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Player Salary Geek
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After thinking about the acquisition of Miles, it occurs to me that the Blazers could be looking in a couple of different directions in regards to a long-term plan. I've come up with a couple of scenarios:

A) The "do it all with youth" rebuild. Portland trades Person to Detroit in early February for Elden Campbell, Lindsey Hunter and Milwaukee's (protected) first round pick. The team allows the deals for Wallace and Hunter to come off the books this summer. Miles might be retained (since he qualifies as young) if the team can sign him to a reasonable deal. The team then adds either two or three first round draft picks and a couple of one-year contracts to fill roles. Next season, the team dangles Stoudamire and Davis for trades that will bring back draft picks. If they can't deal them, they let them both walk, as well as Stepania and Campbell. Perhaps they add a FA to go along with their (presumably high) draft pick and any other picks they are able to obtain.


B) The partial rebuild. The team allows Person's deal to expire, re-signs Wallace and Miles to reasonable deals and gets the two draft picks. In 2005, the team still allows Stoudamire and Davis to walk away, perhaps re-signs Stepania (depends on whether he improves or not), and adds their first round draft pick. By this point, the team will be in financial shape to add a decent MLE free agent as well.


C) No rebuild. The team re-signs Person (to a one year contract) as well as Wallace and Miles (to multi-year contracts) this summer. They get the two first round picks, thinking "future development" instead of "instant contributors". Also, use the full MLE for the best free agent possible. In 2005, the team tries to package their first round pick with Stoudamire for an upgrade at point guard. If they can't deal Stoudamire, perhaps package the pick with Davis. If no decent trade is available, let both Davis and Stoudamire walk away, re-sign Stepania and draft another player to develop. Again, use the full MLE to get the best player possible.


Of course, there are a myriad of options combining sections of these three options. The point is that Portland has some big choices to make as a franchise. Which is the best option? That's the question on the floor.

Personally, I like something close to B). It allows the team to add some young players while still remaining competitive. Some features of A) are appealing, though. I just don't see C) as I've portrayed it happening, at least not with Nash and Patterson in charge.
 

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None of those options sound very appealing, to tell you the truth.

I guess "B" would be the best. "C" is a doomed course of action, I think, because the PG position is too weak and the rest of the roster isn't good enough to make up for it anymore.

"A" is possible, but I think it depends on what they can get for Rasheed. If they can't get a quality prospect or high pick, they'll probably go with "B". If they CAN get one, "A" would make more sense.

As an aside: interesting that the Pistons released Hubert Davis. He was one of the expiring contracts that would have been attractive as filler for Rasheed, so him going to Detroit seems less likely now.

Ed O.
 

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A is not a good thing. Unless you have more solid vets on your team than youngins, you are in for a world of hurt as a fan. Has there ever been a young NBA team that was anything less than bad?

A modified version of B is what they should target. Of course, there are many variables involved that are unknown to plan on any particular event being a certainty. What if Sheed is offered a huge deal by another team? What is Miles is offered "too much" money? What if the Blazers miss the playoffs and improbably win the lottery? How will the FA market of 2005 play out? Will Damon and Dale be worth a lot in talent as ending contracts? etc. etc.

Note that Chauncey Billups was picked up by Detroit with a full MLE contract. Now he is one of the top 10 PGs in the NBA, and its biggerst bargain that is not on a rookie deal. If Portland is lucky they can pick up either a servicable post banger or PG with their MLE when the time comes.

If the Blazer's retain Sheed cheap enough, let Miles and Person walk and give away Anderson or Patterson for an ending contract, they could be in a good position for a marquee FA in 2005. Or if Sheed ends up walking, they can easily position to have MAX cap room in 2005.

The Blazer's really need to constantly monitor the T-Mac situation. The Blazer organization (and ownership) should do everything they can, short of tampering, to let T-Mac know he has a place to go if he can't see a future with the poorly managed Magic. The opportunity to make a run at a young top 5 player is very rare indeed. You don't pass that up when the team is own by a Billionaire who will back a Superstar led team, as opposed to a collection of overpaid average joes.

I have been plotting ways to get Gary Payton in P-Town for 5 years. That dream is dead and buried, even though it was so close this summer we could taste it. How close? Allen probably made his decision on a day the stock market was down. If the market had gone up that day, who knows?

I have been plotting ways to get Kevin Garnett in P-Town for 3 years. The Joe Smith fiasco and years of 1 and out in the playoffs were wearing on KG. There were those questioning how good he really was. But I knew better. Last seaon he was my pick as MVP. And this season he is even better with his new buddies. His huge contract cried out for a deep pockets owner. His huge personality (one of the best in the NBA) cried out for a big market (New York). I thought he deserved it. Instead, his owner made a renewed committment, his GM made some brilliant moves (Cassell, Spree) and got KG on board for an extension. That dream is dead.

