guys on social media. I honestly think that's fine, but I'd never add them to a BB league.
I wouldn't add Memphis because they are a football school, and will stay as long as Butler did. Football aside, not sure why you wouldn't want a school like Memphis. Huge fanbase, great facilites, etc.

Nonetheless, pointless conversation. Wichita is the only realistic option and that's still unlikely.
 

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Wichita is a much better institutional fit with the MWC.

I know exit fees are the issue, but it would make way more sense for the AAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt to explode. Reform with more regionally sane conferences, given the lack of P5 revenue and support.
 

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Basically what I'm gathering from this is that the A10 will be best hoops conference outside of the "P7."

MWC could easily take us over some years, but nonetheless, I think the AAC will have a very difficult time being a top 10 conference in hoops. Memphis is as good as gone plus maybe SMU or Tulsa.

I know people the the AAC is going to raid the MWC, but it seems odd they'd leave for a conference with such little stability. Many think Memphis will get a Big 12 invite in the not so distant future.
 

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Basically what I'm gathering from this is that the A10 will be best hoops conference outside of the "P7."

MWC could easily take us over some years, but nonetheless, I think the AAC will have a very difficult time being a top 10 conference in hoops. Memphis is as good as gone plus maybe SMU or Tulsa.

I know people the the AAC is going to raid the MWC, but it seems odd they'd leave for a conference with such little stability. Many think Memphis will get a Big 12 invite in the not so distant future.
Yep. MWC schools would be nuts to bolt for the sinking, bastardized AAC. Memphis and SMU are desperately trying to get out, and the former will almost certainly be at or near the top of the Big 12’s list if/when Kansas bolts for the Big Ten.
 

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Well there's talk that that the B12 might expand to 14 anyway after Oklahoma and Texas are both out. That would almost certainly contain Memphis, and the other choice would come from the group of Boise, Colorado State, and USF.
 

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Yep. MWC schools would be nuts to bolt for the sinking, bastardized AAC. Memphis and SMU are desperately trying to get out, and the former will almost certainly be at or near the top of the Big 12’s list if/when Kansas bolts for the Big Ten.
Kansas? Why would the Big10 even want them or really any of the schools that were left. Why would the Big 12 even want to expand to 14. That only dilutes what's left of their brand with more AAC's. This stuff seems pretty close to the end game.

It also sounds like Colorado St and Air Force might be leaving if you read into the MWC Commish's statements.

Mountain West commissioner pushes back against possible poaching from AAC

Those are the top 2 largest budget schools in the MWC (SDSU 3rd). If they leave that would put a lot of pressure on San Diego St and Boise to risk getting left behind, especially SDSU who has less hope of ever of the Big12 pipedream.

The next obvious target that has been mentioned is Army, and with Navy it seems like a good chance they come as a football only like Navy and make the AAC the academy league. That will help retain the media value with 3 national schools. The AAC comish has said he expects no drop in TV revenue and he was a former ESPN executive who is connected and ESPN has an interest to help the AAC rebuild at the MWC expense which isn't an ESPN league.

Army as football only would open up a spot for basketball counterpart like the Wichita St/ Navy combo currently. I think the obvious focus will be to look towards the A10 to fill that. St. Louis with it's history in old CUSA with several of the schools would be one of the first likely called.
 

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Army has repeatedly said they want no part of being in any football conference. Why would this change that about them?
 

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Army has repeatedly said they want no part of being in any football conference. Why would this change that about them?
Army was a football only in old CUSA with 4 of the 8 left members so there is plenty of precedent. You got to remember why they left, they were the worst program in the nation on like a 20 game losing streak and they wanted to schedule more competitive games. That has since changed as they are solid as has Navy going from indy to the AAC as well, and spots are open now.

If Navy is there and possibly Air Force it is different now they are in a better place. My understanding is it's also getting harder to schedule especially later in the fall and as the P5's are trying to squeeze out the G5's off their schedule.

One thing Air Force seems to like about potentially moving the AAC is that it opens up more freedom to their OOC to have games with Navy they play every year anyway to have in conference. Same would be said for Navy vs Army or Air Force/ Army so I could see where they could encouraging Army to get on board and moving as a 3 team block.
 

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https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP

"Hearing this morning that this is much farther along than you might think. I'd honestly be a little surprised if AFA and CSU dont leave the MWC."

Matt Brown
@MattBrownEP

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2h

"Nothing is a done deal or anything, but based on what I've heard, I would also be surprised if UAB doesn't join the AAC."



MWC board is saying Boise and SDSU also met with the AAC last week. If they were to come they might be football only as well. I see that as less likely but you never know if Air Force and CSU are gone how that impacts them, they have been close to joining before. Army I think will remain a target and Air Force helps that.
 

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I could understand Air Force wanting to join the same league as the other service academies, but Colorado State leaving the MWC for the AAC seems strange. Are the leftovers of the AAC, some of whom are actively and desperately trying to move to another league themselves, really more attractive than the still-solid, regionally relevant MWC?
 

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The AAC wanting Colorado State seems odd to me. You're expanding for football right? So why are you inviting a team that lost to an FCS opponent two weeks ago?
 

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Army was a football only in old CUSA with 4 of the 8 left members so there is plenty of precedent. You got to remember why they left, they were the worst program in the nation on like a 20 game losing streak and they wanted to schedule more competitive games. That has since changed as they are solid as has Navy going from indy to the AAC as well, and spots are open now.

