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Discussion Starter #1
2018-19 Patriot League Men's Basketball Preseason Poll
1. Lehigh (7) -- 145
2. Bucknell (8) -- 140
3. Colgate (3) -- 130
4. Boston University (2) -- 121
5. Holy Cross -- 109
6. Army West Point -- 71
7. American -- 64
8. Navy -- 52
9. Lafayette -- 46
10. Loyola Maryland -- 22

Terriers are picked fourth in the league, but collect 2 first place votes.
Fourth is right about where I have them too. A bit surprised that Lehigh came in ahead of Bucknell.

Here's the full release: https://goterriers.com/news/2018/10/17/mens-basketball-collects-pair-of-first-place-votes-in-pl-preseason-poll.aspx
 

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Sounds about right I guess. I'm thinking Walter Whyte still may be injured, he's always in sweats on videos posted on twitter and has a boot on. His health might go a long ways to determining our results this year.

This was posted last week and you can see him with the boot on:
 

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Discussion Starter #3
That’s disappointing. There’s still a few weeks left until the season starts, and I really hope WW rounds into form. To me, he holds the key between a middle of the pack squad and one that pushes for the top spot. I believe he’s got the ability to make a John Holland-like leap between freshman and sophomore years (OK, maybe more of a Max Mahoney leap..)
 

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Oooof BU is ranked 7th by Ken Pom.

Full Rankings:

Lehigh 187
Colgate 205
Bucknell 206
Holy Cross 207
American 222
Army 223
BU 235
Navy 272
Lafayette 290
Loyola 298
 

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I'm an A-10 guy on post on that forum here.

But I'm in a season-long pool and picked American as a bargain team based on the fact that they've got TWO of the six guys named preseason PL all-conference/POY.

How can a team with 1/3 of the best six players in the league be projected 7th?
 

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I'm an A-10 guy on post on that forum here.

But I'm in a season-long pool and picked American as a bargain team based on the fact that they've got TWO of the six guys named preseason PL all-conference/POY.

How can a team with 1/3 of the best six players in the league be projected 7th?


Not sure what you are looking at, but American has one of the preseason All-PL players (Nelson). And they are likely projected for 7th based on the fact that they were the league's worst team by a wide margin last year. It will help if center Mark Gasperini, who missed all of last year with a concussion, is healthy - but moving up from 10th (a full three games out of 9th) to the first division would be an awfully big jump.

If you made your pick based on the faulty assumption that AU has two of the league's top six players, you may want to revise that pick.
 

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I don't think American is a bad team to choose as a sleeper but as Bison137 mentioned, there are reasons for concern. You have to wonder if Gasperini well truly be healthy and be playing at the same level as he previously did. Alexander is a solid freshman coming in with a good offer list but it's usually better to assume that Patriot League freshman players will probably be worse than replacement level overall. Iorio is another nice piece at forward. Besides that, there is honestly a lot of sub-D1 level talent on their roster. Injuries would devastate them in my opinion.
 

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Yeah, I probably misread the story I was reading and thought Gasperini or Sam Iorio were also All-Conference picks.


I was scouring for some "value picks" in this season long pool. It's a really cool deal... you have 100 points to pick 11 teams - one from each of the six BCS conferences and five others. Each team is assigned a value between 5 and 17, and you get points for each win your teams get (1 pt OOC, 2 pt Conf; conference season/tournament bonus, NCAA Tourney seed bonus, NCAA Tourney wins escalate in points).


Nelson and my misread wasn’t the ONLY reason I picked them. Really I picked them because “out of 53 teams that only cost 5 points, I liked their upside the most…”

Gasperini, Iorio, a few other returning rotation players.

Ken Pom had them at 222 in his preseason ranking, which is like 100 spots higher than most the other teams given a 5 point values. The second-best Ken Pom ranking in the PL is 205, so if it’s a tightly-bunched conference and American can slide up a few spots…

Not "upper tier of the PL" but "6 or 7 PL wins instead of 3."

10-point teams average 32 points in the pool, and 11-point teams average 36 points.
I think Gonzaga (16) is going to get 65+ points by themselves, so if American can get me 5+ conference wins I come out ahead. (Yes, I spent waaaaaay too much time on this figuring out the “game theory” strategy of this pool).

Anyway, have fun this season. May you knock off as many members of the BCS cartel as possible.


(Also, what’s the general thought process of the PL possibly inviting Fordham?)
 

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Yeah, I probably misread the story I was reading and thought Gasperini or Sam Iorio were also All-Conference picks.


I was scouring for some "value picks" in this season long pool. It's a really cool deal... you have 100 points to pick 11 teams - one from each of the six BCS conferences and five others. Each team is assigned a value between 5 and 17, and you get points for each win your teams get (1 pt OOC, 2 pt Conf; conference season/tournament bonus, NCAA Tourney seed bonus, NCAA Tourney wins escalate in points).


Nelson and my misread wasn’t the ONLY reason I picked them. Really I picked them because “out of 53 teams that only cost 5 points, I liked their upside the most…”

Gasperini, Iorio, a few other returning rotation players.

