I don't see either VCU or GMU adding football.......they may be large institutions, but outside of campus, I don't see a huge market for either of these programs considering the $milllions that they would have to spend just to start up an FCS or FBS program from scratch.

Regarding App State, Georgia Southern, and Jax State........don't see a heck of a lot of room or demand for any of them. As I said in my prior post, Louisville, Cincinnati, Temple, West Virginia, Memphis, Central Florida & South Florida all rise to the top of the heap if they don't latch on with a BCS conference. Marshall, Charlotte, East Carolina, ODU, Georgia State are all next after those schools.......then JMU & Florida Atlantic.

If many of those top tier schools are chosen to join BCS expansions then App State comes into play......and maybe Jax State. I don't see Georgia Southern having any shot though.

 

I don't see either VCU or GMU adding football.......they may be large institutions, but outside of campus, I don't see a huge market for either of these programs considering the $milllions that they would have to spend just to start up an FCS or FBS program from scratch.

I do. There was talk at the CAA basketball tournament this year of Mason going first (2014/5), then VCU (2015/6). If you saw places like ODU and JMU play FBS football, VCU and GMU will take their place as FCS institutions who play football in the Commonwealth.

Jeff's hybrid conference with NU, HU, Drexel, BU, GWU, etc is the one "conference" I've heard the most of if the chips fall and the Big East get raided and wind up a non-football conference (remember, the name stays with the "Catholic" schools).

 

With it being conference realignment and all, I'm just going to preface this post by saying this is just a lot of guesswork going into this. Anyhow, I've seen a number of writers and officials bring up the realistic possibility of there being four 16 team "super-conferences". Evidently, it's a somewhat plausable scenario, so here's how I guess it would shake-out. Note that this is pretty much based on football, going on the assumption that the basketball-only Big East schools would form their own sort of All Catholic League:

Northeast/Midwest League:

Pittsburgh
Rutgers
UConn
Syracuse
Boston College
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan

ACC Offshoot

Clemson
Florida State
Wake Forest
Maryland
Georgia Tech
NC State
North Carolina
Duke
South Carolina
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Miami
Louisville
Cincinnati
West Virginia
South Florida

New SEC/Southwest

Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Baylor

West (Relative Term)

Nebraska
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oregon
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon State
Stanford
USC
UCLA
California
Washington
Washington State


League go with three 16 team leagues and one 17 team league, but that's the best I could really think of. Really just tried to go with best geographic fit and split up the Big 12 North and Big 12 South

The All-Catholic League for basketball would probably go like this:

Georgetown
Villanova
Marquette
Notre Dame (stay an Indep. in football)
Seton Hall
St. John's
Providence
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton

As for setting up massive realignment in the mid and low major ranks, it probably wouldn't go very far with the superconference setup. A-10 could seek to add two teams to replace Xavier and Dayton, but then again, they may just want to scale back to 12 teams.

Obviously I'm no mainejeff, but figured I'd give it a try

 

If I had to make a general prediction about the BCS conferences:

Big Ten goes to 16
ACC goes to 16
SEC goes to 16
Big 12 adds 2(after losing Missouri to the Big Ten and Colorado to the PAC-10) and stays at 12
Big East (football) ceases to exist.

 

Looks like it's going to be Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Missouri and Nebraska headed to the Big Ten:

http://www.wndu.com/sports/headlines/92447574.html

The Big Ten will look like this:

Syracuse
Rutgers
Penn State
Pitt
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana

Northwestern
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Nebraska

With this information.......predicted changes/re-caps to my original scenarios in this thread:

SEC:

West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Clemson
South Carolina
Georgia
Miami

Florida
Florida State
Alabama
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
LSU
Arkansas

ACC (stays at 12 members):

BC
UConn
Maryland
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Louisville

NC State
North Carolina
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
South Florida

Big 12 (stays at 12 members):

Kansas State
Kansas
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas

Texas A&M
Rice
Houston
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU

PAC-10 (goes to 12 members):

Washington
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon State
Cal
Stanford

UCLA
USC
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Utah

Conference USA (expands to 16 members - all sports):

Temple
Cincinnati
Marshall
JMU
ODU
Charlotte
East Carolina
Georgia State

Central Florida
Memphis
UAB
Southern Miss
Tulane
Tulsa
SMU
UTEP

Big East Basketball (10 members):

Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown
Dayton
Xavier
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette

"New" Eastern Basketball:

NU
Boston U.
Hofstra
St. Bonaventure
Drexel
LaSalle
St. Joes
George Washington
George Mason
VCU

America East:

Maine
UNH
Vermont
UMass
URI
Hartford

Albany
Binghamton
Stony Brook
Delaware
Towson
UMBC

Patriot:

Holy Cross
Colgate
Army
Fordham
Monmouth
Bucknell

Lehigh
Lafayette
Navy
American
Richmond
W&M

 

Why wouldn't UMass and URI go with the "New Eastern Basketball" group?

