i don't know if i really like this draft pool in terms of talent that could complement what we do and don't already have, so i wouldn't mind learning more about this kid. first of all, i want to know whether he is truly the "best" player in his class- i don't really know what that means, but then again i do.
if he is, i wouldn't mind selecting him for that reason alone. i mean, i don't tend to simplify the values of these college/HS players, but being the top talent in your class is usually something important. sure, he might not be able to contribute right away, but we probably wouldn't be relying on that kind of an immediate contribution anyway. MLSE management, in that case, would have to determine approximately how far they're looking into the future. if we're trying to build a championship contender within the next three years and babcock expects it would take the raps exactly three years to develop a prodigy like green, it could make sense.
now, i've never seen him play for myself, so i think it would be kind of foolish to critique his game on the bases of nbadraft.net and draftcity.com scouting reports, but there are some other things that could certainly scare me away from gerald green. the first is his projected spot in the draft- why is he so low (relatively)? we've seen the top high schooler in america picked amongst the top 3 since ~ 2000 and green barely cracks the top 10. is it a weak year for HS talent? i don't know. have league GMs finally discounted the value of 18 year olds with "potential"? again, i don't know. are they so impressed with lebron james that they'd feel almost guilty by taking another HS talent in the same lottery ballpark? i doubt it but you never know.
or are the internet mock drafts simply inaccurate this year? i mean, the group of players who are expected to be available is more unknown than ever- with or without HS kids- and maybe we'll have to wait a couple of months before we really know who to identify as the diamonds of 2005 (as seen by nba teams).
still, i'm not necessarily averse to taking a high school player. he might fit in with our long term plan- or he might not. i'm sort of sick of the "he can jump out of the gym!" scouting reports, though. that doesn't mean very much in my world. for example, i personally don't think josh smith will become the star atlanta expects of him, and he may house the best athletic talents i have ever seen. this is basketball, not gymnastics, and selecting a kid without any college experience is risky enough; selecting him on the basis of what he can do on the trampoline or pommel horse is one of the more dangerous strategies for any general manager to follow (imo).
last thing: if i had to make a guess, i'd almost put money on this guy coming out this season. he's committed to oklahoma state of all schools, and eddie sutton's on the way out pretty soon. i don't know why any high school player, let alone the cream of the crop, would commit to ok st right now unless it were done to change his image in the eyes of professional GMs. i could be totally off-base here, in fact i probably am, but i wouldn't be surprised if green and his advisors had read how he was being perceived around the league (immature, etc.) and decided to commit to the college that could best change that image.
really, i can't justify a blue-chip prospect committing to oklahoma state for any other reason. i'd be surprised if coach (eddie) sutton stuck around beyond this year, and shocked beyond next season. i see green playing these market games in order to best prepare himself for a big day in june.
peace
