The BE7 aint got nothin on the A10

http://www.ibtimes.com/sportsnet/big-easts-catholic-7-needs-reality-check-national-league-945432

 

Ain't got nothing until they add Xavier Butler and Saint Louis. then adding an ESPN TV contract and you have quite a league with no dregs.

 

Here is the allure of the BE7 from my perspective:

No Fordham
No LaSalle
Georgetown
Marquette
Villanova
No Duquesne
No St. Bonaventure

Hopefully Butler and VCU both make it into the new league. A league with a core of Georgetown, Marquette, Xavier, Butler, VCU, Villanova, would be solid. That's 6 teams that make the NCAA's pretty much every year (recently). The bottom is much better as well. All teams in the league have a commitment to basketball, which can't be said for the A10 bottom feeders.

 

Whoops should have read the rest of thread first....I wasn't only one who remembered game

 

Imagine if Georgetown had never brought back a Thompson to coach after the Craig Esherick era!

That one hiring decision may turn out to be the salvation of the Catholic 7. How ironic.

I can easily see the attraction of the new conference for Xavier and Co. Fans of those schools have been talking about a Catholic league for years. More money, more exposure, association with nationally known programs.

Yes, the new league would be better than the current A-10, but in no small part because it would be taking our top programs away. The A-10 clearly would get weaker as a result.

If the Catholic 7 keep the Big East brand, all the better.

In the back of my mind, though, I don’t think the conference will turn out to be all that its aspirants hope. Shorn of the football money and BCS association, the Catholic 7 are unlikely to be able to support hoops quite as much as they have. And some of these schools are one bad hire away from near oblivion – as Esherick showed.

The new league will also feel the effects of what the A-10 has been dealing with for years – the power of football and TV money that benefit the BCS leagues.

Make no mistake. The Catholic 7 will not recruit nearly as well and a gap will open up with their brethren still in BCS leagues, nearly all of whom have superior facilities. And if attendance falters a bit because there’s no more Cuse or Louisville or Pitt, that will put even more stress on their budgets in the era of Title 9.

What I could easily see happening is an Xavier or Butler coming to be the league’s new dominant programs, supplanting Gtown or Marquette. X and Butler have better facilities and, at least in X’s case, a better core fanbase.

I am sure that would cause some consternation among the lesser Catholic 7 schools!

Even though I am a longtime A-10 fan, I honestly don’t have strong feelings about what’s going on. I would not wish good things for the schools that leave, but I would not wish them ill either.

All the conference shifting over the past few years has sharply degraded my interest in college sports, even college basketball and the A-10. I don’t even follow UMass as avidly as I did just a few years ago.

Perhaps I would feel better if I thought the future of UMass was secure, but I am put off by all the conference moving. The pros at least offer stability, a critical ingredient of success that college athletics has tossed overboard. I don't know who's in what conference anymore!

 

In the back of my mind, though, I don’t think the conference will turn out to be all that its aspirants hope. Shorn of the football money and BCS association, the Catholic 7 are unlikely to be able to support hoops quite as much as they have. And some of these schools are one bad hire away from near oblivion – as Esherick showed.

The new league will also feel the effects of what the A-10 has been dealing with for years – the power of football and TV money that benefit the BCS leagues.

Make no mistake. The Catholic 7 will not recruit nearly as well and a gap will open up with their brethren still in BCS leagues, nearly all of whom have superior facilities. And if attendance falters a bit because there’s no more Cuse or Louisville or Pitt, that will put even more stress on their budgets in the era of Title 9.

What I could easily see happening is an Xavier or Butler coming to be the league’s new dominant programs, supplanting Gtown or Marquette. X and Butler have better facilities and, at least in X’s case, a better core fanbase.

WH, I completely agree with you on this. I could see the "new league" (in most of the forms that are being discussed) settling into a 3-4 bid league which isn't much better than the current A-10 and arguably worse. The BE7 won't see Syracuse, Pitt, U Conn etc walking through the door anymore. As much as the fans of XU, Butler, Dayton, SLU, VCU, etc may disagree, the A-10 schools just are not on that level and it will have an impact on recruiting and national perception.

