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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
This is a link to a fascintaing series of articles on the breakdown of player performance in the last 5 minutes of games. They use PER rating in the last 5 minutes minus opponents PER. Really a nice job by the guys at 82games.com

Here's a list of the top 25 final 5 minute performers when all calculations are done: PER is the player's own performance. dPER is the performance of the opposing players. For reference an average NBA player has PER of 15. So the higher the player;s PER the higher his overall production and the lower the dPER the better he his holding his opponent down

# PER dPER Diff +/- Rating
1 Ginobili
SAS
49.2 11.3 37.9 +9 39.0
2 Stoudemire
PHO
53.7 19.5 34.2 +16 36.2
3 Nash
PHO
55.1 23.8 31.3 +31 35.4
4 Wade
MIA
29.2 1.4 27.8 +79 33.7
5 Nowitzki
DAL
44.7 16.0 28.7 +43 32.3
6 Camby
DEN
31.8 3.9 27.9 +22 30.6
7 Griffin
MIN
35.6 15.8 19.8 +58 30.2
8 James
CLE
38.9 12.4 26.5 +13 27.8
9 Stackhouse
DAL
36.1 9.2 26.8 +5 27.6
10 Allen
SEA
31.8 10.0 21.7 +58 27.0
11 Gordon
CHI
34.1 10.1 24.0 +26 26.5
12 Terry
DAL
33.0 12.8 20.2 +52 26.2
13 Hughes
WAS
36.6 14.6 22.0 +42 25.7
14 Lewis
SEA
35.6 15.4 20.2 +59 25.4
15 O'Neal
IND
35.1 14.6 20.5 +18 22.6
16 O'Neal
MIA
26.0 9.7 16.3 +67 21.4
17 Daniels
SEA
30.5 16.6 13.9 +65 21.4
18 Kidd
NJN
35.8 18.9 17.0 +38 20.5
19 Tinsley
IND
22.4 7.9 14.5 +44 19.9
20 Ridnour
SEA
28.0 12.2 15.9 +22 19.2
21 Bryant
LAL
25.3 9.1 16.3 +34 19.0
22 Garnett
MIN
28.6 13.6 15.0 +55 18.6
23 Gooden
CLE
29.9 13.2 16.7 +12 18.3
24 Richardson
GSW
25.4 9.7 15.7 +31 18.0
25 Cassell
MIN
27.0 15.9 11.2 +42 17.1

clutch scorers
Part II
Overall
 

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Discussion Starter #2
I'm not surprised to see guys like Wade, Dirk, Lebron, and Gordon near the top
Little surprised by Manu being number 1 but I expected him to be up there. Good job by the Phoenix duo of Amare and Nash. Most surprising is seeing Griffin way ahead of Garnett.

I also like how the rating benefits good defenisve players both Wade and Camby really shot down opponents production. Wade opposing SG is being kept o a per of only 1.4 and Camby is keeping his opponent to a PER of only of 3.9

For reference an average NBA player has PER rating of 15
 

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Just another category to show why Dirk is definantly an MVP candidate this year. I'm not surprised he's top five in clutch stats, he always raises his game in the fourth. He's definantly one of the most clutch players in the league no doubt.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
My first link has analysis of scoring in the last 4 minutes. Don't know where to get a comparison of scoring in the entire 4th quarter
 

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I'ts an interesting idea, but still too team based. A (very good) player on a very good team is perhaps likelier to put up a better late PER, when a player with little around him will be get all the defense's focus. One might assume Ginobili is so high because he's benefiting from the defense focusing on Duncan. Also, better team defense surely affects opponents' PER.

The other thing is, this type of stat needs to be tracked over a course of years (they could calculate it for the last ten years, for example, to get that course of years), to see if players tend to maintain similar numbers from season to season. If there's high volatility, it's hard to call it an "ability," rather than just luck. If something is an ability, then players should consistently be good/bad/average at it...they shouldn't be excellent one year, poor another year, average another year, etc.
 

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I knew Tinsley was very clutch, but I'd still take Reggie over most of those guys, especially the way he's shooting this season.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Minstrel said:
I'ts an interesting idea, but still too team based. A (very good) player on a very good team is perhaps likelier to put up a better late PER, when a player with little around him will be get all the defense's focus. One might assume Ginobili is so high because he's benefiting from the defense focusing on Duncan. Also, better team defense surely affects opponents' PER.

The other thing is, this type of stat needs to be tracked over a course of years (they could calculate it for the last ten years, for example, to get that course of years), to see if players tend to maintain similar numbers from season to season. If there's high volatility, it's hard to call it an "ability," rather than just luck. If something is an ability, then players should consistently be good/bad/average at it...they shouldn't be excellent one year, poor another year, average another year, etc.
No doubt there is definite flaws as not too many players from bad teams are on there for example. But it brings some interesting thoughts to the table. While Ginobili certainly gets help from Duncan, Ginobili's ability to get to and make foul shots (a Duncan weakness), ability to create his own shot (he has a very low percentage of assisted shots), and defense makes him very valuable with the game winding down.

I also like the fact that there is a statiscal basis to end of game performance: for example Kobe and Tmac have had the most memorable 4th quarter performance. THis tends to overshadow other players who I've watched "step up" in the fourth on a less flashy but consistent basis not get credit.

The 82games.com are also running a three year analysis. Would be very interested to see how that turns out. If single season numbers match with the three year rankings it would help validate the measure
 

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Discussion Starter #9
PacersguyUSA said:
I knew Tinsley was very clutch, but I'd still take Reggie over most of those guys, especially the way he's shooting this season.
This is the problem with people's memory of "clutch" shots. While Reggie certainly has a history of hitting big shots, Tinsley brings a lot more then just shooting at the end of games to Indiana. He not only scores but his ability to create his own shot and the drive and dish are critical when baskets are hard to come buy
 

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If you're on a team that's always got a comfortable 4th quarter lead, I don't think you'd be trying as hard in the end. If you're always close or down, you would.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
sherwin said:
If you're on a team that's always got a comfortable 4th quarter lead, I don't think you'd be trying as hard in the end. If you're always close or down, you would.
The 82games.com statistics are based on the last 5 minutes of the 4 quarter or overtime when neither team is ahead by more then 5 points
 

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Pioneer10 said:
The 82games.com statistics are based on the last 5 minutes of the 4 quarter or overtime when neither team is ahead by more then 5 points
ok good.. I should have expected that from 82games.. masters of the stats
 

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#4: Dwyane Wade :yes:
 

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Mavs41 said:
Just another category to show why Dirk is definantly an MVP candidate this year. I'm not surprised he's top five in clutch stats, he always raises his game in the fourth. He's definantly one of the most clutch players in the league no doubt.
What's that say about Nash, or Amare, for that matter?
 

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Discussion Starter #18
underhill_101 said:
im surprised that ben gordon isnt a little higher and that camby is rated so high as a clutch player
Per ranking take into account assists, rebounds, to's etc.

Gordon in terms of pure points is actually like #2 in the clutch: see the first link in my original post

Camby is high because of his defensive abilities
 
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