For Wright State, I think we have really underestimated them. I took a look at their non-conference schedule today, and it has been a pretty tough one. Losing to an NAIA opponent can really throw your judgment of a team off. I'd be willing to say that they'll finish third now. In fact, here's a new list of where I think everyone will finish up.
1st - Wisconsin-Milwaukee
2nd - Wisconsin-Green Bay
3rd - Wright State
4th - Detroit
5th - Butler
6th - Illinois-Chicago
7th - Loyola
8th - Youngstown State
9th - Cleveland State
The only two there that I might switch would be Butler and UIC. I think Butler is still underrated, but better that UIC. As for the top three, the conference title is still up for grabs.
It looks like the Horizon League might have a chance for two bids, but only if UWM wins out, maybe loses one or two more games, and then loses the conference tournament and gets an at-large bid. We might even be able to see three if Detroit can somehow boost its RPI in time for the tournament, but that would be a very long shot. I think two would be as far as I would go for that.
I agree that we all seemilgly underestimated WSU, but I don't know if I buy the fact that they played a challenging schedule. Depending on where you look, their strength of schedule (SOS) is anywhere form 140ish to 200ish. Although this is not bad, it is not like they are playing a bunch of high claiber teams. But, with that being said, our upcoming game with them scares me a little.
I disagree with you on the prospect of the HL getting two teams into the dance. Even if UWM wins out (which is HIGHLY unlikely), I doubt that they will get more than a casual look by the committee. They don't have any real "power" wins, and the conference isn't helping out. There are not enough teams in the HL with high enough RPI's to push UWM's up to an "at-large" level. IMO if UWM doesn't win the tournament they don't get in. As far as everyone else, there is no question that their only chance of getting in is by winning the tournament. This year it is simply the case of the HL beating each other up. The same thing that happens in the MVC and the MAC. Do I think that there are several teams in the HL good enough to get a bid? Sure, but the NCAA is a numbers game and this year the HL just doens't have the right numbers - too many low RPI's and not enough big wins. As much as I would like to see multiple HL teams in the dance, I just don't see it happening this year.
I think you're right on that, actually. I was thinking about the "power" wins after I posted that. At this point, there may be no chance. However, UWM does have a chance to be able to get an at-large if they get a good opponent for the Bracket Buster game. That would be any team in this conference's last chance to really get their RPI up to that level.