I am with Adam on the go big idea. I really like the idea of a large private/basketball-centric league. Let's pull in St Joes, the Dukes, VCU, Richmond, Butler, Dayton, SLU, Creighton and, why not, even the Bonnies. The size would provide some protection against defections (Georgetown, etc, with higher aspirations) and it would create one heck of a platform for basketball focused schools and their fans. I could get behind that league and it would contain enough quality programs to place more than 3-4 schools in the dance per year. It would seem to have TV appeal as well. Sadly, I don't think the larger league idea stands a chance.

And, WH, apologies for the omission but it seems like your school aspires out the A-10 with its football ambitions. Which is too bad because I really like UMass from a hoops perspective (notwithstanding the fact that the refs robbed us when they got all whistle happy on Chris Daniels after he started dominating Camby.....).

 

Getting lost in most of this talk is the fact that 10 is an awful number for a conference. Generally speaking, no conference will get more than half of its teams in the tourney, and that's only when its at a maximum performance level. That limits you to a realistic max of 5 bids, and an expected range of 3-4. When a league is at its strongest, one-third will still have no chance at a bid, one-third will be safely in, and one-third will be on or near the bubble.

Going to 12 teams increases the realistic max to 6 bids, and the expected range to 4-5. This also greatly increases the odds that you get multiple teams to the second weekend, and at least one into the Final Four. Over time, that's a lot more money.

If this league starts at 10, I don't think it will stay there for long. If it takes 2-3 years for this league to get started, I doubt it even starts at 10. It's just not a good number. I really can't blame the C7 for feeling this way, but starting at 10 just seems like a reactionary, feelings driven move. That's not good business.

Along the same lines, when teams do leave, the A10 will have to respond and add teams right away. I think it will. If three leave, they probably add George Mason on the spot and have 12.

 

Getting lost in most of this talk is the fact that 10 is an awful number for a conference. Generally speaking, no conference will get more than half of its teams in the tourney, and that's only when its at a maximum performance level. That limits you to a realistic max of 5 bids. The normal range will be 3-4. When a league is at its strongest, one-third will still have no chance at a bid, one-third will be safely in, and one-third will be on or near the bubble.

Going to 12 teams increases the expected max to 6 bids, and the normal range to 4-5. This also greatly increases the odds that you get multiple teams to the second weekend, and at least one into the Final Four. Over time, that's a lot more money.

If this league starts at 10, I don't think it will stay there for long. It's just not a good number.

The ten team Big 12 got 6 teams in last year. The Big East regularly put more than half their teams in the tournament.

 

Brown, you make some great points...but what were the BB only schools suppose to do, short of leaving the BE?

If you are a small, private school and your conference is adding and subtracting members every year, with zero stability, you find yourself at everybody else's mercy.

This year your baseball team goes to Conn. to play a game. Next year that team is travelling to Boise St and San Deigo. Has to drive you nuts.

The BB only idea may turn out to be a disaster, but if they've got ESPN on board and add a few good schools, it makes sense to give it a go.

 

GOMUSKIES on Xavierhoops gets full credit on the attached - he shared it there:


http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2003/05/16/spt_NewLeaguestory16.html

deja vu, all over again.

Same driving principals. Same natural pull to certain outcomes.

 

For years I had thought the split in the BE was inevitable. when the seven schools announced they were leaving, I thought Butler, Dayton SLU X and any A-10 school would want to join them. After thinking about it for a couple of days, I'm not so sure.Now, its the Jerry McGuire "show me the money" approach. You've got four of the seven programs who from a national perspective have as much significance as a gnat's fart. In other words they haven't done a whole lot. A fifth (Nova) has had some success, but lately seems to be treading the waters of mediocrity. You're going to be new kids in the family, and will be in the minority with respect to any conference votes. How many teams will there be? If its 10, getting more then 3 bids is going to be difficult. It also means more ooc games, and good ooc games are not always easy to to schedule on a home and home basis.Your moving into a conference where the teams play many of their home games in arenas they lease. How much will that affect scheduling and receipts? By adding one team, Creighton expands the A-10 Conference footprint and the perception of the league overall. Again, if I represent the leadership of a school being invited to join the BE 7 its show me the money.

 

. A fifth (Nova) has had some success, but lately seems to be treading the waters of mediocrity.

Is that statement based on just last year. That's why I created the table. To see what really is happening and not letting 1 or 2 recent seasons cloud one's judgement. Look at it. The past 4 years, RPI numbers of 8, 15, 45 and 121. Yes indeed it is a downturn, but you can't say it's a longterm one, or they are treading the waters of mediocrity. It's like Muddy saying X is in a downturn.

