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Discussion Starter #1
Meet the Joker .

His name is Jerry West and quite conceivably he will have the biggest impact on this draft after Houston , Chicago and Golden State take Yao, Jay and Mike Jr respectively.

In theory the mooted Clips/Grizzlies deal has some legs .

Consider this :

Memphis has a 10 man $52M payroll before they add say another $2M to bring back Buford, Fotsis and Solomon + this years 2nd round pick . They then have their current #4 pick at $2.5M that would take them to..uh oh ...$56.5M for a full roster .

That's around $4.5M to $5M Jerry West needs to trim off his roster

It therefore makes sense for him to try and manipulate the draft in a variety of ways .

For example, he allegedly likes Jared Jefferies . I'm sure he thinks he is a fine player but it is just a bit convenient that Jared at #8 say will cost close to a $1M less than what Drew Gooden would at 4 .

There is $1M of the $4.5M he needs to trim.

If the mooted Clippers / Grizzlies deal goes through at #4 for #8 and #12 it may be on the understanding from Jerry West that the Clippers intend taking Nicoloz Skitishvilli at #4 which means that it is curtains for either one of Lamar Odom or Darius Miles in Clipperville. It would be further in the knowledge that the Clippers intend to move Lamar Odom for Andre Miller which
leaves the Cavs short a starting point guard.

A Clips / Cavs deal could then look like :

Odom and the rights to #12 for Andre Miller and Bryant Stith

The whole idea of the draft flow from this point foward for Jerry West is to bank on natural attrition keeping Jefferies , Hilario, Wilcox and Gooden from Phoenix's grasp at #9 .

This would mean that the latter 3 go to Denver, Cleveland and New York in any order - although it would make most sense for Denver with McDyess and Howard on board, and retention issues unanswered, to make a safe political play and pick up
Maybyner Hilario who is a C/PF combo player - but probably more of a Center than a PF in the traditional sense - possibly one of the league's outstanding defenders in a few seasons time.

This puts Gooden at #6 which makes sense for Cleveland with his versatility on the forward line albeit he is a genuine 4 player. This also allows Mihm to rotate at PF/C -the latter position being where the jury is still out on Illgauskas's health and Diop's
capability in making it as an NBA player. Gooden gives them surety . Its the safe bet for Cleveland.

That leaves Wilcox at #7 for New York who have lusted for
a true power player upfront for a long long time.

Jerry West takes Jared Jeffries at #8 for aforementioned salary cap reasons but also predicated upon the fact that he really likes the kid.

Phoenix are now on the clock .....

Borchardt , Stoudemire or....Stromile Swift

Tick. Tick. Tick .

Phoenix have 11 players at $51M next season if you take into account the option they pick up on Jake Voshkul and Milt Palacio and a 2nd round pick to replace Alton Ford.

Stromile Swift becomes a lot more attractive to Phoenix as their power forward if Phoenix can dump salary of $4M comprising Palacio , Voskhul and Randy Brown ( 1 year left on contract of $2.7M ) to the Hornets .

To take Stromile Swift and dump $4M in salary ( $1.3M they could do off their own accord by not picking up options on Palacio and Voshkul but packaged with Brown at $2.3M to get a deal done on the basis that no one would take Brown on his own in a dump ) Phoenix would give up the rights to the #9 pick to Memphis which it probably cannot afford anyway if it plans missing the luxury tax .

Phoenix then have 10 players ( now including Stromile and their #22 pick ) that would be at approximately $51M. They would basically have to sign 4 or 5 guys to the league minimum on non guaranteed contracts that would put their payroll at around $53M for 14 guys – and if worse came to worse and they had to dodge the luxury tax – they would have to consider dealing Joe Johnson for a 1st round pick next year by trade deadline half way through the season to get back under the $52M mark ( again on the assumption that the luxury tax limit will be around this level ) . Alternatively , they could draft one of the Euros at #22 and keep him over in Europe for a season or two until the payroll is in better order.) This would take pressure off to deal Joe Johnson by freeing up around $800K in salary to spread it around to fill the roster – yet still retain the draft rights of the guy you want at #22 .

The bottom line is Phoenix cannot afford to draft Borchardt or Stoudemire and do nothing to clear space.. Borchardt or Stoudemire would cost around $1.5M each compared to Swift's $3.5M - but with Brown and others ( with either Borchardt or Stoudemire ) the overall cost is $5.5M. With Swift - and Brown and others gone - the cost is $3.5M

Its a deal for the Suns to make based on Economic rationalism as it is for the Grizzlies who shave the $4.5M off their payroll they need to by trading down for Jeffries and manipulating the draft flow as best they can by denying Phoenix and giving them a choice of Borchardt , Stoudemire or Swift- for the #9 pick with the leverage on Swift being Phoenix's guy based on a necessary business decision.

