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Discussion Starter #1
It's so simple I have no idea why no one has called them on it. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Howard is the next KG. Great. But he's not going to be KG next year, or the year after, or the year after. At best, he'll be at that level at age 25, and that's if he exceeds expectations (and KG's pace). But he's only 18 now. So in 7 years you're going to have prime (maybe, if lucky) Howard and 32 year old second man Steve Francis? A guy who uses his athleticism a lot in his game? Can Francis be the "Pippen" of a championship team at 32 (I don't think he ever can, but that's beside the point)?

What the Magic should have done was get someone really young with potential. They could do it because it would seem like a steal for the other team today, they'd be getting T-Mac right? This topic isn't about who they should have gotten, so don't tear apart these suggestions, but just off the top of my head I wouldn't mind getting Radmanovic, Dalembert, or Gilbert Arenas.

Before anyone says that T-Mac wouldn't agree to trades expect a few places, remember that it doesn't matter. Teams don't need players permission to trade them. Only the two teams involved. Some teams, though not necessarily the ones I listed, might be willing to make the deal knowing that T-Mac will likely leave because of all the cap space they'd get.

Bottom line is that Francis won't be capable of being a major part of a championship run by the time Howard is ready to be the man.
 

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You mean another Bulls?

Francis' contract will expire then and if Howard is really good,
he should be able to attract his own Pippen in case Magic
couldn't draft 1 for him.
 

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Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!
So, you think it's a better idea trying to beg someone to come in off the free market instead of using a top5 or 6 player in the NBA to get who you want?
Who can Magic get without the resigning promise of TMac?
Besides, potential is overrated(ala Bulls, Clippers). Magic
wants to stay competitive during Howard development.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Who can Magic get without the resigning promise of TMac?
I'm not sure. Even if TMac doesn't promise to resign, they still get to use him for a year to bring in crowds and all that capspace he'll open. I bet there are a few teams out there which wouldn't mind having a player who can get them over the hump for a year, increase the profits a bit, and then leave a ton of space when he leaves.

Besides, potential is overrated(ala Bulls, Clippers). Magic
wants to stay competitive during Howard development.
Why stay competitive during Howard development if it is at the sacrifice of being a championship level team when he finally reaches his prime?
 

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By the time Howard is 25 I doubt a 32 year old Francis will be the second option. The team will be so different by then it's pointless to speculate. Francis and Mobley will be the core to bridge the gap between the T-Mac era and the Howard/Nelson era. I'd much rather have Francis, Mobley, and co. than Radmonivic or any of that other garbage.
 

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I think it is to stay competitive while Howard develops...

Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!
Why stay competitive during Howard development if it is at the sacrifice of being a championship level team when he finally reaches his prime?

1) There's no guarantee that tanking while Howard is young will get you a championship. It only gets young talent.

2) You don't want to create a losing environment/attitude. Look at the Bulls.

3) Think of the money the franchise will lose by continuing to have terrible teams.

4) What if Howard doesn't develop into a KG level talent ? If he's no more than 3rd option role-player, then you need other quality players.

5) Francis (and Mobley) are still assets. They could always be traded if they don't fit around Howard.
 

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kiss my grits
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Obviously if Orlando could have traded Tmac and gotten a couple of low-20 year old potential superstars, then sure, they would have done it.

Orlando's options were limited because they were steadfast on trading him and Tmac held a lot of the power because no team is going to give up potential young studs without an agreement with Tmac that he will re-sign. And any team that would make the trade without a guarantee from Tmac to potentially dump salary wouldn't have anything Orlando wanted anyway.

Lets not forget that Orlando did trade away Tmac, but they also dumped 3 guys with basically negative value in Juwan Howard, Ty Lue, and Reece Gaines. 3 guys that Orlando no longer wanted and would have been very difficult in trading by themselves in the future.

What Orlando has done is made themselves potentially competitive in the East right now and at the same time they've got two potentially very good rookies for the future. They have also stockpiled many more tradeable assets than they have had in the past. The team is no longer just Tmac and a bunch of guys that no one else would want.

