Doug’s perpetual self-owns will never stop being hilarious.

 

The Louisiana firing is tough on a number of levels. He's 3-9, sure, but his only "bad" loss was at home to Nicholls by one. They did get waxed by Lamar, I suppose. His last game was a win in the Sun Belt opener!

The Sun Belt is way down- they've clearly shifted a ton of resources into football. Teams that used to be strong mid-majors like Old Dominion, Georgia State, South Alabama, and Southern Miss have absolutely cratered. Pomeroy has the conference 17th behind the Big West, Ivy, WAC, SoCon, and Big South. I'm not sure it's fair to expect them to keep up with the American and CUSA and A-10 schools they have lost the bulk of their games to.

Also, he beat App State in his last game! It kind of reads like the administration really wanted him out, and they were worried that he would go .500 or better in the league and they wouldn't be able to fire him as easily as if they were 3-9.

 

Not to be outdone by their rivals, ULM opens via a year-end retirement.

 

And, while it's always worth repeating here: this isn't to kick people while they're down or jab at someone losing their livelihood...but I think we can all make an exception if the 2-11 Doug Gottlieb experience at Green Bay is put to an end after one year, right?

Couldn’t happen to a more annoying guy. No idea what they were thinking when they made that hire. They actually seem to be getting worse as the season progresses, and now they have a road game at Drake. That ought to go well.

 

 

Walking away because of NIL, just like Bennett and Sabin.

 

I'd say not like Bennett and Saban...

Hard to have sympathy for a Miami coach walking away because of NIL money. IINM, their Final Four team was bought with NIL money before anyone else was playing the game at the major league level.

 

Whining about NIL, which got you to a Final Four, and in the following year, realizing you lost your two best players (Wong and Miller) to the NBA, not the portal, but returned enough that you should be competitive, only to completely tailspin and go on like a 10-game losing streak in ACC play, mostly proving that Larranaga probably wasn't actually into it anymore, other players sensed it, left for elsewhere, and now that it's looking like they're going to be even worse than last year, he's resigning, and saying it's NIL's fault.

In short, shut up man, and enjoy retirement...something you should have done two years ago.

 

Trilly Donovan, who yes, is some guy on the internet, but one that has been on the right track more times than not compared to these other accounts has their January carousel breakdown. VERY interesting with UMBC.




1) The UMBC thing has to be new AD wanting own coach? I don't think Ferry is the answer longterm for the program, you get what you get and I think we've already seen what his maxed out team at UMBC is, so if they can make the move, probably better to do it now than wait, and potentially have to give an extension. However, how many AE schools can buy out years on a coach?

2) Congrats Dwayne Killings! You're cooling down! I think either way he was going to see out his contract, but it puts Albany in a tough spot if he goes like 9-7 this year. Similarly to Ferry, longterm Killings isn't the answer; unless he's really changed his coaching and grown to be a better coach, I don't see him as anything more than a guy who is going to have more sloppy and inconsistent to bad years than good.

3) Notice the UVM logo isn't on the jump seat, which means guys lined up to get other jobs. Always worth repeating for the "is Becker going to leave?" crowd. If this season isn't corrected his stock is too low to go, and while I think most people who are on here have seen the light, always nice to get an outside opinion.

Otherwise, some interesting choices. Canisius realizing their error after one year making a bad hire (Jim Christian) would be very humorous. Also, Virginia being open and VCU (Ryan Odom) in the jump seat category, that feels like it's the play. Him or Henderson at Princeton?

 

Trilly Donovan, who yes, is some guy on the internet, but one that has been on the right track more times than not compared to these other accounts has their January carousel breakdown. VERY interesting with UMBC.




1) The UMBC thing has to be new AD wanting own coach? I don't think Ferry is the answer longterm for the program, you get what you get and I think we've already seen what his maxed out team at UMBC is, so if they can make the move, probably better to do it now than wait, and potentially have to give an extension. However, how many AE schools can buy out years on a coach?

Ferry only has one year left after this season, so the buyout would be $375,000 per the publicized contract. I don't think this is all that surprising; after two straight declining seasons, it has felt like a make or break year for him.

Most surprising is the athletic department cares enough about winning to consider it. Aside from the five or so of us on the board, I don't think the campus or community even knows a basketball season has started.

 

CCSU's Pat Sellers is the heavy favorite to win the NEC Regular Season for the 2nd year in a row (and 2 of his 4 seasons as head coach). Blue Devils are expected to return to the NCAAs for the first time since 2007 (and 4th time overall). Central hired Sellers the same offseason as UMBC (CCSU's former AD Brian Barrio made the Ferry hire).

Fans are already nervous we won't be able to keep him past this year, as its almost certain that higher paying jobs will be offered to him. I'm hoping we can put together a package to keep him for another season or two.