Here is where Chicago and Jerry West's old mate Jerry Krause come in to finish off the facilitation of this deal with its cap space and cheap role players.

We send a 2nd round pick to the Grizzlies ( #44 ) in consideration of Swift's $3.5M per going to the Suns- which cleanses around $3.5M off the Grizzlies salary - on the basis that the Grizzlies do not necessarily sign that pick ( or they may to round out their roster if thet like who is there ) - in addition to the $1M they have already saved in trading down for Jared Jeffries

The Suns ship $4.0M off to the Hornets in expiring contract Randy Brown and back up point guard help in Milt Palacio and front court hustle on Jale Voshkul . The Bulls ship the $3M contract of Marcus Fizer's off to the Hornets as well.

The Hornets send PJ Brown to the Bulls which has a neutral effect on the Hornets cap position with PJ costing $7M per .


THE END RESULTS ?

Jerry West wins by getting his man in Jared Jeffries at #8 and converting Stromile Swift into a #9 pick , by influencing the draft order if he is of the belief that the Clippers would take Tskitishvilli and trade Odom and #12 for Andre Miller and Bryant Stith ( expiring contract ) Whilst he would have cleared the $4.5M in the Swift trade and Jeffries signing he could trade down to get Dickau , Welsch or Frank Williams . Frank Williams would appear to be a good fit on a trade down – as insurance that a competent point guard is on the roster should Jerry West ever be able to deal White Cocoa. The other alternative is to trade the expiring contract of Tony Massenberg which equals the cost of a signed #9 pick – and just pick the best player on the board at either guard or Center. Given Lo Wright is a banger – a good contrast may be to go for a Raef LaFrentz type in Curtis Borchardt , or Caron Butler may get a look in here. Either way the luxury tax is avoided.

Clips get A.Miller and Tskitsihvilli and ending contract in Stith as a Cav luxury tax dodge before they have to pay Dre and Elton. They give up Lamar Odom , the #8 ( to Memphis ) and #12 ( to the Cavs )

Phoenix avoid severe luxury tax penalties and the price is being
"rationalised" into Stromile Swift as their PF ( whose option next summer can always be passed on if things don't work out this year ) in addition to losing two bit role players Palacio and Voshkul to be packaged with Randy Brown to clear room. The cost ? Their #9 pick that they really can’t afford anyway .Hey it hurts.... but I predict that if you don't have draft position to dictate the flow and ugly contracts that have you with 9 or 10men sailing close to the luxury tax edge and your draft pick is not sexy in terms of where your positional need is ...... then a team like Phoenix are in danger of copping a rogering.

One could even argue that this scenario for Phoenix is a bit like a Grizzly/Bulls/Hornets led conspiracy .

The Hornets get back point guard help in Palacio and front court t help in Marcus Fizer and Jake Voshkul . They give up PJ Brown and eat the contract of Randy Brown for a year at $2.7M ( who they could always negotiate to try an buy out )

The Cavs round out a pretty good draft day by getting Drew Gooden, Lamar Odom and Dejuan Wagner

At the #12 pick they get from the Clips in the A.Miller/Odom trade , if he drops this far which he may , the Cavs would tab Dejuan Wagner or if he is off the board , they may trade down a few spots and take Frank Williams or Dan Dickau.

But the Cavs lose Andre Miller, Bryant Stith , and later
pass on qualifying offers to Michael Doleac and Brian Skinner and not picking up the team option on Jeff Trepagnier . This would put their salary situation at around $47M for 11 players before they made a qualifying offer to Ricky at up to $4M if necessary with the remaining $1M to be split between 2 - 3 players that get picked up in the 2nd round or for the minimum. Once again , another team flirting with the luxury tax limit but perhaps narrowly avoiding it.

The Hornets and the Bulls facilitate Jerry West's strategy in giving the Colangelos something to think about in taking Stromile and dumping Randy, Milt and Jake to avoid the luxury tax.

From the Bulls perspective all we give up is the rights to our #44 to Memphis and Marcus Fizer and get PJ Brown in the process

Deal me in for this ?

You bet.
 

