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Discussion Starter #1
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...NCAA-basketball-sophomore-breakout/index.html

This is my Breakout Sophomore Formula's fourth-annual attempt to use science, rather than subjectivity, to identify future stars who didn't stand out on traditional stat sheets. It has been mostly successful aside from a few absurd-and-unforeseen blind spots. (I'll explain those later.)

To fit the Breakout Formula, a player cannot have averaged much more than 20 minutes per game as a freshman. The selections need to have some degree of obscurity, and this filter removes too-obvious choices such as Gonzaga's Kevin Pangos and Oklahoma State's Le'Bryan Nash from the equation. The remaining candidates must have used possessions at a rate befitting a star -- at around 24 percent, or higher. The underlying theory of this, as first proposed by Basketball Prospectus, is that go-to-guys tend to act like it very early on, even when restricted to limited playing time. "Players who are not very involved in the offense," BP wrote, "tend to stay that way."
1. Treveon Graham, 6-5 SG, VCU

Freshman points per game: 7.0
Freshman minutes per game: 16.7
Percent of team possessions used: 24.2
Offensive Efficiency Rating: 102.5

There's a small risk in making Graham the headliner: Our background check revealed a proclivity for pantsing, but kept in moderation it should not hinder his breakout. His significant-usage (a team-high 24.2 percent), decent-efficiency (102.5 ORating) profile as a freshman who didn't turn 18 until October 2011 suggests immense potential. The departure of Bradford Burgess, who set the Division I record for career starts while playing the same oversized-wing position as Graham, should free up the minutes he needs to score in the mid-double digits as a sophomore. He was valuable to the Rams in a limited role as a freshman, drawing a team-high 6.0 fouls per 40 minutes and also crashing the glass surprisingly well (with an OReb% of 9.5) for a 6-foot-5 guard. Graham was recruited as a scorer, acted like a scorer off the bench, and there's no reason to believe he'll stop doing so when he's elevated into VCU's starting lineup.
3. Jerrell Wright, 6-8 PF, La Salle

Freshman points per game: 9.8
Freshman minutes per game: 19.8
Percent of team possessions used: 26.5
Offensive Efficiency Rating: 105.9

Before Wright played his first game for the Pioneers, coach/Dr. John Giannini said, "I think he's going to be one of the most productive players I've ever coached." Giannini only put Wright on the floor for 49.1 percent of the team's minutes as a freshman, but the product of Dobbins Tech (the same Philly high school that produced Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble) was exceptionally productive as a high-usage, efficient scorer. He also had the team's highest offensive rebounding percentage (13.0), second-best defensive rebounding percentage (19.9) and he drew the most fouls per 40 minutes (5.6). According to kenpom.com's similarity scores, the player whose freshman season Wright's most closely matched was J.J. Hickson's 2008 at NC State -- and Hickson jumped to the NBA straight after that. Wright has real star potential in the Atlantic 10.
 

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He'll join everyone on the Anthony Lee bandwagon soon.
 

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Great to be the unheralded soph, but I'll take the ROY every day of the week.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
That's an interesting discussion. Do you want the guy who has to be a go-to scorer and racks up nice stats on a .500 team or the guy who is a valuable role player behind your leading scorer on a strong NCAA team?

It's really hard to project how the players will end up when they start their careers in 2 very different situations. One thing is sure, all of these guys are damn good players for their age and should have nice careers at their respective schools.
 

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Great to be the unheralded soph, but I'll take the ROY every day of the week.
I was quite happy to have a sophomore led team last year. Breakout sophomores are very key players for teams, due to having actual college experience under their belt and the increased chance of helping out those incoming freshmen.
 

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The Rams didn't do half bad with a trio of sophmores providing plenty of minutes.
 

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I can't wait to see how Jerrell Wright does for the La Salle Pioneers (error now corrected in linked article) next season. There's also a zero percent chance that the author of this article watched a single minute of a La Salle game last season. How you can comment on Wright's potential productivity, without mentioning that he will draw consistent single defending because of the how perimeter based La Salle's offense runs is beyond me. Wright has fantastic potential and he's going to win some games this season entirely on his own. I'm not sure how many big guys in the conference can keep up with him as he's only going to get stronger and better. He just needs to work on his shot from the foul line since a hack-a-Wright strategy isn't the worst thought at the moment. If he can make a jump from 61% to 70%, he'll have a huge jump in scoring as he goes from being a freshman after-thought to a guy you run plays for on a regular basis.
 

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Jerrell Wright can ball. I really like his game and the Explorers this season.
Jerrell has worked on his FT shooting and has improved his overall ball-handling over the summer. He has the potential to be a great player starting this season.
 

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He'll join everyone on the Anthony Lee bandwagon soon.
JHG is a complete and utter homer. But he is right on this one. Anthony Lee is going to be better the Wright.
 

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JHG gets his panities in a bunch when Temple doesn't appear in the Top 10 of ESPN's weekly NFL Power Rankings, and can't believe Wyatt didn't get a seed at Wimbledon this year.
 

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JHG gets his panities in a bunch when Temple doesn't appear in the Top 10 of ESPN's weekly NFL Power Rankings, and can't believe Wyatt didn't get a seed at Wimbledon this year.
UMass recently fell to #2 on an ESPN top 10 list.


Wait...no. That was the Bottom 10 list. We fell from the worst team to the second worst team (thanks Colorado!).
 

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JHG is a complete and utter homer. But he is right on this one. Anthony Lee is going to be better the Wright.
Not so sure why you would be so confident about saying Lee is going to be than Wright. Maybe, maybe not. As a La Salle fan, I know I'm very happy that we have Jerrell Wright on our roster. He's going to be fun to watch the next 3 seasons.
 
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