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The more I read about the virus spread, the stupidity of so many people nation wide and the consequences for even one or two members of a team coming down with the virus during the season, it seems the whole league could be thrown into disarray in an instant...Games cancelled, teams needing to shut down for two weeks as a precaution, etc. As much as I REALLY want to see hoops come back (at a minimum without fans in the stands), it seems like a stretch to me. We may start off with high hopes, but my guess is hoops this season could well vanish quickly, given how aggressive the virus is.

What do you think?
 

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Unless the NCAA takes the route of professional sports and prioritizes money over health and safety, I doubt there will be a season. This isn't going to go away any time soon.
 

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It looks most likely that there will no students on campus at most schools and those who try to have in-person classes will send the students home after a month or so. The big uptick we are seeing now in the southern state cases isn't going slow down for many weeks even if those states shut down completely, which is doubtful, and those are some of the biggest sports states in the US.

It might be possible that some schools would allow student athletes to stay on campus, practice and play in empty gyms with TV coverage, but without at least the other teams in the conference also doing these things it seems pointless.

The best outcome I can come up with is an effective, early vaccine which allows a "return to normal" in the spring semester with basketball being played from January thru May.
 

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Unless the NCAA takes the route of professional sports and prioritizes money over health and safety, I doubt there will be a season. This isn't going to go away any time soon.
The problem is there are only 2-3 conferences plus Gonzaga that actually have that as option.

Inconvenient truth is Midmajors do not generate the revenue--and the schools are not willing nor able to further subsidize--to cover the increased costs associated with pandemic play ("bubble", etc), especially when there aren't fans. Ticket revenue for college sports is a much bigger piece of the pie than it is for professional sports, and television contracts--even at the highest level of non-tourney NCAA play--are chickenfeed compared to NBA television contracts.

Student-athletes are still regular kids who walk around campus, go to class, eat, etc and thus are exposed to CoronaVirus. You can't just pay them each $10M and put them in Disneyland for 3 months and hope for the best.
 

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It looks most likely that there will no students on campus at most schools and those who try to have in-person classes will send the students home after a month or so. The big uptick we are seeing now in the southern state cases isn't going slow down for many weeks even if those states shut down completely, which is doubtful, and those are some of the biggest sports states in the US.

It might be possible that some schools would allow student athletes to stay on campus, practice and play in empty gyms with TV coverage, but without at least the other teams in the conference also doing these things it seems pointless.

The best outcome I can come up with is an effective, early vaccine which allows a "return to normal" in the spring semester with basketball being played from January thru May.
The strategy to keeping the spread of the virus at low/manageable levels appears more and more straightforward by the day.

-Everyone needs to wear masks
-Under absolutely no circumstance are you able to open bars/nightclubs/entertainment venues

Burlington's learning the difficulty of opening bars during a pandemic right now. Governor Scott issued strict guidelines regarding bars; essentially they can open, but they have to operate with table-service ONLY like a restaurant (and of course with capacity restrictions). The issue is the patrons want to drink at a bar, and you can't count on bartenders/staff to self-police their establishments.

Everything else about colleges reopening in places like Vermont or Hawaii--where they've done very good jobs suppressing spread--should be achievable. But you can't let kids party--either at Rasputin's or at some shitty unregulated basement on Buell Street. And you aren't going to be able to shame kids for not adhering to social distancing guidelines... This is the only hang up for me.
 

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The Ivy League is thinking about moving their football season to the spring. I wonder if we’re going to start seeing other fall sports do the same.
 

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The problem is there are only 2-3 conferences plus Gonzaga that actually have that as option.

Inconvenient truth is Midmajors do not generate the revenue--and the schools are not willing nor able to further subsidize--to cover the increased costs associated with pandemic play ("bubble", etc), especially when there aren't fans. Ticket revenue for college sports is a much bigger piece of the pie than it is for professional sports, and television contracts--even at the highest level of non-tourney NCAA play--are chickenfeed compared to NBA television contracts.

Student-athletes are still regular kids who walk around campus, go to class, eat, etc and thus are exposed to CoronaVirus. You can't just pay them each $10M and put them in Disneyland for 3 months and hope for the best.
That's what I'm saying. Putting them on campus and having them play puts their health and safety at risk.
 

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Rick Pitino has called for starting the season with just conference games in January and no conference tournament. Who ever wins the regular season is dancing if we even have the dance.

Rick Pitino Calls For College Basketball To Begin In January; Dan Hurley Says It’s ‘Hard To Comprehend’ Starting In November
Not a bad idea... if it comes to that, rather than canceling just plan for league games. 32 conference. Each gets a bid and a quick 32 teams tourney. Skips non-conference games and conference tournaments.
 