The rumored 10 team league will start out much closer to a three bid league than a 5 bid league. I would guess it would average something like 3.5 bids over a decade.

Small sample size, but in its 4 years of existence, the 6-7 team Great Midwest conference earned 13 bids. Average of 3.25 bids a year. In one year, it earned 4 bids. So roughly half the conference earned a bid each year, and considering UD was a complete non-factor in its 2 years in the GMC, you could say it was a 6 team conference for its entire existence. So indeed 50% of the GMC went to the tourney every year. I see no reason that a 10 team new league couldn't average 4 bids a year, with years of 5.

It also shows that maybe the Catholic 7 could survive a few years just on their own.

n the back of my mind, though, I don’t think the conference will turn out to be all that its aspirants hope. Shorn of the football money and BCS association, the Catholic 7 are unlikely to be able to support hoops quite as much as they have. And some of these schools are one bad hire away from near oblivion – as Esherick showed.

The new league will also feel the effects of what the A-10 has been dealing with for years – the power of football and TV money that benefit the BCS leagues.

This is exactly why the new league is intriguing. The BCS leagues with the backing of football money will always be able to pay their basketball coaches more. The new league could generate more revenue for current A-10 schools like X and Dayton, by having larger TV contract and potentially more NCAA bids, while having fewer teams to split the pie with. It may not be a huge increase, but even if that works out to be $0.75 -1.0 million a year, that can be an extra million per year put into a coaching contract. And that might be enough to keep a coach.

The reality is that most basketball programs are built around the coach, not the school. Few is succeeding at Gonzaga. Calipari made each school he went to successful. Memphis and UMass had some history, but recruits weren't going there for that, they were going because of him. Schools like Carolina and Kansas, can draw recruits by being Carolina and Kansas. Most others are defined by their coaches, even what many consider big time programs. And even bigger programs than GTown have suffered due to a bad hire. The Big East was in part defined by the coaches in the league. So, I see no reason the new conference couldn't recruit and be competitive if it has the right coaches. What remains to be seen is if this is enough money to keep up and coming coaches at a school, like Stevens at Butler.

 

If the A10 remained in tact and did nothing, but BE7 would have to join the A10 somehow. They would be out of options. So in a sense, Xavier and Butler are making a distinct choice: whether they want to be a part of a few/all of the BE7 teams within the A10, or without the A10.

If Xavier and Butler choose to be with some/all of the BE7 without the A10, what they are really choosing is a separation from the A10 itself, rather than a choice to join forces with the BE7. Because they can join forces with the BE7 either way. So XU and BU are basically saying "we value leaving the A10 more than we value playing the BE7."

As I said, if the A10 does nothing, the BE7 must join. Maybe not all, but some. Creighton, Zags, etc will not uproot their ADs and fly across 2-3 times zones to play 3 decent programs and 4 average ones. The BE7 needs more good teams to sell itself to those more distant schools to make it worth those schools' time and hassle.

So if you are St. Joe, Richmond, Bonas, etc, Xavier and Butler are basically telling you off to the point that even IF the BE7 were to join the A10, just having you also in the league is a worse option than just playing the BE7 alone.

I suppose its possible for Butler to choose to leave the A10 before they play their first A10 game.

 

So XU and BU are basically saying "we value leaving the A10 more than we value playing the BE7."

There is another way of saying it.
Maybe it's "there's more value in joining the BE 7 than staying, knowing that the 7 must have made a pact to leave, and the A10 doesn't have room for all of them."

 

More supposed G2, this time from the Georgetown board:

What happened to NoBoumtjeInTheYaYaRoom? He had the inside scoop


Still here. Not sure there is much more to tell. Barring a change of heart from either side the 7 will retain Big East name and MSG. League members will decide on 10, 12 or 14 by 1st of year. Xavier Butler and Creighton are top 3 choices. And it would be a shock to all parties if separation didnt occur by summer 2014.[

 

Lunardi has an interesting review based on 12 years of NCAA credits, ooc sos, creating an index for all the usual suspects. Somehow he wants St. Joe's in although I would think Villanova would kill that. He also doesn't seem to take into account market possibilities but does think about travel with 2 divisions.

 

Anything that fails to take into account Villanova's feelings about St. Joe's and market realities is naive. Nothing is ever purely merit based. And even when it is, St. Joe's numbers end up being insanely skewed by the Nelson/West years. St. Joe's shows few signs of returning to those days.