I also don't think it should be assumed that Howard won't make a significant impact until he is 25. But even if he does, Orlando could potentially trade Francis or Mobley in the future for a younger player and at some point they are also going to either have Grant Hill on the court or no longer have his contract on their books.

Like i've said before, I think this trade will work out in the end for both teams.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
By the time Howard is 25 I doubt a 32 year old Francis will be the second option. The team will be so different by then it's pointless to speculate. Francis and Mobley will be the core to bridge the gap between the T-Mac era and the Howard/Nelson era. I'd much rather have Francis, Mobley, and co. than Radmonivic or any of that other garbage.
Why is a bridge necessary?

Why not get someone who can be an effective second man? Why give up T-Mac so that you can have borderline playoff teams, and once you get there Francis is finished?
 

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Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!


Why is a bridge necessary?

Why not get someone who can be an effective second man? Why give up T-Mac so that you can have borderline playoff teams, and once you get there Francis is finished?
Since when is a 32 yr old player finished?
 

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Discussion Starter #11
I think it is to stay competitive while Howard develops...
Why?

1) There's no guarantee that tanking while Howard is young will get you a championship. It only gets young talent.
It wouldn't be tanking for the sake of tanking. The point isn't to try and get draft picks. The point is to develop someone along side of Howard.

2) You don't want to create a losing environment/attitude. Look at the Bulls.
This doesn't make since because you don't give any reasons why having a losing team is a bad idea. You gave an example, which isn't the same as a reason.

3) Think of the money the franchise will lose by continuing to have terrible teams.
I'm not sure if they'd be losing money, it'd probably just be making less profit, which is different from actually losing money. There are lots of perennial losers who still make enough to get by.

4) What if Howard doesn't develop into a KG level talent ? If he's no more than 3rd option role-player, then you need other quality players.
Francis will still be 32 when Howard is 25, regardless if he's another KG or not.

5) Francis (and Mobley) are still assets. They could always be traded if they don't fit around Howard.
They already don't fit around Howard because they are too much older than he is. They aren't as big of an asset as T-Mac was.
 

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kiss my grits
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Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!


A 32 year old player who relies on athleticism a lot isn't finished, but he isn't the 2nd option on a championship team either.
There is no reason to believe that. By the time Francis is 32, he could decide to really play as a true PG and could be very valuable as an experienced PG to a growing team.

A guy at 32 is by no means finished. Seems like you are just looking for reasons to be convinced this was a bad trade for Orlando.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Obviously if Orlando could have traded Tmac and gotten a couple of low-20 year old potential superstars, then sure, they would have done it.
In my opinion, they don't need potential superstars. A borderline all-stars would suffice.

Orlando's options were limited because they were steadfast on trading him and Tmac held a lot of the power because no team is going to give up potential young studs without an agreement with Tmac that he will re-sign. And any team that would make the trade without a guarantee from Tmac to potentially dump salary wouldn't have anything Orlando wanted anyway.
The part I struggle with is why they could get for a salary dump. I'm not sure, honestly. Maybe the guys I listed (and those on their level) are too good for that, but I'd be willing to take someone who is more raw (and a bigger risk) if that would work out better tradewise.

Lets not forget that Orlando did trade away Tmac, but they also dumped 3 guys with basically negative value in Juwan Howard, Ty Lue, and Reece Gaines. 3 guys that Orlando no longer wanted and would have been very difficult in trading by themselves in the future.
True.

What Orlando has done is made themselves potentially competitive in the East right now and at the same time they've got two potentially very good rookies for the future. They have also stockpiled many more tradeable assets than they have had in the past. The team is no longer just Tmac and a bunch of guys that no one else would want.
What's the point in being competitive if it's not building towards a championship? That's what I don't understand. That's the mindset of the Hornets. "Let's be pretty good."

