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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
For those new to the board, I handicap basketball based on team efficiency that has been a work in progress since I began studying basketball metrics and predicitabilty in '96.

I do not start this analysis until all teams have played at least 10 games in order to have an adequate sample size. The system looks at all offensive and defensive possessions played up until that point. As such, the ratings are extremely volatile early in the year and begin settling in around the All-Star break.

Important to note, the following are not factored into the ratings themselves:
Strength of Schedule
Home vs. Away
Injuries
Garbage Time

Historically, teams start more bunched together earlier in the year and separate themselves as the regular season wears on:
9+ (2-4 teams) = legitimate championship contenders
4-9 (4-8 teams) = playoff locks for the championship
0-4 (6-8 teams) = fighting for playoff spots

I probably will not be doing this weekly, but I will try and get it out every couple of weeks. Enjoy!
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #2 (Edited)
As of games completed 11/26
1 Miami 7.6
2 Oklahoma City 7.3
3 San Antonio 6.4
4 LA Clippers 6.0
5 New York 6.0
6 Atlanta 5.1
7 LA Lakers 4.2
8 Memphis 3.9
9 Dallas 1.9
10 Brooklyn 1.7
11 Indiana 0.6
12 Golden State 0.5
13 Boston 0.4
14 Houston 0.1
15 Milwaukee 0.0
16 Denver -0.2
17 Utah -0.5
18 Chicago -1.2
19 Orlando -1.8
20 Minnesota -2.2
21 Philadelphia -2.3
22 Sacramento -3.4
23 Detroit -3.9
24 New Orleans -3.9
25 Portland -4.4
26 Toronto -4.5
27 Charlotte -4.7
28 Phoenix -5.1
29 Washington -6.9
30 Cleveland -8.6

Most Overrated
1. Memphis
2. Cleveland
3. Phoenix
4. Charlotte
5. Chicago

Most Underrated
1. Miami
2. Dallas
3. Atlanta

***The most overrated category means that if these teams continue to play as they have been, their rating is most likely to fall. Conversely, the most underated category means that if teams play as they have been, their rating is more likely to increase.
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #5
As of games completed 11/26
1 Miami 7.6
2 Oklahoma City 7.3
3 San Antonio 6.4
4 LA Clippers 6.0
5 New York 6.0
6 Atlanta 5.1
7 LA Lakers 4.2
8 Memphis 3.9
9 Dallas 1.9
10 Brooklyn 1.7
11 Indiana 0.6
12 Golden State 0.5
13 Boston 0.4
14 Houston 0.1
15 Milwaukee 0.0
16 Denver -0.2
17 Utah -0.5
18 Chicago -1.2
19 Orlando -1.8
20 Minnesota -2.2
21 Philadelphia -2.3
22 Sacramento -3.4
23 Detroit -3.9
24 New Orleans -3.9
25 Portland -4.4
26 Toronto -4.5
27 Charlotte -4.7
28 Phoenix -5.1
29 Washington -6.9
30 Cleveland -8.6
Appreciate the kudos. I always enjoy taking a step back and looking at the league from a different perspective as well. A few takeaways from the rankings:

Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and New York look deserving of their records.

Both LA teams seem like they should have a better record what they currently have. I would expect their winning % to go up in future games if everything holds constant.

Brooklyn, Memphis, Philadelphia, Charlotte and Phoenix do not look deserving of their records. I would expect to chalk their records up to "luck" or schedule and would expect their winning % to fall as the regular season continues.

This is particularly good news to us from the Charlotte pick standpoint as they rank #27 in the league despite the 7-6 record.
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #6
As of games completed 12/10:

1 Oklahoma City 11.7
2 San Antonio 10.7
3 LA Clippers 7.3
4 Miami 6.1
5 New York 5.9
6 Atlanta 4.5
7 Memphis 3.8
8 LA Lakers 3.5
9 Boston 2.6
10 Chicago 2.6
11 Golden State 1.8
12 Indiana 0.9
13 Utah 0.9
14 Brooklyn 0.5
15 Minnesota 0.4
16 Dallas 0.1
17 Denver -0.4
18 Detroit -0.7
19 Houston -1.9
20 Milwaukee -2.4
21 Orlando -2.6
22 Sacramento -3.1
23 Philadelphia -3.6
24 Portland -5.6
25 Phoenix -5.7
26 New Orleans -5.9
27 Toronto -6.8
28 Washington -7.7
29 Charlotte -7.7
30 Cleveland -9.4

Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Oklahoma City 4.4
San Antonio 4.3
Chicago 3.8

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Charlotte -3.0
Milwaukee -2.5
Toronto -2.3

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Oklahoma City
Boston
San Antonio

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Cleveland
Memphis
Brooklyn
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #7
Every team on the previous overrated list went down in rating with the exception of the Bulls, who went up in rating in addition to coming off the overrated list. This means their total efficiency went up.