Now, we must move on. Unless Orlando turns things around fast, T-Mac may be as obtainable to Portland as Gary Payton was. Don't give up after one call Nash. Keep up the pressure. Get in your batting stance and be ready to swing for the fences.
 

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Excellent post Masbee!! 5 * rating for you!

I have a wierd,fuzzy feeling about T-Mac and the possbility of him being obtainable. This is not a new feeling however. Your are right on, we need to put up a fight for McGrady as he seems(From an outside view) somewhat avalible if not via trade than through free agency by forcing a ST.
 

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Related question: What exactly is a "reasonable deal" for Miles. I know we haven't seen him play in a Portland uniform yet, but how much is he worth based on past play? You have to figure he won't go for less than his rookie contract ends at, so we're talking $5+ million per year to start out and probably a $6-7 million average. In other words, more than the MLE.

Is he worth that much? Unless he improves dramatically, I'd have to say no. Remember when we brought Ruben in for the MLE and the only concerns were his legal problems? I keep coming back to how misunderstood the rising salary scale is ... but, a couple years into his contract, suddenly everyone gripes about how vastly overpaid the guy is. Guess what, folks, that's how it works!

My guess is, Darius will never be better than Ruben, and will probably fill a similar role on the team. Is he worth more?

Dan
 

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I think we're heading to the free agency/draft arena and a long term plan.

1) Miles is leaving. He's not worth more than 4-5 million yet there are always going to be teams willing to overpay for his type of athleticism (listening, Cuban?). We're not going to match 7-8 million per year to sign a reserve player.

2) Wallace most likely will leave. He'd like to play in Philly and has turned down a lucrative extension. Maybe we can work a sign & trade, but why should he bother? I think resigning him or a sign & trade is the one key to our rebuilding project. If he walks away, we're DOA.

3) Person may stay. It's a nice city and with DA injured so much he knows his playing time is secure.

Also, we still have to carry Damon another year and that's going to really hurt us. Zach can't spell d-e-f-e-n-s-e let alone play it and most likely never will. Without Wallace to be our interior defense things will get much worse before they get better.

I used to think we were on a 3 year plan, but now I'm wondering if it isn't a 5 year plan. On the other hand, Allen may get sick & tired of all this losing and open up his checkbook again.
 

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Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
I used to think we were on a 3 year plan, but now I'm wondering if it isn't a 5 year plan. On the other hand, Allen may get sick & tired of all this losing and open up his checkbook again.
I just can't see Portland and Paul Allen being patient enough to wait 5 years or even 3 years to build a winner. I don't think Portland will start from scratch. I for one don't want to wait that long for Portland to be a winner. Maybe a year or two at most. I hope some moves are made to rebuild but not dismantle the entire team.
 

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Here We Go Again...

Originally posted by <b>BLAZER PROPHET</b>!
Zach can't spell d-e-f-e-n-s-e let alone play it and most likely never will. Without Wallace to be our interior defense things will get much worse before they get better.
Where do you come up this? Now that Jerm is gone, is Zach your new whipping boy? You ripped on Jerm or years, then ripped on 'Arogant Bob' for letting him go when it turned out you were dead wrong in your evalution of Jerm's talent.

Zach's 22. Please site the basis for your contention that he 'most likely' never will play defense. If it's based on your your ability to evaluate young talent, someone please pass the salt shaker.

Go Blazers
 

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I admit I was wrong on Jermaine. However, if you recall, I jumped on his bandwagon before the trade and openly disapproved of the trade.

And, I may also be wrong on Zach. Only time will tell.

My point is that we know we have a great defender in Wallace. He also can create his own shot- something Zach has yet to learn, but may very well learn.

My point is, and will be, that in the NBA a team HAS to have some good interior defense. Without Wallace, ours will suffer more then it is.
 

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Personally I would like to see plan B, but I am open to planc if the resignings aren't overwhelming.

The FA market is too huge of a gamble and with the Blazers throwing in the towell on overspending I doubt the draw is as nice to Portland.

BTW I think Mile and Patterson are roughly equall now, but with Patterson what you see is what you get. Miles is still raw and can develop more. I'd say if you can start him at $5mil he could be a very good pick up, or he at elast will be solid.
 

