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Discussion Starter #1
My question is regarding DWS ("Defensive Win Shares; an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense").

I was going through basketball-reference on this and comparing some players stats, and the results were interesting.

How many "weight" should we put on DWS while evaluating a player's defensive hability and comparing it to others (i know that it's a stat that can fluctuate due to games played (team or player)) and from different eras?

I confess knowing little about these advanced stats thingy, so i'm trying to not judge wrongly the results i got.

Can someone please imput?
 

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Discussion Starter #2
And btw, some of the results i got:

Player - CareerAverage - Best5Average

Bill Russell – 10,2 – 13,2
Wilt Chamberlain – 5,86 – 8,94
Hakeem Olajuwon – 5,25 – 7,74
Ben Wallace – 3,92 – 7,56
David Robinson – 5,72 – 7,12
Kareem A Jabbar – 4,73 – 7,12
Tim Duncan – 5,90 – 7,10
Dwight Howard – 5,89 – 6,92
John Havlicek – 4,6 – 6,40
Kevin Garnett – 4,91 – 6,32
Karl Malone – 4,86 – 6,04
Deke Mutombo – 3,43 – 5,84
Scottie Pippen – 3,90 - 5,78
Michael Jordan – 4,27 – 5,74
Walt Frazier – 3,42 – 5,66
Mark Eaton – 4,36 – 5,64
Dennis Rodman – 3,89 – 5,62
Ason Kidd – 3,44 – 5,48
Lebron James – 4,78 – 5,46
Snaq O’Meal – 3,16 – 5,36
Gary Payton – 2,72 – 4,30
Kobe Bryant – 2,93 – 4,16
Bruce Bowen – 2,32 – 4,08
Naurice cheeks – 2,66 – 4,0

I started looking upon the career leaders in DWS.

It’s a cumulative stat so, obviously, the more seasons you play and/or the more games you play, more career DWS you’ll get, so it’s not an accurate stat (player X played for 8 seasons, player Z played for 15 seasons).

I then averaged the DWS in that list by seasons played.

A little advance, but still not close to the results I was after, considering peak defensive production from players.

So I picked and averaged the 5 best seasons, DWS-related, per player I was interested in comparing.

Does this prove, say, Karl Malone's defense brought more wins to his team than, say, scottie Pippen? :groucho:
 

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I'd consider myself a statwhore and I don't put much weight into Win Shares at all.

It is mostly a box score summary stat. So for DWS, the more defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks you get, the better you're going to look in DWS. But there is obviously much more to defense than defensive stats.

DWS does try to take into account overall defensive performance by the team, such as looking at the opposing team's turnovers or missed FGs... but it distributes the credit for these things to ALL members of the team based on minutes played! That's a huge, huge flaw with the stat. So if you're a bad defender who NEGATIVELY impacts defense, but you played with an amazing defensive player like Russell or Hakeem, your DWS is going to look better because you're getting credit for things that should be attributed to Russell or Hakeem.

So great team defenders, especially ones such as Garnett and Pippen (who don't get as many blocks or steals as a Hakeem or Robinson, but are god-like team defenders who have amazing lateral defense, can cover large areas of the court, cut off penetration or passing lines, force the opposing team to take shots further from the basket, etc. - all of which don't show up in box score stats) are actually underrated by DWS.

It's even more problematic for the early 70s and 60s, because blocks and steals weren't recorded. So to calculate their DWS, they look at a player's rebounds and then use a regression based on the rebounds/blocks/steals of more modern players to estimate the blocks and steals of older players. Which leads to even more inaccurate results.

Of course OWS has similar problems (to a lesser extent).

I suppose DWS is a decent stat for looking at overall defensive box score value, but I would never use it to say Player A had 8 DWS and Player B had only 6, therefore A > B.
 

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watch what happens when a mediocre defender who has been playing on a team that loses a lot goes to a good team that wins a lot - has the quality of his defense changed?
 

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Restore the Roar
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watch what happens when a mediocre defender who has been playing on a team that loses a lot goes to a good team that wins a lot - has the quality of his defense changed?
Frequently - yes. Because there frequently a decline the other way as well. Players move to teams that aren't as good, and suddenly they aren't looked upon as the shut down defenders they once were. Look at all of the guys on that list - how many of those guys really spent a HUGE portion of their career on bad teams? Surrounded by bad players? One defensive player doesn't a team make. It makes a team better, but it isn't everything. All of the guys regarded high on the list played for a ton of very good teams because like it or not there is a mental edge that comes with playing for a very good team all the time. You get run down by losing, and your defense lapses. It takes a truly mentally powerful athlete to play at the highest defensive intensity amidst losing streaks all year long.
 

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nah, that's drtg - let's try again: ws of any kind is first and foremost dependent upon.....? (hint: it's in the actual title)
 

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Better Call Saul
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Defensive stats are retarded. It's not an aspect of the game that can be acurately depicted by numbers. I don't like stats in general but defense stats are by far the worst.
 
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