 

Yeah and there's no way Fordham and W&M drop to the Patriot either.

But it's an interesting scenario.

I can't believe that Nebraska and Colorado are leaving the Big 12.

 

Gotta think the bottom will break just as the top did - Football first. Thus, I'd be surprised to see the AE and PL the way it's listed.

Very nice work with the rest of the list though

Just wondering, did you consider Lamar, UTSA, TxST, and Sam Houston as they consider moving up? Sounds like the Southland is in flux atm.

 

Maybe on the football thing.......but travel/regionalism will be a huge factor at the FCS level IMO.

Didn't consider the Southland because it doesn't really affect the Eastern schools.

 

Nero comments on possible conference shake-ups.........

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=930241&category=SPORTS

 

While I despise Albany with every ounce of my soul, I do have to say that the Times Union does a really nice job covering our conference.

 

Keep in mind this story was written by the Siena beat writer, not Albany's, and the picture accompanying it was of Rich Ensor. AEast was along for the ride on this one.

 

Nero mentioned that the AE set a plan together five years ago. I was lucky enough to actually see the plan. I can't say who showed it to me, but this is a link to where it can be found..


http://www.imageenvision.com/clipar....com/clipart/14880-man-tied-up-and-blindfolded-by-a-brick-wall-clipart-by-djart

 

In all seriousness, if anyone has access to that doc, PM me - I'd love to read it.

The NY Post is reporting:

The Post has learned that administrators at the non-football playing Big East schools have had contingency discussions that include possibly adding Dayton, Duquesne, St. Joseph's and Xavier if their football-playing brethren veer off like unsecured electrons. "The concern is if that there will be too much carnage to the football league, we want to be in a position to be the best possible league we can be," said the athletic director of a non-football playing Big East program.

 

Seems strange to me include Duquesne and St. Joes and not a team like St. Louis or even non Catholic institutions like Butler, Richmond. JMHO though. I guess Duquesne makes sense to potentially replace Pitt, but why St. Joe's when the league would presumably already have Nova?

Dayton and Xavier are absolute no brainers however.

 

I agree, I'd add St. Louis before another Philly team, unless they want to minimize travel costs for Olympic sports (then Marquette and DePaul make no sense).

Unless SLU has its eye on the MVC.

Regardless, the A-10 is going to slowly dissintegrate if the Big East gets raided.

Temple is all but gone, Xavier, Dayton, SLU are likely gone. That gives you 10 teams, which gets the league in name conformity.

 

I'm not sure if a BE Parochial offshoot league would just be an Eastern only association with ten members? But if they keep the Midwestern schools, why bother with Duquesne? Unless a twelve team conference is desired for travel consideration and team #12 is Notre Dame.

Big Parochial without Piggy

West

Marquette
DePaul
Dayton (Pioneer Football League)
Xavier
Duquesne (NEC or Pioneer Football)
Notre Dame or ?????????

East

Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
St. Joseph's
Villanova (CAA Football)
Georgetown (Patriot Football)

Works out well for Notre Dame since they have a home for their Olympic sports and can keep football as a FBS Independent. Of course in theory, their tie in to the BCS Bowls wouldn't exist any longer once the link to the BE Football schools is lost. Maybe they're content with their TV money????

Could see this happening though. Even as a ten member league without Duquesne and Notre Dame. There have been less logical propositions.

Leaves the A-10 with Temple, UMass, URI, St. Louis, Charlotte, George Washington, Lasalle, St. Bonaventure and Richmond, correct? What's the over/under on teams remaining once the merde hits the fan? Can't see Charlotte being happy (geography and their looming FBS Football program) nor St. Louis being happy (geography). As long as Temple, UMass, URI and Richmond retain homes for their football programs, might this core of seven evolve into another evolution of the A-10? Or will some of those four football schools seek an all sports league with football?

The branches the domino effect can take are mind boggling!!!!!

 

Siena fans will be shocked...SHOCKED! that you overlooked the jewel of the MAAC for the parochial league.

 

Just following up on Ace's remarks about the NY Post report which didn't include Siena.

And I guess the jewel of the MAAC doesn't have much luster once you travel the short distance from Capital Region NY to Capital Region CT. :smilewink Fairfield may be just over an hour away, but the MAAC doesn't get much mention in this neck of the woods. Some Sled Dogs kind of have a monopoly around here.

 

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1090747

Some more talk of conference reshaping. Not sure how, if at all, it would affect the AE.

 

This is gonna get ugly if this comes to pass. Every major league (Big Ten, PAC-10, SEC and ACC) will be looking expand to 16 members.

