Interesting stuff. Howard does have a tendency to go for those highlight blocks that send the ball to the stands; looks awesome but doesn't really benefit the team as much as Duncan's relatively boring looking shotblocks.I am here at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and looking through the number of great papers one of them caught my eye. It was called “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan” written by John Huizinga, (A professor of business at the University of Chicago) who has been Yao Ming’s NBPA registered agent since Yao’s inaugural season, representing Yao in his dealings with the Houston Rockets, as well as with major endorsement partners.
Data
Before getting into the data and what it tells us, it was important for us to learn how the data was gained. Mr. Huizinga developed a database called Chances. The database uses data provided by STATS, LLC. and allowed everyone to know the context of the action before the block. The sample of the data used in the presentation was players with over 100 blocks over the last 7 years (this is when the data has become available). In total, this ended up being 170 player-seasons.
Type Of Block
Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.
Haywood gets 69% of his blocks on jumpers, meaning he only blocks 31% of the more valuable lay-ups. On the other end of the spectrum, 91% of Jermaine O’Neal’s blocks were on lay-up attempts, while only 9% of his blocks were the less-valuable jump shots.
“Russells”
Many people who have seen Bill Russell play (or have seen highlights) know that Bill Russell was remembered for blocking shots for his teammates, starting a fast break (called by Bill Simmons as “Russells”. Mr. Huizinga showed that this doesn’t really happen in the NBA anymore. There have only been 7 players (in the 7 season where the data was tracked) who accumulated more than 20 “Russells” in a season.
Preblock Situation
One of the most important things to take away from Mr. Huizinga’s presentation is expected value of the preblock situation. Or in otherwords, what happened right before the block took place. Naturally, a block coming off of a live-turnover situation on a lay-up (think a LeBron chasedown) is going to be more valuable than a block coming off of a deadball situation. Again, this comes down to expected point value. The expected point value of a live-turnover situation is higher than a deadball situation because coming off of a live-ball turnover, the defense doesn’t have a chance to get back.
The best shot blocker in the NBA when it comes down to this situation ends up being Andrei Kirilenko, as 16% of his blocks come against this shot type. The worst ends up being Greg Ostertag. This makes sense considering that Ostertag isn’t really known for his footspeed.
Putting It All Together
So whose blocked shots are the most valuable? Mr. Huizinga closed the presentation by going over what he calls “Block Value.” To determine block value, he used the formula Points Saved + Points Created where Points Saved equals the effect of a Block on Opponents Expected Points during this possession and Points Created equals the effect of a Block on Own Team’s Expected Points During the next possession.
Using this formula, we found out who had the best season since the data started being collected (2002-03) in terms of overall block value. It ended up being Theo Ratliff during his 2003 season. Ratliff accumulated a block value of 300 (287 coming from points prevented while 13 came from points created), which when transformed into wins ends up being right around 5.
Interesting Numbers
Just thought it would be interesting to include some numbers towards the end of Mr. Huizinga’s presentation, showing how number of blocks can’t really be used when determining who is the best “shot blocker.”
2003 season:
- Stromile Swift | 119 blocks with a block value of 74
- Rasho Nesterovic | 117 blocks with a block value of 124
So why was Mr. Huizinga’s paper called From “…Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan?” Well as he explained, through a series of charts, Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).
http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/03/06/the-value-of-a-blocked-shot/#comments
Jakain
Interesting stuff. Howard does have a tendency to go for those highlight blocks that send the ball to the stands; looks awesome but doesn't really benefit the team as much as Duncan's relatively boring looking shotblocks.
