Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

1 - 19 of 19 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,554 Posts
Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
After a comment about Charlotte's OOC SOS on another thread, I decided to look at what teams need to have an RPI in the 40s. Yes, this is early and a lot of conjecture but...
Here is the way it looks from RPIForecast. (I couldn't get the bottom 4 that high)
Records are Current/Future/Total

Team W L W L W L RPI SOS
sju 7 4 14 4 21 8 42 101
cc 12 2 11 5 23 7 42 120
vcu 11 3 10 7 21 10 43 48
lsu 9 3 12 5 21 8 44 116
slu 10 3 12 5 22 8 45 81
ur 10 5 11 5 21 10 46 70
tu 10 2 10 8 20 10 47 55
um 9 3 12 5 21 8 47 98
ud 9 4 13 4 22 8 47 92
xu 7 6 13 4 20 10 47 54
bu 10 2 10 8 20 10 49 66
sbu 7 5 13 4 20 9 49 103
gw 6 6 14 3 20 9 62 108
du 7 7 11 5 18 12 67 80
uri 4 8 13 4 17 12 76 62
fu 4 10 8 9 12 19 152 79
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,161 Posts
After a comment about Charlotte's OOC SOS on another thread, I decided to look at what teams need to have an RPI in the 40s. Yes, this is early and a lot of conjecture but...
Here is the way it looks from RPIForecast. (I couldn't get the bottom 4 that high)
Records are Current/Future/Total

Team W L W L W L RPI SOS
sju 7 4 14 4 21 8 42 101
cc 12 2 11 5 23 7 42 120
vcu 11 3 10 7 21 10 43 48
lsu 9 3 12 5 21 8 44 116
slu 10 3 12 5 22 8 45 81
ur 10 5 11 5 21 10 46 70
tu 10 2 10 8 20 10 47 55
um 9 3 12 5 21 8 47 98
ud 9 4 13 4 22 8 47 92
xu 6 6 14 4 20 10 47 54
bu 10 2 10 8 20 10 49 66
sbu 7 5 13 4 20 9 49 103
gw 6 6 14 3 20 9 62 108
du 7 7 11 5 18 12 67 80
uri 4 8 13 4 17 12 76 62
fu 4 10 8 9 12 19 152 79
Let me reorganize this. Assuming that you need to be in the top 50 rpi to get into the tourney, here are the number of wins each teams needs to at least be on the bubble. Edited to show non-con games that some teams still have left.

10 WINS:
VCU (17 Games left)
Butler (18 Games left)
Temple (18 Games left)

11 WINS:
Charlotte (16 Games left)
Richmond (16 Games left)

12 WINS:
LaSalle (17 Games left)
St. Louis (17 Games left)
UMass (17 Games left)

13 WINS:
Dayton (17 Games left)
St. Bona (17 Games left)
Xavier (16 Games left)

14 WINS:
St. Joes (18 Games left)

Can't get a top 50 RPI:
GW
Duquesne
URI
Fordham


It seems like there are 3 near locks: VCU, Butler and Temple. After that I expect one to three of Charlotte, Richmond, LaSalle, UMass, St.Louis to hit/surpass their receptive win marks and be solid bubble teams.

Here are the probabilities for each team having a top 50 RPI from RPI forecast:
VCU : 99.7%
Butler: 87.8%
Temple: 71.0%
St. Louis: 46.5%
St. Joes: 33.5%
LaSalle: 21.6%
Charlotte: 14.4%
Dayton: 11.2%
Richmond: 8.7%
Xavier: 0.9%
UMass: 0.9%
St. Bona: 0.2%
GW: 0.0%
Duquesne: 0.0%
Fordham: 0.0%
URI: 0.0%
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,554 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
Thanks, that is better but some teams do have OOC games left that would be included in those win totals.

And anyone who was on the bubble from the A-10 would probably need at least a 1-1 record in Brooklyn to stay there.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,555 Posts
Solid info, just one little note to MM's breakdown it's not just needed in conference play there are still OOC games that can be added to that as well, I know Temple still has 3 OOC games left in addition to the conference slate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,554 Posts
Discussion Starter #5
I thought Temple had 2 games - Kansas & Penn?

FYI Xavier now needs 13 - I didn't count the Butler win as either conf or Non-Conf. :nonono:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,161 Posts
I thought Temple had 2 games - Kansas & Penn?