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Rick Pitino has called for starting the season with just conference games in January and no conference tournament. Who ever wins the regular season is dancing if we even have the dance.

Rick Pitino Calls For College Basketball To Begin In January; Dan Hurley Says It’s ‘Hard To Comprehend’ Starting In November
While I get why that’s a good idea, my main concern is that schools at our level are depending on non-conference guarantee games. Without that Georgetown game, without that Syracuse game, UMBC would be in a lot of financial trouble over the next year or two. If the NCAA does go with this, I can see a lot of athletic departments deciding to take the entire school year off like Moorhouse St did.
 

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I’m still not even convinced the pro leagues are going to be able to pull this off, not to mention colleges. The NBA still has four full weeks before opening tip, and case numbers are going to continue increasing for a while considering roll-backs in the most affected states will have a delayed impact. That whole bubble concept and the money factor helps a ton In terms of keeping it on the burner but I think this is far from a sure thing yet.

With that as a backdrop, I don’t think too many colleges are going to green light a normal fall and winter sports schedule unless they feel really good about the risk. All it would take is one fatality for the whole thing to seem absurd, and very few administrators are likely to be willing to take that risk. Needless to say, the next several weeks will be pretty critical in terms of whether enough collective intelligence can be mustered to get this back under some type of control.
 

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From what I've read, macabre as it sounds, the death rate among younger people in July will be a major deciding factor for schools opening for in-person classes in the fall. Many, if not most, of the new cases explosion are young people and if the death rate is very low then schools will be more likely to open, particularly if they are really hurting financially.

Of course, the faculty and staff will be very much at risk and may die in record numbers just to keep bread on the table. All around, the choices are bad ones and to play sports or not will not be a big needle mover.
 

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There are long term risks to lung health even for people who "recover" quickly.
This certainly appears to be the case. Micro blood clots are causing not only lung problems but also strokes, heart attacks and multiple organ failures. Young people should be aware that even though they think they are A-OK they may have long term health problems. I am concerned about long term problems in athletes who get infected and "play through it."
 

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I would think the NCAA will be watching the NBA/NHL/MLB etc to see if they can pull it off. A virus-related failure of professional sports when they presumably can exist in a 'bubble' probably wipes out the NCAA season. But the success of professional sports certainly does not mean the NCAA allows them.

It will be interesting to see what the mass migration of students in August looks like when it comes to the spread of the virus. My son goes to a 11,000 student school located in a county of 150,000 people. They have a cumulative total of about 100 cases there. Check back in mid-September to see what those numbers look like..... I hope I am off base here, but at this point I can't see how students returning to campus does not cause another spike - especially in places that have been relatively tame.
 

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There are long term risks to lung health even for people who "recover" quickly.
From what I’ve been told is that there are long-term lung & heart risks for people that get COVID-19 and recover, and much of what the long-term health impact will be is still unknown.
 

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It will be interesting to see what the mass migration of students in August looks like when it comes to the spread of the virus. My son goes to a 11,000 student school located in a county of 150,000 people. They have a cumulative total of about 100 cases there. Check back in mid-September to see what those numbers look like..... I hope I am off base here, but at this point I can't see how students returning to campus does not cause another spike - especially in places that have been relatively tame.
That school sounds quite familiar... and if it's the school I'm thinking of, almost half of the students didn't go home as a majority of full-time students don't live on campus.
 

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Colorado Mesa U. They seriously considered jumping to DI from DII last fall, but decided not to. Dixie State, a similar sized school in the same athletic conference, did jump. I wonder if they regret that now.

BTW - Dixie State is not a southern school. It is located in St. George Utah, which is in the area known as the "Mormon Dixie" due to it being an area of Utah that is relatively warm in the winter.
 

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Colorado Mesa U. They seriously considered jumping to DI from DII last fall, but decided not to. Dixie State, a similar sized school in the same athletic conference, did jump. I wonder if they regret that now.

BTW - Dixie State is not a southern school. It is located in St. George Utah, which is in the area known as the "Mormon Dixie" due to it being an area of Utah that is relatively warm in the winter.
It is about 100 miles from Vegas
 

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Colorado Mesa U. They seriously considered jumping to DI from DII last fall, but decided not to. Dixie State, a similar sized school in the same athletic conference, did jump. I wonder if they regret that now.

BTW - Dixie State is not a southern school. It is located in St. George Utah, which is in the area known as the "Mormon Dixie" due to it being an area of Utah that is relatively warm in the winter.
Dixie St. has had D1 quality facilities for decades, and could've easily been mistaken for a D1 program for a long time. It was a long time coming.
 
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