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Originally posted by <b>dkap</b>!
What exactly is a "reasonable deal" for Miles.
Just my 2 cents... but if the season ended today, I doubt that he could get more then a full MLE offer as most teams just don't have the capspace to offer more. Much like Rasheed, his value may be largely determined by what the market can bare, and it seems to be way down. Compared to other offseasons, Darius probably will be available relatively cheap.

To weigh in on SCBF's senerios... Scrapping the plan to be a player for UFAs in 2005 (plan C) might be the best way to go. Wallace and Darius may be able to be resigned (or S&Td) at reasonable rates (maybe 13-15 mil per combined), and then Damon and DD (with their 15 and 10 mil per expiring deals) could be dealt to teams wanting to clear cap space. Marbury was just landed essencially for capspace, so there might be some great players available. I'd imagine between Zach, Q, Darius, Outlaw, Nedzad, their three upcoming 1sts in the next two years, and whatever prospects that dealing Damon and Davis would yield, Portland could sufficiently load up their cubboards for 5 years down the line when Wallace, DA, and Rube are done with their respective careers. If the scouting department can be trusted to continue to do as good a job projecting talent as they've been doing in recent years under TB, I like those possibilities.

STOMP
 

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Originally posted by <b>STOMP</b>!


Just my 2 cents... but if the season ended today, I doubt that he could get more then a full MLE offer as most teams just don't have the capspace to offer more. Much like Rasheed, his value may be largely determined by what the market can bare, and it seems to be way down. Compared to other offseasons, Darius probably will be available relatively cheap.

To weigh in on SCBF's senerios... Scrapping the plan to be a player for UFAs in 2005 (plan C) might be the best way to go. Wallace and Darius may be able to be resigned (or S&Td) at reasonable rates (maybe 13-15 mil per combined), and then Damon and DD (with their 15 and 10 mil per expiring deals) could be dealt to teams wanting to clear cap space. Marbury was just landed essencially for capspace, so there might be some great players available. I'd imagine between Zach, Q, Darius, Outlaw, Nedzad, their three upcoming 1sts in the next two years, and whatever prospects that dealing Damon and Davis would yield, Portland could sufficiently load up their cubboards for 5 years down the line when Wallace, DA, and Rube are done with their respective careers. If the scouting department can be trusted to continue to do as good a job projecting talent as they've been doing in recent years under TB, I like those possibilities.

STOMP
I find it very interesting the deals that Nash is going for with his two trades. Send Bonzi to Memphis for Person (expiring contract) and a 1st round pick. Sent McInnis (Who they say the Blazers were going to waive during the summer) and Boumtje Boumtje to Cleveland for Miles (expiring contract). It would appear that Nash is stocking up for the 2005 free agent race to me.

I like what he is doing with the first two trades. He is slowly changing the face of the team and freeing up money in the process. The Cleveland trade now puts Portland in to first lien position when it comes to Darius Miles. Miles gets a 40 game tryout to see if he is what they really want. Smart move on Nash's part if Miles does work out, because Nash is in control of his address next season, not Miles. So there will be no bidding war if Miles does work out.

I am beginning to think that Wallace is staying put and Dale Davis could be the next Blazer to leave town. Seems that his rocky relationship with management is getting worse every day now. Dale could help an eastern team out. Detroit, New York, Atlanta might be interested in Dale, I just don't see them getting Wallace unless it is something real sweet and Ed O is sockless! :D
 

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Just to add a little more to my arguement on why Nash might eventually choose to abort the plan to add talent by empting the cubboards of assets and banking solely on the UFA route... why care how talent is obtained as long as you get it? Be it the draft, trading, making good MLE decisions, or persuing UFAs with max deals, I'll be the happiest when they win their last game in the playoffs. I doubt Paul is truely sweating his cash losses to the lux tax these last few seasons. It's been a lot of money, but it's been couch change compared to his overall worth.

If multiple teams are coming after a top tier free agent (like say McGrady), whats going to get him to choose Portland over bigger stages with much better endorsement opprotunities (or in Orlando's case, very low income taxes in his home town)? It might work out that a superstar type talent would want to sign with Portland over others with space (including the team with the Bird rights who can pay more), but it's far from a sure route to go. I'd probably rather trust the scouting department with multiple shots at selecting another diamond in the rough then to put all my hopes on a UFAs choosing Portland over the rest of the league.

If Nash were to choose to resign Sheed and Darius this offseason to contacts totalling about 15 mil per, Portland could still potencially have capspace to extend a max type offer in the following offseason. Adding that 15 mil on to hoopshype's figures...

http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm

... Portland would have about 37 mil committed to 10 guys, including the three firsts going into the 2005 offseason. With the cap at 43.8 this season, and having averaged going up 2-4 mil per year over the last 5 years or so, it seems reasonable to project that they could have at least an 8-12 mil per salary slot available if they chose to let Damon and DD walk without trading them to a team desperate for cap relief. The other reason to sign Sheed and Darius while the market is down, is because they should be very tradable from there on out.