The Mountain West would most likely poach Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State from the WAC to get to 12.

 

Any talk of super expansion amongst the major conferences always makes makes me think of this: http://twitpic.com/1h3wia

 

Outside the Lines First Report is currently debating the subject.

Notes:
- Boise State could go from WAC to Mountain West as soon as Monday
- Mizzou and Nebraska potentially to BigTen
- Notre Dame, albeit less likely, also potentially to the BigTen
- Texas A&M potentially to SEC
- Somewhat of a Pac 10 and Big 12 merger (like the link I posted above detailed) with Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor left in the dust (Jeff probably has a good idea of where they fit)

 

As far as the other four big 12 schools are regarded from what I'm getting is they will merge with the MWC and Boise St. So this is pretty much what I've put together for what DI football will look like

Big Ten---16 teams
Syracuse (Big East)
Rutgers (Big East)
Pittsburgh (Big East)
Penn St.
Ohio St.
Michigan
Michigan St.
Indiana

Nebraska (Big 12)
Missouri (Big 12)
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois
Minnesota

SEC---16 teams
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Florida St (ACC)
Miami (ACC)
Clemson (ACC)
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Tennessee

Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Arkansas
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi St

Pac 10---16 teams
California
Oregon
Oregon St.
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington St.

Texas (Big 12)
Texas Tech (Big 12)
Oklahoma (Big 12)
Oklahoma State (Big 12)
Colorado (Big 12)
Texas A&M (Big 12)
Arizona
Arizona St.

ACC---16 teams
Connecticut (Big East)
Louisville (Big East)
Memphis (C-USA)
Temple (A-10)
Cincinnati (Big East)
West Virginia (Big East)
Maryland
Boston College

East Carolina (C-USA)
South Florida (Big East)
Duke
North Carolina
N.C. State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Big 12/MWC merger---14 teams
San Diego St. (MWC)
Utah (MWC)
BYU (MWC)
UNLV (MWC)
Wyoming (MWC)
New Mexico (MWC)
Boise St (WAC)

Air Force (MWC)
Colorado St. (MWC)
TCU (MWC)
Baylor
Iowa St.
Kansas
Kansas St.

C-USA---10 teams
Houston
Marshall
Rice
SMU
Southern Miss
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UTEP

WAC---8 teams
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico St.
San Jose St.
Utah St.

I could see the C-USA making a play for North Texas and Louisiana Tech to get back to 12 but haven't heard anything so I'm not putting it

Sun Belt---9 teams
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
Midd Tenn St.
North Texas
Troy
Western Kentucky
Arkansas St.
Lafayette
LA Monroe

MAC---12 teams
Akron
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Kent St.
Miami (OH)

Ball St.
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Norther Illinois
Toledo
Western Michigan

So that's DI football for ya. The Big East is now purely a basketball conference...so I'll let Maine Jeff take it from here...but this is what I've put together from everything I've read/heard/seen of what football will look like next year...yes that soon

 

The one program that could really be screwed by this BIG12/PAC10 thing is Kansas. I can see the other schools in the Big12 ending up in the MWC, but Kansas basketball? That would make a mess of their storied basketball program.

 

Perhaps Kansas would be a logical move for the SEC? Would create a great rivalry for several of their programs.

 

I really doubt Kansas would move into the SEC...but honestly the SEC expanding is really stupid. The PAC-10 is making a great move by expending to get more territory and they forced everybody's hand. Their move gives them the major media markets of Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Phoenix, Denver, and all of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big Ten's expansion helps their football programs and gives them move territory in the Midwest and move in the New York Pittsburgh Markets. Those are both very good financial moves. While it had to be at the Big 12's expense, so be it. But it seems to me that the SEC's contingency plan is purely just because everybody else is doing it. They started to consider the expansion when the Big Ten mentioned it. At that time they were targeting Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. That makes sense financially, but with that obviously out now they are apparently aiming for the four ACC schools to get to 16. This literally does nothing but make things worse. Those four schools are already in states that have SEC schools and are actually considered SEC states. By adding them it forces the ACC to add a few schools (South Florida to keep at least some of the Florida Market) Connecticut adds a team for Boston College to be with and adds to the northeast market...and then they add Louisville and Memphis to get inside the country a little more. That leaves Cincinnati and West Virginia joining out of necessity while Temple and ECU just see good opportunities (Temple also gives the ACC the Philly market).

If the SEC reconsiders a fairly nonsensical expansion it could just make for the Big East to be Connecticut, Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia, South Florida, Temple, Memphis and ECU to make it 8 teams in football. O well, only time will tell how things play out but from what I've seen many people think that once the PAC-10 meetings are over everything is going to kick off because both the PAC 10 and Big 12 have their TV contracts up at the end of the season and need to make a decision on it now

 

What do people on the board feel the changes at the High major leagues will affect the Aeast? Will we see any changes? I would love to see us add another program for an even number of teams. I've always thought CCSU would be a nice fit but just my opinion.

