[Storyteller]

Chat with David Stern going on at ESPN.com

I found this dialogue interesting:

Rob (Portland, OR): Should NBA fans be worried about a pending lockout, or are you confident that a new CBA will be in place for next season?

NBA Comm. David Stern: (12:32 PM ET ) I am optimistic a new CBA will be in place. But it remains true that the only way to make a fair deal is to be prepared to make no deal. That said, we hope that the differences between us and the players will be sufficiently small and wisdom will prevail so we can make a deal prior to next season.

Not that I disagree with Stern, but it's his time frame that's interesting. No mention of getting a deal done before July (when the current CBA expires), but only a hope that a deal is done before next season. Perhaps Stern believes there will be a short lockout this summer?

I might very well be reading too much into his answer, but that's honestly the first thing that came to mind when I read it.

 

[Talkhard]

I'd love to see a lockout. It would give Telfair time to work on his jump shot.

 

[ProudBFan]

The Blazers have a (short) history of doing very well during lockout-shortened seasons, so I'm not too concerned about it either way.



PBF

 

[Dan]

I'd love to see a lockout. It would give Telfair time to work on his jump shot.

as long as the lockout happens after the draft and summer leagues (hopefully televised, or at least broadcasted on radio) I'll be happy.

 

[Blazer Ringbearer]

I don't know if the league could afford another lockout...

Seems like they're just starting to recover from the last one - does this give the players a little more leverage?

 

[Target]

Another lockout like the last one could ruin some of the owners.

I'm curious to see how the players react to such talk and I wonder how much solidarity there is in the large number of younger players. There is so many of them and so many that have succeeded they likely will have some influence in the players union.

 

[Storyteller]

as long as the lockout happens after the draft and summer leagues (hopefully televised, or at least broadcasted on radio) I'll be happy.

My guess is that things could go one of two ways.

In the first scenario, both sides agree to operate during an agreed upon length of time (2 months? Until November 1?) under the rules of the current CBA. Some things could move forward - scale contracts for rookies could be set, a new salary cap could be calculated, etc. This could probably only happen if negotiations looked like the new CBA would be 'close' to the current one. That is to say, if changes looked they would only affect issues such as the NBDL, age limits, length of contracts and not things such as % raises for rookies or the figures used to calculate the salary cap. In this case, summer leagues would probably look similar to how they've looked in recent years.

In the second scenario, the lockout would start in July. No new contracts, no trades. The summer leagues might continue for players without contracts who wanted to show their skills, but nobody like Outlaw or Khyrapa (who are already under contract and would thus be locked out) would be allowed to play. No drafted rookies would probably be allowed to play, either.

Now that's just my guess and I could be totally wrong. We'll probably get more 'details' as June 30th gets closer.

 

[Talkhard]

Another lockout like the last one could ruin some of the owners.

I'd say the players have more to lose. The average player probably has about 8 years to make his money, so every season counts. An owner, on the other hand, can make his money over 20 or 30 years. Not to mention the fact that most of the owners are fabulously wealthy, and will still be wealthy even if their team doesn't play for a year.

 

[Ed O]

I'd say the players have more to lose. The average player probably has about 8 years to make his money, so every season counts. An owner, on the other hand, can make his money over 20 or 30 years. Not to mention the fact that most of the owners are fabulously wealthy, and will still be wealthy even if their team doesn't play for a year.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the fixed (non-player) costs that NBA owners have to pay whether the games are played or not.

Many NBA owners lose money on a year-to-year basis, and own the team for the fun of it, for synergistic reasons, or for the long-term capital appreciation. They might be able to more easily withstand an extended work stoppage, but without knowing the basic financials it's hard to say.

Ed O.

 

[#10]

Rob (Portland, OR): Should NBA fans be worried about a pending lockout, or are you confident that a new CBA will be in place for next season?

NBA Comm. David Stern: (12:32 PM ET ) I am optimistic a new CBA will be in place. But it remains true that the only way to make a fair deal is to be prepared to make no deal. That said, we hope that the differences between us and the players will be sufficiently small and wisdom will prevail so we can make a deal prior to next season.

Just seems like he responded to the question, and Stern's answer doesn't mean a thing at all.

 

[Peaceman]

I listen to part of a interview on the "Dan Patrick Show" today, and Stern basicly said the same thing. The only specifics on the new CBA that he brought up, is stronger random drug testing policy and the age restriction. From what I understand they are looking reducing the max years of a contract to 5.
I think the owners should try and have a team option on year 3 on all contracts over four years and keep the max contract at 6 years.

 

[Nightfly]

I wouldn't mind seeing the Bird rights years come down to 2 instead of 3.

 

[Blazer Ringbearer]

With the owners/league, I was thinking of it more in terms of not being able to take another hit like that to the NBA brand...

I think with the loss of MJ and the last lockout the league took a huge hit in terms of overall popularity, losing a huge casual fan base... it seems like they are just starting to get that back with the Shaq/Kobe titles and drama, and the emergence of new stars like Duncan, Garnett, McGrady and with Lebron, Wade, and Amare hitting the scene hard.

I feel like another lockout would be a huge hit to that momentum. Perhaps the owners could take the initial monetary hit, but could they take losing half of their casual fans for the next 5 years?