 

Why join the BE7 forSLU?
1. Better fit - geography
2. More money
3. Better recruiting
4. Lower travel cost
5. More TV exposure
6. Better cultural fit
7. Traditional rivals - DePaul, Maquette, X & hopefully Dayton
8. NCAA success
9. Name recognition - Big East?
10. Big time conference

 

Markets don't matter as much for basketball. NCAA tournament units bring the cash.

NCAA Units Earned Over the Last 12 Years (2 6-year cycles):
- XU 26
- Butler 23
- Villanova 19
- Marquette 19
- Georgetown 17
- VCU 12
- Saint Joseph's 8
- Richmond 5
- Dayton 4
- George Washington 4
- Seton Hall 3
- Providence 2
- St. John's 2
- Saint Louis 2
- Depaul 2

 

If you were making this decision only based on $, then it would seem like (to Xavier) that it would be beneficial to join the BE 7.
Over the last 6 (and maybe 12) years, XU has brought into the A10 the same number of NCAA credits as the other 13 teams combined.(not counting the additions of VCU and Butler)

If the new league offers an opportunity to have additional credits to be split among confernce mates, and a bigger TV $ revenue/team, then it makes a lot of sense financially to move.

 

This.

It's why the A10 isn't in the driver's seat with respect to realignment and countering the BE. Again, it's about alignment. The conference failed to get there. That didn't have to involve kicking out schools; that had to involve helping certain schools get up to a contributory speed. That never happened. And here we all are, waiting for phone calls from some other place.

 

Interesting take from Phiily paper on the breakaway schools http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/20121219_Bob_Ford__Breakaway_Big_East_schools_taking_an_ill-advised_shot_.html

 

Interesting article. The concerns listed are valid, but it doesn't get into the concerns posed by increased marginalization of the BE7 if they stay. This is their only chance to get away without paying a fortune in exit fees. They have nothing in common with the schools that have been added to the Big East to shore up its foundering football side. Their hand has been forced.

 

Well, the following economics associated with the prospective new conference mates help to answer the question:

http://ajerseyguy.com/

 

Wow. 131 replies? Seriously?

Let a soon to be outsider spell it out for you - 3 reasons:

1. TV Contract
2. TV Contract
3. TV Contract

/thread.

 

As of this date (December 19th), conference is ranked 5 in RPI, 3 in strength of schedule. 12 of 16 teams are in top 100, with only 1 team ranked below 200. Yet many of you folks just can't wait for the the conference to blow up so you can join the Catholic 7. I just don't understand.

 

This is like using weather to debate climate change. Just because it's cold today doesn't mean global warming isn't a trend. Just because 12 teams are top 100 today, doesn't mean they will consistently finish there. It has been shown that doesn't happen. Also consider 2 of those 12 already are committed to leaving the conference (Temple, Charlotte) and another is not a sure thing for long term due to football (UMass) and now its 9 out of 13 teams.

And to play your game, the new league, C7 + X + Butler + UD or SLU = you get 8 out of 10 teams in the top 100. And that is likely to be more consistent year in and year out. And it's bottom feeder would be at 149 vs 260 for the A-10.

 

The "allure" of a BE 7 would be first and foremost, the ability to move away from any FBS football at all and pick schools who focus on basketball. It would be the ability to form a conference of schools that are largely Catholic in base, but all of which are private (this is the reason VCU wouldn't be extended an invite). It would give the private schools a league of like-minded schools and a chance to move away from public schools all together.

It would also allow for continued conference expansion by poaching Gonzaga and Saint Mary's (2 more Catholic schools focused on basketball) from the WCC. Now the formation of divisions would mean SLU, Butler, Dayton, and Xavier would likely have to travel out west for conference games, but that's a small price to pay, considering both schools can be easily accessed via commercial flight. I'm sure the league would try to add another private school with Catholic roots with rich basketball tradition in Creighton. The primary problem with the 2 west coast schools is travel expenses. What would be ideal is if those 2 could be basketball only members of the conference and allow Creighton a choice, since they have strong olympic sports teams.

 

I think the smarter move than adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's would be to have the WCC add Denver and Seattle; the BE7 add five teams, and the 24 teams package media rights collectively. Play 16 conference games (independent of each other) and then two cross-over games each for TV exposure purposes. You'd have 18 of the top 45 TV markets in the two conferences.