FYI Xavier now needs 13 - I didn't count the Butler win as either conf or Non-Conf. :nonono:
Thanks for clearing some things up, I'll update my post.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
Forgive my ignorance... I get that that's "what each school needs to do to get a Top 40 RPI" But the question I have is "what is the maximium number of Top 50 RPI teams we could get, and what do we need for THAT?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,161 Posts
Forgive my ignorance... I get that that's "what each school needs to do to get a Top 40 RPI" But the question I have is "what is the maximium number of Top 50 RPI teams we could get, and what do we need for THAT?
Using the win benchmarks given and assuming all the teams win the rest of their ooc games we can have 12 teams with a top 50 RPI if the bottom 4 lose all of their games. If this happens there probably wouldn't be 12 teams with a top 50 RPI since the given win benchmarks are the results of simulations which give more realistic outcomes.

Xavier: 13-3
St. Joes: 12-4
Dayton: 12-4
St. Bona: 12-4
Charlotte: 11-5
Richmond: 11-5
LaSalle: 11-5
St. Louis: 11-5
UMass: 11-5
VCU: 9-6
Buter: 8-8
Temple: 7-9
GW: 0-16
Duquesne: 0-16
URI: 0-16
Fordham: 0-16
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
Using the win benchmarks given and assuming all the teams win the rest of their ooc games we can have 12 teams with a top 50 RPI if the bottom 4 lose all of their games. If this happens there probably wouldn't be 12 teams with a top 50 RPI since the given win benchmarks are the results of simulations which give more realistic outcomes.
Well, that would be impossible, because GW, DUQ, URI and FOR will play each other. Best we could hope for is:

SJU 13-3 | 22-7
XAV 13-3 | 21-9
MASS 12-4 | 22-7
BONA* 12-4 | 20-9
CHAR 10-6 | 22-7
LAS 10-6 | 22-9
RICH 10-6 | 21-10
SLU 10-6 | 21-9
TEM 9-7 | 22-9
VCU 9-7 | 21-10
BUT 9-7 | 20-10
DAY* 5-11 | 15-15
---
GW 3-13 | 9-19
DUQ 2-14 | 9-21
URI 1-15 | 6-23
FOR 0-16 | 5-26

*Had to have someone to finish 12th. Dayton plays Xavier twice and Bona plays Duquesne twice. If we get 11 bids, that's $16.5 million MINIMUM for the conference if we go 0-11. I think we can send UD something nice.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,915 Posts
I think 11-5 will get UD in assuming one win in A10 play...that would be 22 wins. High seed but in.

I don't see us going 11-5 though.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,582 Posts
Jeff Sagarin's predictor is not really working well with UMass. Sagarin places a significant weight on margin of victory and since UMass finds it very difficult to win by more than one point, Sagarin Predictor consistently undervalues UMass (check out UMass' predicted/current RPI versus his 95% confidence interval and you can see that the Predictor is not working for UMass).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,554 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
My own rough estimate of future wins needed in the regular season to get this RPI.

* includes one OOC game
** includes one OOC game doesn't include the makeup game

Yes, Fordham needs 19 wins in 16 games...

Team Wins RPI SOS
bu 10 42 68 *
vcu 10 36 51
tu 11 37 57 **
lsu 11 41 103
cc 11 38 112
ur 12 39 79
slu 12 37 84
um 12 37 95
sju 13 41 94 *
ud 13 36 88
xu 14 42 60 *
sbu 14 39 101
du 15 38 86
gw 15 41 105
uri 16 37 64
fu 19 41 78
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
RealTimeRPI.com Game Projections:

(12-3) VCU 25-6, 13-3
(10-3) LaSalle 21-8, 11-5
(10-4) Dayton 20-10, 10-6
(11-3) SLU 21-9, 10-6
(11-2) Butler 22-8, 10-6
(8-4) SJU 18-11, 9-7
(10-3) Temple 20-10, 9-7
(12-2) Charlotte 20-10, 8-8
(10-3) UMass 18-11, 8-8
(10-5) Richmond 18-13, 8-8
(7-6) Xavier 15-15, 7-9
(7-7) Duquesne 14-16 7-9
(7-6) Bona 13-16, 6-10
(5-8) URI 10-19, 5-11
(6-7) GW 10-19, 4-12
(4-11) Fordham 7-24, 3-13
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,582 Posts
If VCU wins 13 games in conference, I'll be very, very happy.

I tend to think this conference is going to grind up a lot of teams and their will probably be very little separation between the top 5 or 6 teams in the league.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
If VCU wins 13 games in conference, I'll be very, very happy.

I tend to think this conference is going to grind up a lot of teams and their will probably be very little separation between the top 5 or 6 teams in the league.
I don't think they'll be much separation between teams 1-10.

I really, really, really want FOR, GW, URI and DUQ to beat no one but each other. I'd even be okay with my Bonnies finishing 12th if it meant the top 11 were all 9-7 or better.
 
1 - 19 of 19 Posts
Top