Re: Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard: Who had the best and worst shotblocking value (2008
I can agree to this, Duncan's blocking while not as exciting it is nearly perfect, he blocks it so that only his team has a chance to get the ball. Swatting might intimidate a team more but if it goes out of bounds they have another crack at the ball, while a simple and timely block can deny the other team of having another chance to score
I can agree to this, Duncan's blocking while not as exciting it is nearly perfect, he blocks it so that only his team has a chance to get the ball. Swatting might intimidate a team more but if it goes out of bounds they have another crack at the ball, while a simple and timely block can deny the other team of having another chance to score
Re: Tim Duncan and Dwight Howard: Who had the best and worst shotblocking value (2008
Unless you get the ball a shotblock doesn't accomplish anything. Really I wonder how many shotblockers hurt their teams by getting into foul trouble unnecessarily. Unless you can't do anything except block shots you need to be on the floor.
Other night I saw someone block a shot. Think it was in a Celtics game. They blocked a two pointer and the ball went straight to Ray Allen like a perfectly thrown pass. He hit a three pointer with noone within 15 feet of him. That didn't help his team
Unless you get the ball a shotblock doesn't accomplish anything. Really I wonder how many shotblockers hurt their teams by getting into foul trouble unnecessarily. Unless you can't do anything except block shots you need to be on the floor.
Other night I saw someone block a shot. Think it was in a Celtics game. They blocked a two pointer and the ball went straight to Ray Allen like a perfectly thrown pass. He hit a three pointer with noone within 15 feet of him. That didn't help his team
Bingo... Dwight Howards may not save as many points with his blocks, but it's an intimidation factor and gets both him and his team fired up. When you get embarrassed after getting stuffed real hard, many players are going to float away or alter their shot drastically the next time to save themselves the embarassment. Both the Duncan standing block that gets the ball back and the Dwight Howard send the ball flying into the stands both have significant impacts on the game. They just do it in a different way.
Duncan is a great shot blocker, but you need to watch Orlando games where small guards wont even bother going anywhere near the paint because they know Dwight is there. Duncan as talented as he is, doesnt scream intimidation. Dwight's mere presence dissuades players from even trying to dunk or put up layups in the paint.
True but the same goes for Duncan (both intimidating presences in the paint that alters shots) despite his older age but likely not to the extent that it does for Howard nowadays. Plus anytime a big man is focused on a guard; that potentially opens up opportunities for the other guys on the court.
Duncan and the Spurs try and alter the shot as much as possible while funneling it to their defensive anchor; and if that link is of any indication, Duncan is much better at maximizing blocking opportunities at least in 2008. Back then, Howard was only averaging .2 more blocks per game even though he was averaging nearly four more minutes while having the worst shotblocking value ever recorded in the 7 years that study has been around. By comparison, Duncan had over double the shotblocking value and was the best out of the study.
Pretty impressive for Duncan especially since those numbers came after his athleticism was robbed. Just goes to show ya how cerebral of a defender he is too since he's not going for highlight reel plays for the sake of crowd-pleasing as noted in myst's post.
Duncan and the Spurs try and alter the shot as much as possible while funneling it to their defensive anchor; and if that link is of any indication, Duncan is much better at maximizing blocking opportunities at least in 2008. Back then, Howard was only averaging .2 more blocks per game even though he was averaging nearly four more minutes while having the worst shotblocking value ever recorded in the 7 years that study has been around. By comparison, Duncan had over double the shotblocking value and was the best out of the study.
Pretty impressive for Duncan especially since those numbers came after his athleticism was robbed. Just goes to show ya how cerebral of a defender he is too since he's not going for highlight reel plays for the sake of crowd-pleasing as noted in myst's post.
Oh no doubt, not taking anything away from Tim. He's been one of the most confusing players I have ever watched because he looks so unassuming on the court, yet his game speaks volumes. I'd check boxscores after games and he will have like 6 blocks, but watching him, you'd never think so. Dwight on the other hand, every single block has an 'ooh' factor to it. You cant miss it.
I was thinking about this today, why so many post players think they're doing all that much smacking the ball way out of bounds, it's never about that. If anything unless there's like 1 second on the shot clock you just let your opponent recover and reset their attack.