Take all the games ESPN and regional TV doesn't want, and put together a subscription service for the video streams for BOTH conferences in one package together (with good production quality, no single-cam non-sense).

The two sides can offer each other things they can't get on their own:
Coverage of the top markets nationally.
Prime time games for the WCC; Late night games for the ECC
Large enough fan bases for one conference to make money of producing/distributing their third-tier rights.

 

I think the smarter move than adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's would be to have the WCC add Denver and Seattle; the BE7 add five teams, and the 24 teams package media rights collectively. Play 16 conference games (independent of each other) and then two cross-over games each for TV exposure purposes. You'd have 18 of the top 45 TV markets in the two conferences.

Does the WCC bring enough cash in to make that work? Otherwise, why add those western schools if it doesn't add much in terms of money? That's a lot of teams to split cash among, including some really bad programs.

 

LA, SD, SF, SJ, PORT, DEN, SEA markets?

 

If you can pretend that any of those teams carry any of those markets, that works. LA is controlled by USC and UCLA. LMU is an afterthought. San Diego isn't even much of a college sports town, but SDSU is far more important than San Diego. SF is also a pro sports town, but UC-Berkeley and Stanford are far more important than USF. Not completely sure about Portland, but I don't think people care much about them. Denver is yet another afterthough. As far as Denver thinks about college basketball at all, it thinks about Colorado and Colorado State a touch. Seattle is dominated by UW.

This is like pretending that Fordham gets the A10 the NYC market. It simply doesn't.

Edit: I'm watching the LMU/Ole Miss game now. LMU plays in a high school looking gymnasium that they aren't even close to filling despite the fact that this is the 2nd time an SEC team has ever visited them.

 

I think we're devolving into a hypothetical thread at this point. When you start thinking of Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco may have been mentioned... I mean why? I thought Creighton was geographically out of place. But now some of you are turning this into the Big East of college BB. Cross-country flights, etc. There's enough strong BB east of the Mississippi River + St.Louis that you don't need to head elsewhere.

If the main allure is money - have at it. Get the TV deal, milk it for all it's worth, and see what happens when you hit the re-negotiating table. The outright arrogance of the Catholic-7 has me dumbfounded, as does the willingness to blow up the Atlantic-10 to join them. I see one of two scenarios immediately:

1 - C7+3, 10 teams, 5 good programs, 1 that's lost their way and should get back, and 4 that just aren't that good. So you have 40% of the conference sucking off the profits that the other 6 bring. 40% - how do X, Butler, Georgetown feel about doing the bruntwork to make sure 4 "has-been" programs stay afloat, yet fail to bring any notoriety to the C7+3?

2 - C7+5, 12 teams, 7 good, etc. etc. Now you have just 33% of the league riding coattails but you are now splitting your TV deal 12 ways instead of 10. Are those two extra teams going to make the TV deal 20% sweeter? Depending on who's added, is it going to offset the cost of traveling to Omaha, or God forbid, California? In this scenario, you're going to have enough firepower after the initial contract runs out to tell SJU, DEP, PROV, SHU to take a hike because if this board is any representation of fans' feelings, X is definitely going to start griping about bottom-feeders. And I don't blame them for that. They griped right away when joining the A-10, they wanted SBU out, then DUQ, then CHAR, they've always thought FU and LAS weren't worthy. Now they're sick of URI.

The A-10 is falling to 14 teams next year. We know UMass has FB aspirations. Does the A-10 have the cajones to at least throw this out on the table - invite Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette. Tell the other 4 to enjoy their history and find somewhere to play. Georgetown is leaving as soon as they find a split-sport deal with a major conference. You have 17 teams, replete with the current set of bottom-feeders, and you can handle attrition. You may even get to a point where you can eliminate programs that can't meet conference standards.

 

The outright arrogance of the Catholic-7 has me dumbfounded, as does the willingness to blow up the Atlantic-10 to join them. I see one of two scenarios immediately:

1 - C7+3, 10 teams, 5 good programs, 1 that's lost their way and should get back, and 4 that just aren't that good. So you have 40% of the conference sucking off the profits that the other 6 bring. 40% - how do X, Butler, Georgetown feel about doing the bruntwork to make sure 4 "has-been" programs stay afloat, yet fail to bring any notoriety to the C7+3?