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wow this was enjoyable to read, but how long did that take you to right???:confused:
 

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Originally posted by Johnjo
wow this was enjoyable to read, but how long did that take you to right???:confused:
:laugh: Come to expect this from FJ quite often! The man from down under is one of our thinkers! He is quite thorough and puts a lot of thought into his posts. We have some others on here, who do the same! This isnt hoopsworld and i dont mean that as a slam because i check in there once in a while.
 

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MY GOD!!!

Originally posted by Sicky Dimpkins
I have a headache. :upset:

FJ is smart.
Sicky is sick.
There is very little similarity.

I got the part about the Bull getting PJ for Fizzer(FJ is the creator of this) and the 44 and this makes me :) .

Cleveland taking a 4 seems as safe a guess as there is.

The rest is confusion.

P.S.:
Uncle FJ can you trade Fizzer so the Bull can get Gooden and Arenas and I can experience a basketball"gasm"? If anyone can it's you but if not I'll understand and be content with PJ. :D
sicky, you beat me to the advil....man, I have to agree, THAT was a LOAD!!! IT would have taken ME six years come sunday to have come up with that one! ...........hahaha... It really kinda scares me that this scenario could actually happen! We should only have been SO lucky to have Mr West in Chicago. Anyone here think Mr Krause is truly the "sleuth?".....or the "deusch?"
 

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Very creative FJ and well done. It would be a good situation for us. The only thing that may be off (which doesn't necessarily effect the deal) is that Big Country salary may not count against the cap next year as he is retired for medical reasons. I don't know the exact status and Memphis would have had to apply in a timely fashion for the exemption.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
No Sicky

Its a neutral exercise for the Hornets who clear $7M in PJ and get Fizer, Jake, Milt and Randy Brown that totals $7M

Jake, Milt and Randy are all expiring contracts

Their payroll would increase marginally being the differential between the #17 rookie salary being cheaper than Courtney's 3rd year #10 pick salary - but the Hornets are in no danger of luxury tax land


Song,

Yeah you are right about Country in it impact it could have - but why would Memphis not have already fixed this exemption up. Country is still listed as counting in Hoopshype and RealGM :confused:
 

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Good question FJ, it could be the exemption was not in place for this year and likely wasn't. I don't know when a team needs to apply. It is possible Memphis went on the cheap here, though insurance is usually in place to cover disability up to about 80%. I can't speak for Hoopshype, though DB7 alluded once in RealGM that they got their numbers from RealGM. I don't know how often RealGM updates or if they got a little lazy when they stopped showing full salaries. I still like the trade.
 

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why not KThomas?

This trade would also address our need for a vet PF/C to back-up and mentor Curry & Chandler. KThomas is a player who's tough, experienced, and an intimidator who will protect our kids from the thugz in the league the way Oakley did this past season (sort of).

Chicago trades: PF Marcus Fizer (12.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 apg in 25.8 minutes)
C Dalibor Bagaric (3.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.5 apg in 12.8 minutes)
PG AJ Guyton (5.4 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.8 apg in 13.5 minutes)
Chicago receives: PF Kurt Thomas (13.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.1 apg in 33.8 minutes)
Change in team outlook: -7.5 ppg, -0.7 rpg, and -2.8 apg.

New York trades: PF Kurt Thomas (13.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.1 apg in 33.8 minutes)
New York receives: PF Marcus Fizer (12.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 apg in 76 games)
C Dalibor Bagaric (3.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.5 apg in 50 games)
PG AJ Guyton (5.4 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 1.8 apg in 45 games)
Change in team outlook: +7.5 ppg, +0.7 rpg, and +2.8 apg.

TRADE ACCEPTED

AJ would be a sign and trade type deal; NY gets an up a coming PF in Fizer and a big body at C in Dali, plus a good shooter on the outside in AJ. To me this trade makes sense - especially if you figure MFizer will leave the Bulls anyway down the road to escape the shadow of Chandler. Thomas is a great value as well:

02-03 $4,903,750
03-04 $5,394,125
04-05 $5,884,500

Thoughts??
 

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Just not sure...

I do not care for pj brown, I think he is an underachiever. Just My humble opinion. I do not care for kurt thomas, I think he looks like he is on something. His game is okay, but not really consistent. I am nearly happy with ANY trade scenario that gets rid of Bagashe-it! AJ Guyton, hmph, just not what I thought he was gonna be. not a point guard, not a scoring guard. I still say, lets package some 2nd rd picks and bench players for swift of the grizzlies. :grinning:
 
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