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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
RICHMOND

W - NOV. 9 LIBERTY
W- NOV. 13 UNC WILMINGTON
W - NOV. 15 HAMPTON
L - Nov. 18 at Minnesota
W - NOV.20 WOFFORD
L - Nov. 24 at Ohio
W - NOV. 28 WILLIAM & MARY
W - DEC. 1 WAKE FOREST
L - Dec. 4 at Old Dominion
L - Dec. 8 at James Madison
W - DEC. 15 STETSON
L - Dec. 18 at Kansas
W - Dec. 22 vs. George Mason (Richmond Coliseum)
W- Dec. 29 DAVIDSON
W - Jan. 2 AIR FORCE


NONCON FORECAST: 10-5

A-10 FORECAST: 9-7

OVERALL PREDICTION: 19-12

Liberty lost its best player and point guard to graduation and is not a very good defensive team. UNC Wilmington is young and has had a lot of roster turnover. Hampton has 10 new players. I see Richmond sweeping this trio of games at home.

Minnesota is a tough road trip and Tubby Smith has a good, veteran team. Spidies lose that one.

Richmond bounces back with a win at home over Wofford, a decent but young team that is devoid of any juniors or seniors.

Ohio captures the first of two A-1 scalps with a win over the visiting Spiders. Ohio's excellent backcourt neutralizes Richmond's and the Spider bigmen are not enough to carry the game.

Richmond returns home for a pair of wins over a rebuilding Wake Forest and local rival William and Mary. W&M was 6-26 last year and has a lot of work ahead to become as competitive as the school was just a few years ago.

Wake is much further along. Two very good seniors, shooting guard CJ Harris and combo forward, Travis McKie lead a bunch of good young players. Richmond is still the better team, however, and playing at home. More depth, more experience, more guard play.

Richmond goes on the road vs CAA foes ODU and James Madison. If the Spiders want to contend, they have to be good enough to win one of these games. They seldom far well at ODU, so I call it a loss.

JMU is more experienced and plays better D than Richmond, but the Spiders ARE more talented. This is the better bet for a win, but I go conservative and mark a loss.

Richmond beats a mediocre Stetson team (20 losses last year) before going on the road to Kansas.

I don't see Richmond duplicating its upset win at Kansas during the Jerry Wainwright era, but kansas does not have as much star power in the frontcourt or backcourt as it normally does. At least not star power. Spiders might even have a clear backcourt edge and their guards will have to be superb to pull off a signature win.

Richmond finishes off its noncon slate with tough, gritty wins over George Mason and Davidson, both 20-win teams a year ago, and a win over coach Chris Mooney's old haunt.

GMU is not defense-minded enough to beat Richmond and Davidson lacks enough firepower. Airforce, where Mooney got his first Div. 1 coaching gig, has one very good player in Michael Lyons and is an average team at best.
 

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Wish we had an exempt tournament in our schedule this year. Those events have been good for us in the past.
 

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I'm not sure why you think that JMU plays better D than the Spiders. Ken Pom had them at #274 in Adjusted D with the Spiders checking in at #155.

The Spiders also added Air Force as their final non-conference game. Change the JMU L to a W and throw in a W against AirForce and the Spiders get to 20 wins this season.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
I'm not sure why you think that JMU plays better D than the Spiders. Ken Pom had them at #274 in Adjusted D with the Spiders checking in at #155.

The Spiders also added Air Force as their final non-conference game. Change the JMU L to a W and throw in a W against AirForce and the Spiders get to 20 wins this season.
Probably based on a couple of JMU games I saw last year. Obviously too small a sample. Re-checking JMU's yearlong stats, it would seem the Spiders were somewhat better.
 

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Wish we had an exempt tournament in our schedule this year. Those events have been good for us in the past.
Believe it or not, we are in an exempt tournament...we have to be because our schedule has 31 games. The NCAA only allows either 29 games or 27 games plus an exempt tournament of up to four games.

The official UR schedule lists it as the "Nation of Coaches Classic", and it includes the UNCW, Hampton, Wofford, and Ohio games. But unlike most tournaments, there's no central site for even a part of it. And no marquee BCS teams in it.
 

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Not sure how UR can project any wins and losses yet for UR with the Ododa-Nelson situation ongoing. Losing a guy projected to be a key cog - not to mention the Spiders tallest starter would be a huge blow in playing tall, physical teams. Williams, though a force, is still only 6'6" at PF. Putting Piotrowski - tall, but skinny and still raw and likely to be overpowered inside - would be a change. I think UR would go to smaller, athletic 3 guard lineups to emphasize the strengths of the team with Williams playing center and Robbins sliding to PF, along with true freshmen Allen and Taylor. But that kind of lineup is really, really small and would likely get killed on the boards and the blocks by talented post players.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I am assuming, for now, that Ododa-Nelson's situation will be resolved soon. If not, I will readjust.

I also assume he can still practice, no?
 

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Believe it or not, we are in an exempt tournament...we have to be because our schedule has 31 games. The NCAA only allows either 29 games or 27 games plus an exempt tournament of up to four games.
Ah! I misread WH's predictions and thought I saw 9-5 and 9-7, and I did the math and came up with 30. Oops.

The official UR schedule lists it as the "Nation of Coaches Classic", and it includes the UNCW, Hampton, Wofford, and Ohio games. But unlike most tournaments, there's no central site for even a part of it. And no marquee BCS teams in it.
I was aware of the Governor's classic but I didn't realize that it counted as an exempt tournament. All the better.
 

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Ah! I misread WH's predictions and thought I saw 9-5 and 9-7, and I did the math and came up with 30. Oops.



I was aware of the Governor's classic but I didn't realize that it counted as an exempt tournament. All the better.
Look at the teams listed, that isn't the Governor's classic.
 

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Not sure how UR can project any wins and losses yet for UR with the Ododa-Nelson situation ongoing. Losing a guy projected to be a key cog - not to mention the Spiders tallest starter would be a huge blow in playing tall, physical teams. Williams, though a force, is still only 6'6" at PF. Putting Piotrowski - tall, but skinny and still raw and likely to be overpowered inside - would be a change. I think UR would go to smaller, athletic 3 guard lineups to emphasize the strengths of the team with Williams playing center and Robbins sliding to PF, along with true freshmen Allen and Taylor. But that kind of lineup is really, really small and would likely get killed on the boards and the blocks by talented post players.
Factoring in that he was highest recruited of the newcomers and has been reported as the best performing player (not just newcomer) in a majority of the practices of the last year, creates an even larger disparity between predictions with or without him.
 
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