2 - C7+5, 12 teams, 7 good, etc. etc. Now you have just 33% of the league riding coattails but you are now splitting your TV deal 12 ways instead of 10. Are those two extra teams going to make the TV deal 20% sweeter? Depending on who's added, is it going to offset the cost of traveling to Omaha, or God forbid, California? In this scenario, you're going to have enough firepower after the initial contract runs out to tell SJU, DEP, PROV, SHU to take a hike because if this board is any representation of fans' feelings, X is definitely going to start griping about bottom-feeders. And I don't blame them for that. They griped right away when joining the A-10, they wanted SBU out, then DUQ, then CHAR, they've always thought FU and LAS weren't worthy. Now they're sick of URI.

BrownIndian, let's reset this conversation. First regarding the "arrogance" of the C7.

Here's is group of schools (initially 5) that have been part of a great basketball conference, which is now being diluted. WH had written earlier wondering how they would stand on their own in a new conference. Would they be relevant without Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville coming into their arenas every year. But the problem for them is, even if they stay in the BE, those schools and WV aren't coming into their arenas anymore. Now they are going to have Tulane, Central Florida, South Florida, SMU and Houston. Do you think those are going to draw crowds? Do those schools help keep the C7 relevant and be able to recruit. They are only left with Cincy and UConn to draw crowds and TV audience, and both of them are itching to get out the door.

In two years, the conference, basketball wise, would be GTown, Marquette, Nova, Temple, and Memphis (5 good programs), along with Prov, SH, Depaul and the other 5 programs (Tulane, CF, SF, SMU, Houston). Quite frankly, that conference would be very similar to the current A-10.

Can they do better? By going out on their own they think they can. I don't think that's arrogance, that is facing the reality of the situation. And I know you understand, that while DePaul isn't great, in order to leave the BE with as few legal fees as possible, the whole group had to go. So the 7 are attached together. (This discussion would be much different if Marquette/GTown/Nove could go on their own. But they can't, so saying why doesn't the A-10 just poach them is a non-starter)

Now let't look at their options.

Option #1 They could all join the A-10 and make for a 18 team conference (Temple/Charlotte leave, UMass possibly leaving as well). Pros : 6 good programs, 6-7 decent programs, and in any year 5 bad bottom feeders. Is this any better than what the future BE will look like. A few more good programs, but a lot more mediocre teams. Plus is an 18 team conference really stable?

Option #2 C7+3. 5 good programs. I disagree with your comment of 4 programs that just aren't good. But I'll go with it for the sake of this argument and 1 that has lost it's way. This would be better than the future BE as it's 5 good programs with less weak programs. Plus in a 10 team conference you get to play everyone at your arena. If your DePaul, you are selling 5 good conference games to your ticket holders. A 12-13 team league means, you won't necessarily be playing Marquette 2, so instead you trying to sell tickets for a Tulane game. This is better than the future BE and better than a 18 team A-10.

Option #3 C7 + 5 : This is better than Option #1 depending on which teams are the extra 2. Bring in another Top 50 program and make for 6 good programs and 5 decent programs and 1 crappy program. Still better than the A-10.

Why? Your comment about X griping about bottom feeders is off the mark. The idea that 33% - 40% of the proposed leagues riding the coattails is also off the mark.

The reason Option #2 or #3 is better is because the bottom feeders would have RPIs of 150 rather than 250-300. The reason is unlike the A-10, most of these programs have shown some consistency, whereas in the A-10, half the league might be very good or very bad in any given year. The reason is the new 10 team league would have had all it's members have a NCAA appearance in the past 10 years. X won't grip if the bottom third of the league has RPI's in the 100-150 range. They and others on this board gripe because the bottom third of the A-10 have RPI's in the +175 range. And in the decade plus being in the league have done nothing to improve their facilities.

"How do X, Butler, Georgetown feel about doing the bruntwork to make sure 4 "has-been" programs stay afloat, yet fail to bring any notoriety to the C7+3?" They will be happy because winning a game agains those 4 "Has-Beens" will not cause their RPR to drop unlike winning a game against Fordham. Those 4 "Has-Beens" are consistently stronger year in and year out the whatever bottom 4 the A-10 has.

Do you think it's arrogance to look around and see your basketball conference has been greatly weakened, and by going out together and grabbing 3 key schools, you will have a strong conference again, stronger than staying in the BE or joining the A-10.

(I can't make any good argument for my last opinion, but just feel GTown isn't going to the ACC or anywhere else. I could be wrong, which would hurt the new league, but I don't see how it can happen.)

