Professional and College Basketball Forums banner

1 - 14 of 14 Posts

·
Banned
Joined
·
335 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Preseason ratings: Why weight?

----------------------

Simply, they aren't "rankings", they are a statistical attempt at projecting incremental games. The ranking mechanism is biased to preseason rankings until nearly February because of the rules of statistical significance. In short, they are the polar opposite of RPI (or ELO Chess) which rank what has happened. They attempt to "rank" what is to come.

It'll be interesting to see what happens when Ken gets around to implementing his MOV cap (ie beating Alcorn State by 30 and 60 is the same thing). He said previously he was looking at that and understands the problem no cap presents.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
1,000 Posts
KenPom does conference title predictions. Number of times each team comes out on top out of 10,000 simulations...

Code:
Atlantic 10
VCU               6364
St. Louis         1263
Butler             775
Saint Joseph's     565
La Salle           381
Temple             267
Dayton             171
Xavier              94
Richmond            43
St. Bonaventure     33
Charlotte           15
Massachusetts       15
George Washington   13
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,592 Posts
Looks like his simulation doesn't include the luck factor.
It shouldn't. As Pomeroy notes on his blog, the luck factor has nothing to do with his rating calculation. It is merely the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and its expected record.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,732 Posts
With the New Year upon us, and non-conference schedules nearing completion for most, here are Pomeroy's current "rankings" and projected conference records based on data through 1/1/13:

13 VCU 13-3
30 St. Louis 11-5
38 Butler 11-5
52 La Salle 10-6
54 St. Joe's 10-6
62 Temple 9-7
67 Dayton 9-7
84 Richmond 8-8
94 Xavier 7-9
99 St. Bona 8-8
103 Charlotte 7-9
113 GW 7-9
114 UMass 7-9
200 URI 4-12
205 Duquesne 4-12
249 Fordham 3-13

Didn't add them up, but the records may not sum to .500 due to rounding.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,864 Posts
With the New Year upon us, and non-conference schedules nearing completion for most, here are Pomeroy's current "rankings" and projected conference records based on data through 1/1/13:

13 VCU 13-3
30 St. Louis 11-5
38 Butler 11-5
52 La Salle 10-6
54 St. Joe's 10-6
62 Temple 9-7
67 Dayton 9-7
84 Richmond 8-8
94 Xavier 7-9
99 St. Bona 8-8
103 Charlotte 7-9
113 GW 7-9
114 UMass 7-9
200 URI 4-12
205 Duquesne 4-12
249 Fordham 3-13

Didn't add them up, but the records may not sum to .500 due to rounding.
GW has been playing much better the last three weeks,with Dwayne Smith re-discovering his missing game and the Garino/Armwood combination turning GW into a very good defensive ball club. It's nice to see the efficiency ratings picking that up - and to see GW moving ahead of UMASS into 12th.

That said, I would gladly take 7-9 in the A-10 today. I would consider that a successful season for this young team.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
Looks like his simulation doesn't include the luck factor. Or includes it the wrong way.

It's funny to me that no one has created a system which drops the most unexpected results at each end of the spectrum for each team. We're talking about 18-22 year old college kids here. Hell, everyone has "the flu game" each year, where because you're on a college campus, traveling, living and eating together, it runs through the entire team in the course of a week.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,149 Posts
I think UMass may have the widest divergence between KenPom and RPI in history, like 100 vs. 40, or something like that.
edit: 114 vs. approximately 40
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
335 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
It's funny to me that no one has created a system which drops the most unexpected results at each end of the spectrum for each team. We're talking about 18-22 year old college kids here. Hell, everyone has "the flu game" each year, where because you're on a college campus, traveling, living and eating together, it runs through the entire team in the course of a week.
The issue is sample size. The reason that preseason ratings maintain weight until the end of January is the sample is just too small. Eliminating "outlier" games (if they were uniformly identifiable) would create a situation where there would be MORE weight to preseason ranking. That's a problem.

The simplest "haircut" without eliminating sample, so to speak, is the margin of victory/loss cap.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
With the New Year upon us, and non-conference schedules nearing completion for most, here are Pomeroy's current "rankings" and projected conference records based on data through 1/1/13:

13 VCU 13-3
30 St. Louis 11-5
38 Butler 11-5
52 La Salle 10-6
54 St. Joe's 10-6
62 Temple 9-7
67 Dayton 9-7
84 Richmond 8-8
94 Xavier 7-9
99 St. Bona 8-8
103 Charlotte 7-9
113 GW 7-9
114 UMass 7-9
200 URI 4-12
205 Duquesne 4-12
249 Fordham 3-13

Didn't add them up, but the records may not sum to .500 due to rounding.

We really need Fordham, GW, URI and Duquesne, Bona and Richmond to only beat each other (no offense to fans of those teams -- and I am a Bona fan).

Our ideal standings would be:
16. FOR: 0-16
15. URI - 1-15
14. GW - 2-14
13. DUQ - 3-13
11. Bona 4-12
11. Rich 5-11
Seven teams tied at 11-5
Three teams with weakest resumes at 12-4

won't happen, but I'm rooting for us getting a ridiculous amount of bids.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,277 Posts
The issue is sample size. The reason that preseason ratings maintain weight until the end of January is the sample is just too small. Eliminating "outlier" games (if they were uniformly identifiable) would create a situation where there would be MORE weight to preseason ranking. That's a problem.

The simplest "haircut" without eliminating sample, so to speak, is the margin of victory/loss cap.

It's all a matter of what you're trying to accomplish with these ratings.

I don't ever bother with Sagarin or PomRoy because... I don't gamble. That's really the only reason for these ratings to exist: gambling purposes.


Rating teams to rate teams and see who's better is relatively worthless. We have a nice big tournament at the end of the year to determine who's the best. Replicating the NCAA's formula for RPI has some value, because that's the metric they use to pick teams and we want to know where we all stand in that now.

Numbers are just numbers. The important thing is to know WHY the numbers are what they are, and what the numbers mean.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,864 Posts
I think UMass may have the widest divergence between KenPom and RPI in history, like 100 vs. 40, or something like that.
edit: 114 vs. approximately 40
GW is 207 in the RPI, but 113 in the Pomeroys. That's a difference of 84 (so even larger than UMASS' difference - though GW is hurt by the RPI, whereas UMASS is helped by it).
 
1 - 14 of 14 Posts
Top