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ST. JOSEPH'S - NONCON FORECAST

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#1 · (Edited)
ST. JOSEPH'S


W - NOV.12 YALE (Coaches vs. Cancer)
W - Nov. 16 vs Notre Dame C Cat Barclays Center)
W - Nov. 17 at BYU or Florida State (C v. C at Barclays Center)
W - NOV. 20 HARVARD
W- NOV. 28 AMERICAN
L - Dec. 1 at Creighton
W - Dec. 4 at Coppin State
W - Dec. 11 at Villanova
W- DEC. 22 FAIRFIELD
W - DEC. 28 IONA
L - Dec. 31 at Drexel
W - Jan. 5 at Morgan State
W- JAN. 19 PENN (PALESTRA)


NONCON FORECAST: 11-2

A-10 FORECAST: 11-5

OVERALL PREDICTION: 22-7.

I haven't taken a gamble on any skeds so far. SJU is my indulgence. I am perhaps a touch over aggressive here, but I like this team's makeup.

After opening with a win over a so-so Yale team, SJU gets a big ole fastball with storied Notre Dame (we older Northeastern Catholics understand). The energized Hawks hit it out of the park with a close upset win over the unsuspecting Irish, a terrific "team" deserving of a top 25 ranking to start the season.

SJU gets the winnner of BYU and Florida State. Hawks have more firepower and better guard play than either team, but both BYU and FSU are big and physical inside. I see Hawks making a national statement - backed by a lot of local support - with another win. The pair of wins is parlayed into a national ranking for the first time since the Nelson-West team, methinks.

The letdown could come at home vs Harvard a few days later. SJU has gotten better and Harvard noticeably worse compared to last season, when SJU lost a nailbiter in Boston to the Crimson. Somehow the Hawks find the energy.

After a week off, a refreshed Hawks avenge a loss at American last season. The win streak is stopped at Creighton, however, as the Doug McDermott-led Blujays get some revenge of their own after last year's loss on Hawk Hill. A-10 teams rarely fare well in games in Omaha and the Jays return almost all their key players from a 29-win team.

Coppin State is always pesky but simply too small. Hawks get back on winning track. They then head to Nova and hand the Wildcats the second of three losses to their Big 5 brethren in the A-10. SJU may be better at every spot on the floor.

Fairfield has a solid pair of senior guards but lots of unknowns. Iona is also resorting to a youth movement. SJU sweeps both home games.

Going to Drexel is usually a war and SJU alum (and former UMass coach) Bruiser Flint has perhaps his best team yet. Size, athleticism, shooting. Drexel won 29 games last year and is clearly the CAA favorite. They hold serve at home in a tight contest.

Morgan State took a big step back last year and the reason is simple. Talent. Todd Bozeman hasn't found as many diamonds in the rough lately. Hawks win handily.

SJU finishes its run with a late January win over Penn in a Big 5 game. Penn is stocking again after a 20-win season and probably won't be as good.
 
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