 

Im a little confused to why you think people would feel that still being a tournament team, in a higher profile league, with a better television package, and significantly more money would be a cross to bear (see Catholic)?

 

I think it's a no brainer for an A-10 team to join the BE7. But I think the "still being a tournament team" is not going to be a given for everyone. I don't think a 10-team "Catholic" or "New Big East" is going to rack up 5-6 NCAA bids every year.

This is the average record by place in the standings for 10-team leagues (multiple leagues, over 10 years of data)
1st: 14-4
2nd: 12-6
3rd: 11-7
4th: 11-7
5th: 9-9
6th: 8-10
7th: 8-10
8th: 7-11
9th: 6-12
10th: 4-14

I'm not going to get into which schools would finish where in that league. I'm going to ask: "Who in that league makes the dance if they finish 5th at 9-9?"

Using last season's OOC performance here's their resumes (entering the C10 tourney) if they were the one to finish 9-9:
-- Keep in mind that 9-9 could mean 0-8 vs teams 1-4 and 8-1 vs teams 5th-10th (no marquee wins! so I listed OOC marquee wins). OR if you beat some top four teams, you lost more to 6-10 (would these be bad losses?).

MARQ: 20-10 -- #23 Wisc
HALL: 20-10 -- #36 VCU, #69 St Joe's
GTWN: 19-11 -- #16 Memphis (x2) (2-9)
PROV: 20-11 -- (#115 Fairfield)
STLU: 18-11 -- (#71 Wash)
NOVA: 17-13 -- (#86 LaSalle)
DEPL: 18-15 -- (#144 MVSU)
XAVR: 16-13 -- Vandy, Purdue, Cincy
BUTL: 15-14 -- #47 Purdue
SJNS: 16-15 -- (#91 Lehigh)

Marquette, Xavier, G-Town and Hall could dance at 9-9 in that league. But those are also the teams most likely to finish in the top four of the standings last season.

I do not doubt that league will average about 4 or 4.25 bids a season; but I don't think they average 4.75 to 6+ bids a season.

I also think that the departing BE7 would take the "We're losing Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, etc! We better schedule MORE tough OOC games" approach, and have OOC records like Xavier or Nova (8-5), rather than Seton Hall (11-1)

Now, same exercise with 12 teams.
4th: 11-5
5th: 10-6
6th: 9-7
7th: 7-9

Since you have two more OOC games, you could get two easy wins, or an easy win and play one marquee opponent, etc. Here's your 6th place 9-7 team (2-0 or 1-1 in the extra games, no marquee wins added)

MAR: 21-9 or 22-8 -- #23 Wisc
SHU: 21-9 or 22-8 -- #36 VCU, #69 St Joe's
GTN: 20-10 or 21-9 -- #16 Memphis (x2) (2-9)
DAY: 19-11 -- #36 Alabama
VCU: 21-10 -- #52 USF
---
PRV: 21-10 or 22-9 -- (#115 Fairfield)
STL: 19-10 or 20-9 -- (#71 Wash)
NOV: 18-12 or 19-11 -- (#86 LaSalle)
XAV: 17-14 or 18-13 -- Vandy, Purdue, Cincy
DEP: 19-14 or 20-13 -- (#144 MVSU)
---
SJN: 17-14 or 18-13 -- (#91 Lehigh)
BUT: 16-13 or 17-12 -- #47 Purdue

You got five teams who are looking strong if they finish SIXTH. So all five are probably going dancing unless they go 7-9 in conference. And you have another five teams that would be on the bubble if they were sixth at 9-7. Hell, if things well right, someone like SLU or Providence could get in if they were in SEVENTH place. That's a 5-6 bid league every year.

You also have to remember that a 10-team conference tournament, the first game your 5th place team bubble plays is the 4th place team, but in a 12-team league, 5th and 6th place gets an extra win vs #12 and #11 before playing #4/#3 in the quarters.


That's working off a lot of assumptions, and nothing ever goes exactly the same way. But the cliff notes, on average...
5th place team in a 10-team league, loses in Quarters: probably 18-13 (4 bid league)
6th place team in a 12-team league, loses in Quarters: probably 21-11 (6 bid league)

Of course, as a Bona fan… go with 10!

 

The only BE7 programs with 5K+ on-campus facilities are Villanova and St. John's. The others have MAAC/NEC gyms.

 

I stand corected. Thanks Bill. I'm also done.. my head's about to explode.