I don't remember where I saw it, but it was a Red Auerbach instructional tape, and he was talking about Shotblocking, and he had Kevin McHale out there. He said it was never about swatting the ball, it's about meeting the release at the highest point and simply rejecting the attempt, then you have the chance to recover it for your team. Doing all that swatting is reckless, you look at the best ones and they never did that.
Not only is Duncan the more efficient shotblocker, he knows how to alter shots with his presence alone, without getting in foul trouble.
I don't remember where I saw it, but it was a Red Auerbach instructional tape, and he was talking about Shotblocking, and he had Kevin McHale out there. He said it was never about swatting the ball, it's about meeting the release at the highest point and simply rejecting the attempt, then you have the chance to recover it for your team. Doing all that swatting is reckless, you look at the best ones and they never did that.
Not only is Duncan the more efficient shotblocker, he knows how to alter shots with his presence alone, without getting in foul trouble.
It's Bill Russell who was in the shotblocking film. Auerbach did an entire series of basketball tutorial films. You occasionally see them on ESPN classic. Russell always emphasized the importance of getting the ball, I've never heard him say a word about anything else. The Celtics were an all out running team and Russell's most important job was to get the ball and fire it down the court to Cousy. You can't really do that when the balls out of bounds.
Russell was demonstrating how you use the correct hand in any situation...He seemed to have really had thought out the entire process of blocking shots and then gaining control of the ball, that film you're talking about he acts like it's all scientific or whatever. You listen to Russell you always get the impression that his smarts were the biggest part of his game.
I would like to see how far back this guy went. I can't imagine a player having a greater value than Alonzo Mourning for blocks if he is assigning higher value to layup/dunks. All Mourning ever blocked were layups and dunks when he led the league two years in a row.
Then in both '06 and '07 he led the league in block rate at the twilight of his career.
Then in both '06 and '07 he led the league in block rate at the twilight of his career.
How's Howard fouling so many people when noone gets near him? Does he go out to the scorer's table to get them?
Sending a ball out of bounds gets the crowd into it and I understand the effect it has vs tipping it and keeping it in play.
What Dwight should start doing is catching balls mid-air like NBA Hangtime.
What Dwight should start doing is catching balls mid-air like NBA Hangtime.
Btw, Bogg brought some great info to the discusion! I'd like to dive a little deeper. He's looking @ the % of FG%'s in regards to layups/dunks/tip-in's/% of jumpers which is great. Diable also brought in the aspect of fouling/FTA into the discussion.
I'd like to propose this metric, which weighs at rim FG%(ie. combining layups/dunk/tip-in%) against fouling rate(ie. FTA/FGA). This debunks Diable's arguement that Dwight's foul problems are counter-productive to his blocking of shots.
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I'd like to propose this metric, which weighs at rim FG%(ie. combining layups/dunk/tip-in%) against fouling rate(ie. FTA/FGA). This debunks Diable's arguement that Dwight's foul problems are counter-productive to his blocking of shots.
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2010/03/04/nba-hd-a-new-way-to-look-at-basket-protection/
Magic just took the #1 spot in defensive efficiency... Must be because of JJ Redicks textbook defensive technique, Rashard Lewis' great post rotations, and Jameer & JWill's lockdown perimeter D. Lol, who is this Dwight Howard character clearly just taking up space? Lolol what a joke, pretty inefficient defender and pretty overrated if you ask me.
Well its also because they've trashed their last 7 or so opponents. They've won by at least 10, some in the 20s. Kudos to the starters because they've ended a lot of games early for the Magic.
This is why i think taking a charge is the most important thing you can do on defense, its a guranteed turnover which a block cannot promise and it puts the opposing team in foul trouble, its a win-win, that being said nothing effects a defense like having an imposing shotblocker down low and Howard is still the king of that despite the fact that Orlando may now always get the ball off of his blocks, it sends that message to the opposing team to not shoot the ball withing 8 feet of the hoop and thats priceless
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