Conversely, the only team on the previous underrated list that moved up is Oklahoma City.

Clippers seem on the verge of being one of the elite teams in the league. Can't say the same for New York, Memphis, Lakers, Boston, or Chicago to date. Of course injuries are a factor here as well.
 

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Sounds about right. Poor Bulls. Derrick will be back.
 

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It is kind of amazing.

Go Bulls!
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #11
As of games completed 12/31:

1 LA Clippers 9.9
2 San Antonio 9.8
3 Miami 9.1
4 Oklahoma City 9.0
5 New York 3.8
6 LA Lakers 3.0
7 Indiana 3.0
8 Golden State 2.9
9 Atlanta 2.9
10 Denver 2.3
11 Houston 2.0
12 Memphis 1.9
13 Chicago 0.7
14 Boston 0.3
15 Orlando 0.3
16 Brooklyn -1.1
17 Minnesota -1.1
18 Milwaukee -1.2
19 Dallas -1.6
20 Utah -1.7
21 Detroit -1.7
22 Philadelphia -2.6
23 Portland -3.0
24 Phoenix -4.3
25 Toronto -4.5
26 Sacramento -5.4
27 New Orleans -5.7
28 Cleveland -8.1
29 Washington -8.2
30 Charlotte -10.3

Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Houston 3.9
Miami 3.0
Orlando 2.9

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Oklahoma City -2.7
Utah -2.6
Charlotte -2.6

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Dallas
San Antonio

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Memphis
Cleveland
Minnesota
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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6,181 Posts
Discussion Starter #12
As of games completed 2/4:
1 San Antonio 9.9
2 Oklahoma City 8.8
3 Miami 8.0
4 LA Clippers 7.1
5 Denver 3.0
6 Atlanta 2.4
7 Golden State 2.3
8 LA Lakers 2.3
9 New York 2.1
10 Indiana 2.0
11 Chicago 1.8
12 Houston 1.7
13 Memphis 0.9
14 Detroit -0.3
15 Boston -0.5
16 Brooklyn -0.6
17 Milwaukee -1.0
18 Dallas -1.3
19 Orlando -1.4
20 Utah -1.5
21 Toronto -1.8
22 Portland -2.2
23 Philadelphia -3.1
24 New Orleans -3.7
25 Washington -4.4
26 Phoenix -4.4
27 Minnesota -4.5
28 Sacramento -5.8
29 Cleveland -7.3
30 Charlotte -9.3


Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Washington 3.9
Toronto 2.8
New Orleans 2.0

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Minnesota -3.4
LA Clippers -2.8
New York -1.8

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Miami
Orlando

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Memphis
Minnesota
Cleveland
New York
 

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Jeez. Is San Antonio really that good? That's more unbelievable than what the Bulls are doing!
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #15
To me, the most exciting news is seeing who is in the 30th slot. I don't see Charlotte as an attractive FA destination, so they really are going to have to score in the draft to make major improvements for their pick to be low by the time we inherit it.
 

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Anti Monday Morning QB
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Discussion Starter #16
As of games completed 3/24:
1 San Antonio 9.9
2 Oklahoma City 9.8
3 Miami 8.9
4 LA Clippers 6.2
5 Indiana 4.9
6 Denver 4.8
7 Houston 3.4
8 Atlanta 2.8
9 LA Lakers 2.0
10 Boston 2.0
11 Memphis 1.8
12 Golden State 1.7
13 New York 1.3
14 Dallas 0.6
15 Brooklyn -0.1
16 Chicago -0.2
17 Portland -1.3
18 Washington -1.4
19 Milwaukee -1.6
20 Utah -1.8
21 Toronto -2.1
22 Philadelphia -3.4
23 Detroit -4.0
24 New Orleans -4.2
25 Orlando -5.2
26 Sacramento -5.3
27 Minnesota -5.4
28 Cleveland -6.2
29 Phoenix -6.3
30 Charlotte -11.2


Who's Hot - largest positive change in rating
Washington 3.0
Indiana 2.9
Boston 2.5

Who's Not - largest negative change in rating
Orlando -3.8
Detroit -3.7
Chicago -2.0

Most Underrated - rating I expect to go up the most
Atlanta
San Antonio

Most Overrated - rating I expect to go down the most
Cleveland
Memphis
Minnesota
 
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