Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

1 - 9 of 9 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,393 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
2004 Expansion Draft and Trade Deadline Thoughts

OK, I know it's very early to be thinking about the expansion draft, let alone the trade deadline for next season, but it may have an effect on moves made by many teams.


Two things haved constantly popped into my mind as we discuss trades.

1 - Who do we protect in the expansion draft and 2) will teams make deals they wouldn't otherwise make next year at the trade deadline knowing they may lose a particular player in the expansion draft.

Let me go further and share my thoughts -


Which 8 guys do you protect?
IMHO: based on current roster and this draft:

1 - Curry
2 - Chandler
3 - Crawford
4 - Williams
5 - 1st rd. pick or guy we trade it for.
6 - One of the 3 2nd rd. picks that shows us something.
7 - Rose
8 - Marshall

So, that means 2 2nd rd picks will be exposed, along with Hassle, Baxter, Eddie Robinson, Mason, Jr. and Bagaric. While it's tempting to leave Rose un-protected due to dollars, it's a mistake because he is definitely earning his money. We're not that lucky to see Robinson's contract taken, unless Robinson steps up in a big way and then we wouldn't want to lose him.

I guess what I'm getting at is - Either we draft Euro's with our 2nd rd picks and stash them in Eurpoe for a few years (they aren't exposed to the expansion draft are they?) and we don't sign any valuable players to the MLE or we have to trade some talent in order not to lose someone we don't want to lose.

2nd part is, come trade deadline, will teams try to trade guys they wouldn't ordinarily trade to get value for someone they believe they would likely lose in the expansioin draft?

If anyone could give us a short recap on ow the expansion draft will work, that would be great.

Final thought - can Paxson give Houston our extra 2nd rd picks to pay off one of our worst trades ever - Bryce Drew?


PS - While I belive in depth, when you have all-stars, they play major minutes, reducing the need for great back-ups.
 

·
Anti Monday Morning QB
Joined
·
6,181 Posts
KG Trade with Expansion Draft Implications

On a whole, I don't like the overall trade proposal, but one question I have is how many players can we protect next year with the Charlotte expansion draft.

Say we are allowed to protect 7 players assuming our current roster stays the same

We will most likely protect

Curry
Chandler
Rose
Williams
Crawford
This year's first round draft pick unless we draft Euro
Either Fizer or Marshall (probably would keep Marshall since Fizer's contract is us)


This means we could lose one of the following
Fizer
ERob
R Mason
Hassell
Baxter
Hoiberg
Brunson
Blount
Bagaric

With Fizer being the most likely to go.

What I'm trying to do here is talk this out to myself to see if trading depth for KG be better with the expansion draft.

If what I said above is the case, the trade more looks like the depth we are trading is Rose, Williams and our #1 (and ERob salary filler) for KG (if we are to assume we'll lose either Fizer or Marshall to the expansion draft anyways and KG is an significant upgrade to Chandler).

I'd rather have a high contract in KG than in ERob, obviously, but I still don't know if I'd do Rose and Williams for KG straight up, unless management is set against a JWill and Craw backcourt. Throwing ERob into the trade actually makes it look a little more enticing than just Rose and JWill for KG straight up.

Any thoughts/insights are welcome, and feel free to verify the expansion draft protection rules. If what I have is correct, I'm about 50/50 on the trade idea so far.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
153 Posts
I agree with most of your list but I think the Bulls will likely leave Rose unprotected for the expansion draft next year. Gets rid of a max contract and allows them to keep the young core intact.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
440 Posts
Those arent the players I would protect.

Assuming the team stays intact here is what I would most definitely do:

Protect:

Curry
Chandler
Crawford
Williams (though one PG could be traded)
Fizer (if he is not traded)
Marshall (you dont leave a cheap contributor unprotected)
This years first round pick or someone we trade for.

Notable Unprotected?

Thats right, leave Rose unprotected. I highly doubt Charlotte would start their franchise with an aging Point Forward with a HUGE Max contract... hell, if they do, better for us, and more room for us.
 

·
Anti Monday Morning QB
Joined
·
6,181 Posts
I didn't even think about not protecting Rose, interesting.

I think that will be a smart move depending on how our young PGs gel this next year. I don't think management will want to leave a bunch of kids without a leader AGAIN after next season, unless someone steps up and proves they can be one next year.

Also, was my 7 protected player assumption accurate? I read the rules awhile back, but it is escaping me at the moment.
 

·
Anti Monday Morning QB
Joined
·
6,181 Posts
Wow, seems like we were thinking the same thing at the same time. I just beat you to the post button a little quicker.

Maybe we should merge threads.