BTW, I'm no capologist... I'm just dabbling, and may be wrong with how I'm adding things up. SCBF (and others) please feel free to weigh in and correct me.

STOMP
 

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I guess I am a bit dense Stomp... HH lists the Blazers at about $32 mil. for 2004/05. Plus they do no list DD either.

If you add the $15 mil you suggest for Darius and Sheed it takes it up to $47 mil + DD which should be about $10 so its about $57

Then add in a resigned Person at about $3-4 mil it makes it about $60-61 mil

add in 2x rookies and it might be $66 mil

If we somehow deal Damon it sheds almost $16 mil.. but we take back salary or if we are extremely lucky get Charlotte to take him

Its a big puzzle, but 2005/06 still looks like the big sweepstakes.


I am not sure Darius and Sheed will commend $15 mill myself. I feel Sheed will be $7.5-8 mil, and Darius should fetch about $3-4 mil simply becuase the former #3 pick is just not proven.. I would say maybe $10-11 mil for the 2
 

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Portland has next to no chance of getting below the cap this coming offseason. I'm projecting towards two offseasons from now. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

BTW- I'm hypothetically projecting Sheed + Darius at 15 mil per as I think those are towards the top end of what they might garner. I wanted to show what would be available to Nash even if he didn't lowball them in negotiations. I'm not adding in Person, because I'm not for resigning him past next season.

STOMP
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
OK, I've been thinking about this again tonight, and I am more convinced than ever that a "total rebuild" will take 4-5 years and I'm not sure that Paul Allen is willing to wait that long.

Remember, Portland's biggest asset over the last few years has been Allen's paycheck. Yes, he wants the payroll cut, but I see no indication that he's not willing to be in the top 10 or even top 5 payrolls in the league. We're talking $65 million or so - a big drop from last year's team salary (and thus more responsible fiscally) but still bigger than most teams.

With 3 big expiring contracts on the books (Wallace, Stoudamire and Davis) over the next two years - contracts that are very attractive to teams without a multi-billionaire owner - the choice facing the Blazers is to re-sign them, let them walk or trade them. I don't see Stoudamire or Davis being re-signed, but if Wallace is willing, why not?

I'm disregarding any PR or leadership issues here - that's another thread. But financially speaking, are the Blazers better off letting Rasheed go? To make a bid after FA's in 2005? Let me ask you - which big name FA would the Blazers target? Abdur-Rahim? Ray Allen? A player like Chandler or Battier (or any other player coming off their rookie contract) who's current team can simply match and retain them?

I hear a lot of talk about McGrady, but what indication is there that T-Mac will leave his hometown and opt out? He's only a FA if he exercised the player option in his deal. Sure, there's speculation, but nothing firm. So are the Blazers going to take a big drop in talent (by letting Sheed walk) just to take a "chance" that McGrady "might" opt out? Risky, risky, risky.

I guess what I'm saying is that this idea of getting below the cap to make a FA run in 2005 is a pretty speculative effort (just ask Chicago or Utah). Great, the Blazers could outbid any team with just the MLE. So, the Blazers would potentially get - at worst - a player like Bo Outlaw or Ervin Johnson. Yeah, that'd turn things around real fast. Meanwhile, the team lets players like Wallace and Miles walk away in order to play Free Agent Roulette.

I was over at O-Live for a few minutes tonight for my monthly visit. Someone over there posted a rumor of a trade with Chicago, saying that he heard it from his brother-in-law, the video coordinator for the Blazers, Bernard Smith.

Stepania+Outlaw+Woods+Patterson+D. Davis for Crawford+Curry+A. Davis

Now, given that this deal would leave Porland with 9 players, there's some doubt about it's reliability. And given Curry's rumored lack-of-effort/-of-work-ethic, I'm not sure that it's worth taking on Davis' terrible contract.

But the point is that there are a lot of teams "selling" right now. As long as Nash and Patterson hold onto their dream of getting a premiere, franchise player in free agency in 2005, Portland is one of those teams. But if they'd be willing to "buy", they could take advantage and potentially rebuild a lot quicker.