I also don't think it should be assumed that Howard won't make a significant impact until he is 25. But even if he does, Orlando could potentially trade Francis or Mobley in the future for a younger player and at some point they are also going to either have Grant Hill on the court or no longer have his contract on their books.
1) I highly, highly, highly doubt a Francis/Howard combo can win a championship before Howard reaches his prime (and by that point Francis will likely have declined significantly.

2) Francis and Mobley's trade value are not going to ever be better than they are right now. He's still only 25, and likely won't be much better than he is today. You sell when stock is at it's peak.

3) The stuff about Grant Hill and his contract would still apply if you had gotten someone besides Francis/Mobley.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
There is no reason to believe that. By the time Francis is 32, he could decide to really play as a true PG and could be very valuable as an experienced PG to a growing team.

A guy at 32 is by no means finished. Seems like you are just looking for reasons to be convinced this was a bad trade for Orlando.
Please list guards who relied on athleticism who were still at or near their peak at age 32.

1. MJ
2. ?
3. ?

Keep in mind, this is best case scenerio. If Howard becomes a hall of famer, he still most likely won't be ready to lead his team to a championship until 27, 28, or 29. Which would put Francis up into his mid 30s.
 

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Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!
In my opinion, they don't need potential superstars. A borderline all-stars would suffice.
What other options were there? You think the Wizards get rid of Arenas (and others would need to be included for the salary) without any sort of guarantee they were going to keep Tmac? And you mention Radmonivic, but how does he makes things any better than Francis and Mobley? There were not a whole lot of options and Orlando took the best option they got.


The part I struggle with is why they could get for a salary dump. I'm not sure, honestly. Maybe the guys I listed (and those on their level) are too good for that, but I'd be willing to take someone who is more raw (and a bigger risk) if that would work out better tradewise.
Orlando was not interested in dumping salary. The team has slowly declined the last for years because they keep bringing in crap players. If they dump Tmac for more crap players, their fanbase is gone .. done. And already being rumored to possibly be moving and fighting to try to get a new arena, you are not going to get that by having one of the worst teams in the East for the next 3 or 4 years.


What's the point in being competitive if it's not building towards a championship? That's what I don't understand. That's the mindset of the Hornets. "Let's be pretty good."
Why are they not building towards a championship? They are just as close to a championship as 75% of the other teams in the NBA.

1) I highly, highly, highly doubt a Francis/Howard combo can win a championship before Howard reaches his prime (and by that point Francis will likely have declined significantly.
No real reason to believe Francis will decline significantly. And no real reason it is going to take Howard 7 yrs to make a bigtime impact. You can't assume that by stockpiling draft picks or salary cap for the future that that is going to make you a contender in the future. You could draft flops and strike-out in free agency, then what do you have? Orlando has a lot more good pieces to work with now and finally has some future tradeable assets.

2) Francis and Mobley's trade value are not going to ever be better than they are right now. He's still only 25, and likely won't be much better than he is today. You sell when stock is at it's peak.
You never know when a team in the future that is close to a championship might view Francis or Mobley as a final piece to the puzzle. And Francis' stock is not necessarily high right now coming off his worst season as a pro. A couple years of free reign in Orlando and his stock could skyrocket. If Jameer is ready to start at PG, maybe Orlando could trade Francis to another team for a top flight SG or SF.
 

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Originally posted by <b>Pan Mengtu</b>!
It wouldn't be tanking for the sake of tanking. The point isn't to try and get draft picks. The point is to develop someone along side of Howard.
Ok. I don't think you have to develop someone along side Howard who is exactly the same age (or whatever). Garnett has Cassell and Sprewell who are 7-8 years older than him. The Wolves got those two for a retired PG and Joe Smith.

Once you have a player like that, it's easy to add the pieces around him. You don't have to draft his teammates. Others want to play on a winning team and provided you keep the team salary in check, it's easy to trade/sign good players.

This doesn't make since because you don't give any reasons why having a losing team is a bad idea. You gave an example, which isn't the same as a reason.
A losing team is a bad idea. I brought up the Bulls to show this, but i'll explain it.