If Navy is there and possibly Air Force it is different now they are in a better place. My understanding is it's also getting harder to schedule especially later in the fall and as the P5's are trying to squeeze out the G5's off their schedule.

One thing Air Force seems to like about potentially moving the AAC is that it opens up more freedom to their OOC to have games with Navy they play every year anyway to have in conference. Same would be said for Navy vs Army or Air Force/ Army so I could see where they could encouraging Army to get on board and moving as a 3 team block.
I disagree on most assessments of the service academies. You have to remember that the service academies aren't playing the same conference realignment game as everyone else.

Army joined C-USA 1.0 because the 9 of the other 11 members of that league at the time were within 2 hours of massive military installations. They said as much when they joined, and when they left after the Big East raided C-USA the first time. (And of course, it's a balance of road games near army bases and also trying to get wins, or get on TV).

Air Force was in the WAC and MWC because of geography and there's a lot fewer AFBs than Army bases. In the Mountain Time Zone, there's far fewer teams out west, so they needed a conference.

Navy joined the American because there were too few Navy bases to be independent and take their team around to Naval bases, and at the time, the AAC has a bunch of teams near Naval installations.

Navy's probably encouraging the AAC to add Air Force and San Diego State.
 

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It just seems to me that the Big 12 and AAC are making defensive moves:

A. The Big 12 adding Boise State and Memphis later is to ensure they don't get passed by the MWC or AAC down the road.

B. The AAC adding MWC teams is so they don't get passed by the MWC down the road.

But it could really blow up in the AAC's face, because we saw C-USA take the "best markets" and "best teams" when they expanded, and became too big and the markets have bad football teams; and the Sun Belt just took winning FCS programs in App State and Coastal and watched them become winning FBS programs and pass C-USA on the quality rankings (but probably not the expansion rankings).
 

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The AAC wanting Colorado State seems odd to me. You're expanding for football right? So why are you inviting a team that lost to an FCS opponent two weeks ago?
CUSA took UCF coming off an 0-11 season and look at their progression. This isn't about what have you done lately when you are projecting out a potentially decades long partnership IMO this time. Coaches and success come and go and ebb and flow, what are the fundamentals like budget, facilities and overall potential etc are key.

Colorado St is one of the richest G5 programs even while they have been bad, and it's a healthy budget that isn't mostly student fee's like most other candidates who are in many cases are 10's of millions poorer. They just opened a new football stadium too. What can they be when good if they are that off a 3-9 season.


Would you rather take a brand that's the 2nd best school in a sizable state or say App State who is good right now but who cycles coaches and is one bad hire away from being like USM. Colorado St will always have millions of dollars more to throw at coaches and problems than these other schools and they have had good football before and will again I'm sure. They just went to 5 straight bowls from 2013-2017 and played all of 7 games over the last 2 years with their new coach and stadium thanks to Covid.
 

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CUSA took UCF coming off an 0-11 season and look at their progression. This isn't about what have you done lately when you are projecting out a potentially decades long partnership IMO this time. Coaches and success come and go and ebb and flow, what are the fundamentals like budget, facilities and overall potential etc are key.

Colorado St is one of the richest G5 programs even while they have been bad, and it's a healthy budget that isn't mostly student fee's like most other candidates who are in many cases are 10's of millions poorer. They just opened a new football stadium too. What can they be when good if they are that off a 3-9 season.


Would you rather take a brand that's the 2nd best school in a sizable state or say App State who is good right now but who cycles coaches and is one bad hire away from being like USM. Colorado St will always have millions of dollars more to throw at coaches and problems than these other schools and they have had good football before and will again I'm sure. They just went to 5 straight bowls from 2013-2017 and played all of 7 games over the last 2 years with their new coach and stadium thanks to Covid.
UCF was 0-11 in their last MAC season, but they had been invited in the late summer/early fall of 2003, when they were coming off three straight winnings. Also, UCF is freaking huge and has always been a sleeping giant.

I get that it's not "what have you done for me lately" and conference realignment is a two-way street. But if Colorado State is one of the richest G5 programs in a sustainable way, how come that hasn't translated into significant football success? They're 127-141 in football since the Mountain West was formed, in 23 seasons.

And I'd rather have App State than Colorado State easily. You say App State cycles coaches (correct), and is one bad hire away from being USM.... but App State's had ONE losing season in football since 1984. And that one season, 4-8, was their last year in FCS when they were redshirting their senior class so those kids could play a year of FBS football. Toss that season and it's five different coaches over 36 years, zero losing seasons? And they're 70-20 since joining FBS? A bowl trip and bowl win in each season they've been eligible?

They've been ranked in each of the last four seasons.... Colorado State has gotten ranked in two seasons since 1954.


There's a two-pronged approach to adding schools, you want markets/fan bases for TV viewers, and Colorado State is good there. You ALSO want good programs/teams. There comes a point where winning matters more than market/fan base. For example, Alabama is 5/9ths the population of New Jersey, but the Tide WIN and Rutgers doesn't.


The AAC looks to be targeting MWC schools because they want to hurt the MWC to keep that league below them, rather than take the schools that have the best chance to win on the football field to maintain their status.
 
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