For example, if Portland were willing to give up some cap space at the end of the year, I believe they could trade Wesley Person to Detroit (who's looking for space in order to re-sign Okur) for Elden Campbell, Lindsey Hunter and Milwaukee's 1st round draft pick next year. Hunter's deal expires, Campbell's is over in 2005 and Portland either has another draft pick next year to take a player (or trade up with one or both of their existing picks) or another draft pick in a year or so (if Milwaukee tanks in the second half of the season).

Next year, they could take advantage of the expiring contracts of Davis and Stoudamire by trading them for semi-reasonable contracts and either young players or draft picks (or perhaps both). Let some other team play "free agent roulette" in 2005 - give them the expiring contracts so they can enter into the fray.
 

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I'm fine with keeping Crawford. He's got some serious talent and is realizing it.

But, to the main topic of this thread, I'm not entirely certain what I want, but I at least respect Nash for pursuing a consistant, coherent long-range plan: Youth, versatility and salary flexibility.

Randolph, Woods, Outlaw, Miles...all have youth and all but Randolph have some amount of versatility (potentially).

The Wells trade, while I didn't like it, clears cap room and provides another draft pick...more youth, more flexibility.

Wallace hasn't been dealt for crap or for bad contracts. That pleases me.
 

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judging by what I've seen so far, it looks like the team is somewhere between A and B.

at every turn since Patterson/Nash came on board, we've gone with youth and potential over experience. what we didn't do tells as much as what we did do:

• we didn't re-sign Pippen, Sabonis or Daniels

• we didn't trade Sabonis's expiring contract for a talented yet overpaid veteran

• we didn't sign Payton

• we didn't acquire any other free agents last summer, other than cheapy low-risk projects like Stepania

• we dumped Bonzi for (essentially) a draft pick

• we dumped McInnis for Miles

I think it's pretty clear that Patternash are trying to play "Trader Bob On The Cheap." accumulate a bunch of young, cheap, tradeable talent that sets you up for more trades down the road.
(our logjam at small forward (Wallace/Patterson/Woods/Miles) is reminiscent of our old log jams at power forward.)

I don't know if they have a clearer plan than just that. you can't make plans much more detailed when any of that young talent could explode at any point.

I doubt even Patterson and Nash know exactly how Wallace will be handled. he's the kind of guy that some team can come out of the blue on at the last minute in a desperate push to make noise in the playoffs.

it's really not too bad of a strategy, as long as you don't fall in love with all these youngsters and deem them untradeable. more than any time I can remember, NBA teams are now placing a real premium on young talent. 30 year old proven veterans who make $9 mil are out. 22 year old "upsides" on rookie contracts are in. the Blazer are just trying to maximize value on their team.

the most important issue the Blazers are facing is making sure that the Wallace situation results in a big payoff for the organization. if we lose him for nothing, we better have enough cap space out of it to make a successful free agent splash. if we trade him, it better be for real talent and not just a desperate PR ploy. if we re-sign him, it better be for reasonable money.
 

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If you just get four of the teams involved in the Sheed rumors, you could hammer out a deal that helps everyone.

Atlanta trades: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Dan Dickau
Atlanta receives: Dale Davis, Kurt Thomas

Chicago trades: Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Eddie Robinson, Antonio Davis
Chicago receives: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Dan Dickau, Keith Van Horn

Portland trades: Dale Davis, Rasheed Wallace
Portland receives: Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry, Eddie Robinson, Antonio Davis

New York trades: Keith Van Horn, Kurt Thomas
New York receives: Rasheed Wallace



Atlanta
C-Ratliff/Mohammed
PF-Thomas/Davis/Henderson
SF-Jackson/Crawford
SG-Diaw/Glover/Hansen
PF-Terry/Vaughn

--They clear cap space, with Dale's contract expiring, and Thomas is done after next year, so they get what they want.


Chicago
C-Chandler/Blount
PF-SAR/Williams/Fizer
SF-KVH/Pippen/Dupree
SG-Gill/Jeffries
PG-Hinrich/Dickau

IR:
Brunson

--I think they definitely get better because of this trade. An all-star frontcourt with a lot of offense, and Chandler in the back to block shots. They would be good.


Portland
C-Curry/Stepania
PF-Randolph/Davis
SF-Miles/Patterson/Robinson
SG-Anderson/Woods/Person
PG-Crawford/Stoudamire

IR:
Outlaw

--You don't cut any salaries, but you get a lot better. That would be a young, athletic team, with a lot of potential.


New York
C-Mutumbo/Doleac/Trybanski
PF-Harrington/Sweetney
SF-Wallace/Anderson
SG-Houston/Hardaway
PG-Marbury/Norris/Williams

--They get the guy they want. They don't want to give up KT and KVH, but they have to if they want Sheed.
 
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