 

honestly I"m not sure too much will happen. With the big east down to eight teams I could see them just go back to their roots are a conference of private Catholic Schools in urban Areas. If they just want to get up to 12 teams I'd definitely see just a move on St. Joseph's, Xavier, Dayton, and Saint Louis. But if they decide to get back to 16 that would mean St. Bonaventure, La Salle, Fordham and Duquesne or possibly a Siena somewhere. Obviously either one would really hurt the A-10.

If that happens I see they tearing apart the CAA for teams but I also see Boston U leaving and honestly thats all I see happening for the America East unless Stony Brook or something decides to jump ship and move up. But if Boston U leaves that gives the conference eight and it doesn't force them to get a lacrosse school just to keep the AQ. Therefor I wouldn't see any more change to the AEC.

Now if Binghamton actually does decide to get out of Division I (Which I really don't think will happen) or Stony Brook or somebody else leaves (which I also don't see happening) I don't think CCSU would be the top choice of a new team because the AEC really needs that AQ in lacrosse and they wouldn't give us enough teams. I could see like Drexel (who all of you seem to hate) or maybe Quinnipiac just to get the AEC back up to six teams in lacrosse to get the AQ

 

Knowing painfully little about the athletics situation, but knowing SBU's ambition - what's your logic about us staying put?

 

Honestly Its purely that SBU just came in and have had one year of success...I wouldn't be shocked to see stony brook move up idk maybe

 

With the NCAA tournament expanding to 68 teams ( a couple more AQ's available in theory) and the possibility that mega leagues at the power level might result in a mid level league or two disappearing or completely revamping, I think the possibility for some new alignments to form in the Northeast because there will be no issue of an AQ for hoop unavailable for two years. From my UNH perspective, I truly hope that a football centric alignment evolves. And I guess I have to hope that the CAA implodes in some way shape or form. It could be a few schools moving up to the FBS level or it could be a few schools opting for a basketball centric league with a more Northeast footprint. The "critical mass" of full scholarship FCS Football is even smaller now without Northeastern and Hofstra.

I can easily see BU, NU, Hofstra, Drexel, UMass, URI, and others forming a new association whether it's a new version of the A-10 or a new name. I've expressed critical factors in an earlier post about JMU, ODU, GMU, VCU, UMass, Stony Brook, Delaware, Temple, etc. Add in the scholarship issue facing the Patriot League and you could see some re-alignment in our region. By the way the_dawg, FCS Football is also D-I so there is more impact than you outlined yesterday. Anyway, if the Patriot League doesn't offer a level of scholarships that placates Fordham, then I assume they look for a new football home. Will they also look for a new all sports home? There are many within the A-10 community that are not pleased with Fordham (or the Bonnies and maybe a couple of others).

Another new issue arising is that the MEAC might align their football champion with the Heritage Bowl facing the SWAC champion. Many of their supporters prefer participating in the NCAA FCS National Championship Playoffs over a bowl game. Might that push Delaware State, Morgan State (Baltimore), Howard (DC), South Carolina State, Hampton (VA), Norfolk State (VA), etc. to seek membership in a non-HBCU league?

I'd have to say there are many, many possibilities for the Conference Expansion/Implosion to trickle down to AE!

 

My thoughts from Vegas.......

As I've stated before, despite what seems like no current interest from them for varying reasons, I think that the following alignment of schools satisfies football, lacrosse, rivalry, and geographical interests:

Maine
UNH
Vermont
UMass
URI
Hartford

Albany
Stony Brook
Binghamton
Delaware
Towson
UMBC

Add in Villanova for affiliate football member #9 if possible.

This makes pretty much a perfect conference if you ignore the prima dona issues that a few of the schools currently have.

 

I would expect Northeastern and Hofstra to join this arrangement as well - Northeastern up North, Hofstra down south. Neither have the pull power to get into a better conference, and I won't lie, the competitive balance makes this quite attractive to programs of their standing. If we were to push this to 16, I see BU and Drexel joining as well. This gives a 16 team basketball league, 8 (9 w Villanova, who will almost certainly follow Delaware wherever they go for their rivalry in football) for football, and a good competitive balance between North and South. Funny thing is, it's almost an America East reunion on a lot of levels.

 

It's looking like the Pac-10's going to be the first to expand, setting off this domino effect. Big Ten would probably follow next. I think if this does happen, we're going to see four "superconferences", but if not, what are the odds that the teams left over from the raided Big 12 and Big East come together to form a conference? A conference with the likes of Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville and Cincinnati could be pretty good.