Without a winning team, I think it starts a bad cycle. FA's don't want to sign with you, the current 'prime' players you have don't want to be there. So you get young kids, cancers and over the hill roleplayers. Without good role models and winning attitude, the young guys don't work hard and bolt as soon as they become FA's. The team drafts a new player to replace them and the cycle starts again.

Just my opinion anyway.

I'm not sure if they'd be losing money, it'd probably just be making less profit, which is different from actually losing money. There are lots of perennial losers who still make enough to get by.
Well, the Clippers and Knicks probably manage this. But, i'm not sure the Magic has the same fan population to do this. I might be wrong though...

Francis will still be 32 when Howard is 25, regardless if he's another KG or not.

They already don't fit around Howard because they are too much older than he is. They aren't as big of an asset as T-Mac was.
As I said earlier in the KG/Spree/Cassell example, 7 years is not always too much. T-Mac didn't want to be there, which goes back to the losing attitude part I mentioned earlier.
 

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Originally posted by <b>Scinos</b>!
Well, the Clippers and Knicks probably manage this. But, i'm not sure the Magic has the same population fan to do this. I might be wrong though...
Not they can't, not right now. The Orlando fanbase is tremendous when the team is great (the Shaq and Penny days) but very lackluster otherwise.

And right now the Orlando organization is fighting to get themselves a new arena and a losing team guarantees that will not happen and would possibly lead to the team moving elsewhere.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
What other options were there? You think the Wizards get rid of Arenas (and others would need to be included for the salary) without any sort of guarantee they were going to keep Tmac? And you mention Radmonivic, but how does he makes things any better than Francis and Mobley? There were not a whole lot of options and Orlando took the best option they got.
Like I said, I don't know if the Wizards would give up Arenas or not. He was just someone that came off the top of my head. The point was to look or players who are good, and young. Superstar potential isn't necessary.

Players like Radmanovic and other young potentials are better simply because they are younger. Even if they aren't going to be as good as Francis, at least their peak at the same time as Howard. Tim Duncan has done just fine without another superstar on his team.

Orlando was not interested in dumping salary. The team has slowly declined the last for years because they keep bringing in crap players. If they dump Tmac for more crap players, their fanbase is gone .. done. And already being rumored to possibly be moving and fighting to try to get a new arena, you are not going to get that by having one of the worst teams in the East for the next 3 or 4 years.
I meant the other other teams might be interested in dumping salary. Getting the expiring contract of T-Mac in exchange for good, not great young players, knowing that he probably won't stay. Teams may or may not have went for that, it's not completely unheard of. Dumars was sort of expecting Rasheed to leave after this year, although things worked out better than planned there.

Why are they not building towards a championship? They are just as close to a championship as 75% of the other teams in the NBA.
Because their best two players are 7 years apart in age. And the better of the two is the youngest, not the oldest (if Francis was the potential hall of famer, the age gap wouldn't matter).

No real reason to believe Francis will decline significantly. And no real reason it is going to take Howard 7 yrs to make a bigtime impact. You can't assume that by stockpiling draft picks or salary cap for the future that that is going to make you a contender in the future. You could draft flops and strike-out in free agency, then what do you have? Orlando has a lot more good pieces to work with now and finally has some future tradeable assets.
Please clarify what you mean by "make a big impact." I'm specifically talking about leading a team to an NBA title. If that's what you mean by "make a big impact," please say so, though I disagree.

Future draft picks are a risk, but Francis being 32 (at best, most likely older) when Howard reaches his prime is a sure thing.

You never know when a team in the future that is close to a championship might view Francis or Mobley as a final piece to the puzzle. And Francis' stock is not necessarily high right now coming off his worst season as a pro. A couple years of free reign in Orlando and his stock could skyrocket. If Jameer is ready to start at PG, maybe Orlando could trade Francis to another team for a top flight SG or SF.
Well, first good point about Francis having his worst season, but I still don't see how his stock can get much better. He just got packaged for T-Mac, that's pretty high stock.
 

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Of course it wasn't good for Orlando. TMac forced their hand. You would never want to trade a top 5 player in or before his prime.
 
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