Ken Pom had them at 222 in his preseason ranking, which is like 100 spots higher than most the other teams given a 5 point values. The second-best Ken Pom ranking in the PL is 205, so if it’s a tightly-bunched conference and American can slide up a few spots…

Not "upper tier of the PL" but "6 or 7 PL wins instead of 3."

10-point teams average 32 points in the pool, and 11-point teams average 36 points.
I think Gonzaga (16) is going to get 65+ points by themselves, so if American can get me 5+ conference wins I come out ahead. (Yes, I spent waaaaaay too much time on this figuring out the “game theory” strategy of this pool).

Anyway, have fun this season. May you knock off as many members of the BCS cartel as possible.


(Also, what’s the general thought process of the PL possibly inviting Fordham?)
As someone who actually watches AU, unlike the "experts" here, I can tell you that you're not wrong to believe AU is ripe for a significant improvement this season. Iorio wasn't preseason second team all PL, but he was all rookie last season and will certainly be in the mix for an all-PL team this year. Frankly, I don't think Sa'eed should have been preseason POTY, but he's definitely a first-teamer. Not only is Gasperini, another all-rookie player (2017) back, but so is Yilret Yiljep, a 6-7 big who missed the last three seasons with a heart condition that has finally been fixed. As mentioned, Alexander is yet another big with potential who wasn't on the roster last season. (By way of comparison: our starting centers for almost all of last season were a 178-pound freshman and...Iorio, who's a 3/2. We had six different players miss at least one game with concussions--most notably, Gasperini, who missed the entire season.) In addition, AU will have another incoming freshman in Jacob Boonyasith, who broke his high school's 42-year-old scoring record last year. We had six freshmen last season, all of whom played; five are returning, with Marvin Bragg and Stacey Beckton most likely to see significant playing time along with Iorio. Larry Motuzis returns for his senior season at the two after transitioning from NAIA last season. KenPom has us ranked fifth in the PL in his preseason ranking, and I think that's about right. The PL 7th place prediction was, IMHO, way wrong, and a significant outlier from recent PL history; the preseason player of the year's team has been fourth or higher in the preseason poll in 14 of the last 15 years.
 

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No poster said that American isn't ripe for a significant improvement. If you took the time to read the posts, you would see everyone IS predicting a significant improvement.
 

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No poster said that American isn't ripe for a significant improvement. If you took the time to read the posts, you would see everyone IS predicting a significant improvement.
And if you bothered to read my post, you would see the qualifying phrase "As someone who actually watches AU, unlike the other 'experts' here..." I never said you didn't predict improvement; I said you and the others don't watch AU on a regular basis, as I do. As such, I listed specific reasons why I agreed with the poster that he/she was correct to believe AU could be significantly improved this season.
 

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And if you bothered to read my post, you would see the qualifying phrase "As someone who actually watches AU, unlike the other 'experts' here..." I never said you didn't predict improvement; I said you and the others don't watch AU on a regular basis, as I do. As such, I listed specific reasons why I agreed with the poster that he/she was correct to believe AU could be significantly improved this season.
Your first sentence was unnecessarily condescending.
 

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I think you are letting your passion for AU blind you from seeing that the AU roster has serious question marks to the point of touting the impact that a freshman with one other D1 offer is going to make. Lots of other teams had good recruiting classes; some even had better recruiting classes than AU.

AU will have some new faces and returning old faces that give them more potential this year but they will have to improve in many facets of the game given that they were ranked 328th in efficiency by KenPom last year.
 

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I think you are letting your passion for AU blind you from seeing that the AU roster has serious question marks to the point of touting the impact that a freshman with one other D1 offer is going to make. Lots of other teams had good recruiting classes; some even had better recruiting classes than AU.

AU will have some new faces and returning old faces that give them more potential this year but they will have to improve in many facets of the game given that they were ranked 328th in efficiency by KenPom last year.
So...the team with "sub-D1 talent," as you put it, and "serious question marks" on its roster just beat BU a third straight time, putting up 86.

Either our "sub-D1 talent" is better than you so condescendingly referred to it before the season...or your "D-1 talent" isn't.

And-no snark-congrats on the win over Bucknell today. I think BU has a lot of young and emerging talent that could turn into something by season's end. So do we.
 

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I think you are letting your passion for AU blind you from seeing that the AU roster has serious question marks to the point of touting the impact that a freshman with one other D1 offer is going to make. Lots of other teams had good recruiting classes; some even had better recruiting classes than AU.

AU will have some new faces and returning old faces that give them more potential this year but they will have to improve in many facets of the game given that they were ranked 328th in efficiency by KenPom last year.

They're doing the job for me so far. Up to 197 in adjusted efficiency entering today's game against Bucknell (which is tied with 2:30 to go).
 

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Discussion Starter #20
I’m no talent scout but Sa’eed Nelson could have beat us if he was playing with the Seven Dwarfs. Dude was unstoppable.
 
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