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The league has had a solid ooc season this year. Quality wins will be on the table, but they will be tough to get. Looking at the rosters of the teams that have done well so far, the Dukes, George Mason, Richmond, St. Louis, and Bona have no seniors in the starting lineup, and many of the other squads only have one. You know VCU, Davidson, and Dayton will still be tough. This league will be a bear next year. Five bids are a possibility.
 

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The real big bummer is that the Bonnies lost 4 games without Ossunyi, and are 7-0 with him; the A-10's OOC win percentage could be .692 with 8 NCAA candidates (plus Davidson) if he didn't fall down go boom vs Ohio.
 

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I'll go with the average, 3 bids. More bids would surprise me and less not as much as those in charge don't like the A10. Just ask the Bonnies how fair is selection Sunday.

There is a thin line in these groupings and will say, not following closely any A10 teams.
With top 2 and one from the next grouping for 3 bids.

St Louis
Dayton

Dukes
Bonnies
VCU
Davidson
GM
Richmond

URI
UMass
GW
St Joe

LaSalle
Fordham
 

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I'd definitely swap VCU and SLU. There's an issue at play with teams like SLU, Mason, Duquesne and Richmond. We've seen too many times those guys start strong and then get to conference play and finish like 10-8 to 8-10. Last year, Mason was picked Top 5 in the preseason poll and where'd they finish? Every year, it's "The Duquesne revival takes a leap forward" and they remain in the "strong OOC, middle pack A-10 team" range.

I'd have the A-10 tiers as:

Tier1: Dayton (5/6 seed), VCU (8/9 seed) -- you know they'll get 7 and 10 seeds, BTW

Tier2A: Good teams, good record, but you're not sure how much you trust them: SLU, Richmond, Mason, Duquesne. I wouldn't be surprised if they went 14-4 in the A-10. But I also wouldn't be surprised if one or three ended up 9-9 to 7-11

Tier2B: The inverse of 2A: Good teams, you'd trust: Davidson, Bona, URI. But DC and Bona have lesser records than what an at-large contender should have because DC lost to Charlotte/Wake; Bona was missing Osunyi. URI's where you'd expect them to be.

Tier 3: LaSalle

Tier 4: UMass, GW, Fordham, St. Joe's

The reality of this is we need Tier 4 to ONLY beat each other.
 

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Also, it was lovely to see Dayton drop 2 spots in the polls for.... being off (or beating Grambling by 28).

Zero regulation losses. OT Losses to teams ranked 3 and 26 (both neutral site). They PUMMELED 32 and 40 in this week's poll (and SMC is tragically underrated as well).
 

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Yeah, I can see that. Looking at their resume, I was like "Whoa, I thought they were supposed to be down!" I think we just get used to 2-3 years of good, then rebuild.
 

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Antwan Walker (the Georgetown transfer) has been the real deal in his 2 games since eligible. Big playmaking ability and 10-13 shooting for 21 points so far in 33 minutes of action.

However, Dana Tate has been suspended since the WVU game and now he will be transferring. So Rhody is left with essentially an 8-man team the rest of the way. I would battle anyone with these guys but our depth is fragile in the event of an injury or a game with players in foul trouble.
 

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Antwan Walker (the Georgetown transfer) has been the real deal in his 2 games since eligible. Big playmaking ability and 10-13 shooting for 21 points so far in 33 minutes of action.

However, Dana Tate has been suspended since the WVU game and now he will be transferring. So Rhody is left with essentially an 8-man team the rest of the way. I would battle anyone with these guys but our depth is fragile in the event of an injury or a game with players in foul trouble.
Fordham is 11 deep. Unfortunately we have at most one player that would start on another A10 team. Depth can be overrated.
 

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And just so we're clear, on my list of teams, I didn't mean Tier 2A was better than 2B. They're all mixed together, but they're two categories of teams, you dig?
 

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Also, it was lovely to see Dayton drop 2 spots in the polls for.... being off (or beating Grambling by 28).

Zero regulation losses. OT Losses to teams ranked 3 and 26 (both neutral site). They PUMMELED 32 and 40 in this week's poll (and SMC is tragically underrated as well).
It's also indicative of how the pollsters view the A-10. Of course the last set of ooc games didn't help the perception of the conference.
 

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If you're sleeping on URI you're going to get a reality check soon. They lost a neutral game to LSU, and @ MD, @ WVU, and those two are very good teams. They're winning the games they're supposed to. They do have VCU and UD twice each, but I don't see how they don't finish top 4.
 

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Can't really argue with it too much. Although, I'm not sure why he had to put down Rutgers (NET 31, RPI 33, Kenpom 48) as being our best win.
Because Rutgers is that high because the Big Ten has mastered manipulating the math via buy games. Rutgers isn't that good. They're going to finish 10th or 11th in the Big Ten and finish 17-16 (probably like 18-17 after they buy games in the CBI or CIT).
 
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