I do like your list if we do get to protect 8 players (I couldn't remember the rule when I posted mine)
 

·
I never slice.
Joined
·
2,282 Posts
Re: 2004 Expansion Draft and Trade Deadline Thoughts

Originally posted by <b>chifaninca</b>!
Which 8 guys do you protect?
IMHO: based on current roster and this draft:

1 - Curry
2 - Chandler
3 - Crawford
4 - Williams
5 - 1st rd. pick or guy we trade it for.
6 - One of the 3 2nd rd. picks that shows us something.
7 - Rose
8 - Marshall
I don't see the expansion draft as a major concern.

I would protect for sure:

Curry
Chandler
Crawford
Williams
Fizer
1st round pick


Bubble guys:

Hassell
Baxter
Mason
other draft picks


Defintely leave exposed:

Blount
Brunson
Hoiberg
Rose
Robinson
Bagaric


You may feel Rose is earning his money. But that shouldn't factor into it. Most expansion teams are not going to want to start out with a 30+ guy who is making max dollars. Yes, ERob might move into the bubble category if he breaks out next season.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,393 Posts
Discussion Starter #8
Rhyder,

I merged the threads............You and I are on the same page.


As for not protecting Rose, remember that these guys can be traded after being taken. Rose still has a lot of value in the league. Plus, you don't piss off your veteran leader.

Also, PLEASE EVERYONE accept that we have no cap space and will not have cap space for years to come. We will be using MLE and trades to attain players from here on out.

We have all our up and coming "potential" players coming up for contract extensions. Whether we extend Crawford and/or Fizer we will be at the cap for years to come after this next year.

Again, if we add 5 players this off-season - 1MLE, 4 draft picks (not likely) that is too many with next years expansion draft.

no trades - we all agree that you gotta protect -

1) Curry
2) Chandler
3) Crawford
4) Williams
5) 1st rd. pick


That leaves three slots between:

Rose, Fizer, Marshall, Mason, Jr., 3 second rd. picks, Robinson, Bags


I'm just feeling that we have to make a trade or two.....
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,864 Posts
Re: Re: 2004 Expansion Draft and Trade Deadline Thoughts

Originally posted by <b>Kneepad</b>!
I don't see the expansion draft as a major concern.

I would protect for sure:

Curry
Chandler
Crawford
Williams
Fizer
1st round pick

Bubble guys:

Hassell
Baxter
Mason
other draft picks

Defintely leave exposed:

Blount
Brunson
Hoiberg
Rose
Robinson
Bagaric


You may feel Rose is earning his money. But that shouldn't factor into it. Most expansion teams are not going to want to start out with a 30+ guy who is making max dollars. Yes, ERob might move into the bubble category if he breaks out next season.
Exactly right. Chicago will leave Rose unprotected. Charlotte will not take Jalen Rose. Not going to happen. And Charlotte will not draft Rose just so they can turn around and trade him, because you can't get anything very good for a maxed out, disgruntled, high turnover, low FG%, no-upside player like Rose.

Charlotte will draft Dalibor Bagaric. Why? Because he is a restricted free agent that summer. By drafting Bagaric, Charlotte avoids adding superfluous salary to the payroll. The more Bagarics that Charlotte drafts, the more cap room they will have that summer. They will have a salary cap of $30 mil, 2/3 of non-expansion team salary caps. The less money they commit to expansion draftees, the more cap room they have to spend on free agents such as Emanuel Ginobili (who will be in the same situation as Gilbert Arenas this summer, i.e., his team can only offer him the MLE, the only way he gets more than that is by leaving), Mehmet Okur (same situation as Ginobili), etc. Other terrible players from the 2000 draft class who will be RFAs that summer (some players from that draft class will be FAs THIS summer, e.g., Donnell Harvey, Jason Collier, etc.) include Primoz Brezec and DeShawn Stevenson. Neither Indy nor Utah will protect these guys, and Charlotte will FOR SURE draft them.

Chicago will protect these guys:

1 Williams
2 Crawford (if he doesn't get traded this summer, that is)
3 Curry
4 Chandler
5 Marshall
6 Fizer
7 2003 first round pick
8 ?

Unprotected

Various worthless/no-upside second round picks
Rose
E-Rob
Bagaric

Charlotte takes Bagaric. If they take Rose, they are doing you a big favor. That guy's contract will end up killing you guys within a couple of years. His erratic play and his lousy attitude are already killing you. But they won't take Rose, they'll take Bagaric, so no reason to even consider the pros and cons of losing Rose this way.

No need to make trades, fellas, Charlotte takes Bagaric, trust me on this one. You guys may be drooling over the likes of Lonny Baxter, Roger Mason, and Trenton Hassell, but nobody else is, that's for sure!
 
1 - 9 of 9 Posts
Top