 

My only counterpoint is that Sellers is already 56 years old. It shouldn't be a factor in his candidacy, but it might be? We all kinda know can sometimes be a bit harder for low-major coaches over 55 to move up. A lot depends on what we're defining as "higher paying jobs" too. Like, is he making the jump into the A10 and up, or, perhaps more realistically, schools like Northeastern, if Coen retires, who probably do have better salary and resources to give? There's also High Point, an ambitious school with more NIL than probably 95% of schools at its level, and will probably attract a lot of sitting head coaches to its position if its head coach gets poached elsewhere.

 

Becker: 4/16/1968
Sellers: 12/28/1968

He could go with "a younger John Becker" as his selling point.

If the view of Coen is "he's looking at retiring," well, he's only like 7 years older than Becker and Sellers.

 

I know most everyone said Jim Ferry was a bad hire after Odom left and yes…..he’s been a bad/pretty not great hire.

 

Score scrolling and Harvard barely held on 71-65 against D3 Bowdoin (coached by Burlington/Rice's Alex Lloyd). Bowdoin was up at the half. Based on the last few years' results, it feels like Tommy Amaker probably should hang it up. But, I'm also willing to bet Harvard will let him dictate the terms of his departure since he did give them a very nice run.

 

 

And, while it's always worth repeating here: this isn't to kick people while they're down or jab at someone losing their livelihood...but I think we can all make an exception if the 2-11 Doug Gottlieb experience at Green Bay is put to an end after one year, right?

Checking back in here, the record is now 2-19 with 16 consecutive losses heading into a road game at first place Cleveland State. 0-10 in the league and 1-9 at home. Going about as well as can be expected.

 

What's fun is that Doug, nor the athletic director that hired him will sacrifice their dignity and either quit or fire him because there certainly will be a refusal to admit this was a huge mistake. So, we'll probably get more of this for at least another year or two.

 

I know we Talked About It when the hire was made, but how long is Nathan Davis' contract? He's really speed running the end of his tenure at Bucknell. I doubt UNH cares enough about/wants to spend the money on hoops to pay a buyout.

Sanders is probably the only other AE coach on a hot seat- kenpom predicts 13-18 (5-11). Is that enough?

 

https://www.basketballforum.com/threads/coach-contracts-expiration-dates.688368/?post_id=15335629#post-15335629

2028, per this thread, where I'm sure I sourced it from somewhere (maybe it's in there in the replies). He was a terrible hire, but that largely seems to be down to the fact the newish AD messed up (I recall there being multiple people who rejected the job like that Princeton assistant?). He's gonna get the full run of his deal. The AD isn't going to admit her mistake here, and like most schools in this league, buyouts are, unless there's a year left and you really have to do it, pretty prohibitive.

Sanders may or may not be on the hot seat...I am unsure how much Bing really cares and outside this year, he's been acceptable and an upgrade over what Dempsey was, which is not saying much, but, for Binghamton, that may be fine? He's through 2027.

Killings is absolutely on the hot seat. There's no way that Albany can endure another potential 6-10 types season. Even 7-9, what's the end game? That he magically improves in his lame duck year? I get that there might not be money for the buyout, and allegedly, Albany's NIL guy likes Killings, so he still has a powerful ally, but they can't go on like this, and I think he has to be at least 9-7 to get another year. Let the next coach bottom out or flip the roster on a path to improvment/getting back to being actually competitive the way they need to than have Killings fail again. Similarly, Ferry is up in 2026, and I think he probably to show some life this year and probably next while he enters a contract year. I think Ferry has a better chance of saving his gig over Killings, but he's also dealing with a new AD who didn't hire him...and, what's his upside? I know you posted the college football hiring myth thing, but in the case of UMBC, they do know they can be competing...Odom might be a special coach who is probably coaching at Virginia next year, but, what he showed could be done at UMBC in the regular season is something the school should reasonably expect could be replicated up to like 75-85%.

 

I feel like Ferry is about 75% of Odom? Let's deep dive UMBC's history in AE:

Tom Sullivan:
2004: 7-21 (4-14)
----------------------------
Randy Monroe:
2005: 11-18 (5-13)
2006: 10-19 (5-11)
2007: 12-19 (7-9)
2008: 24-9 (13-3)
2009: 15-17 (7-9)
2010: 4-26 (3-13)
2011: 5-25 (4-12)
2012: 4-26 (3-13)
----------------------------
Aki Thomas:
2013: 8-23 (5-11)
2014: 9-21 (5-11)
2015: 4-25 (2-14)
2016: 7-25 (3-13)
----------------------------
Ryan Odom:
2017: 21-13 (9-7)
2018: 25-11 (12-4)
2019: 21-13 (11-5)
2020: 16-17 (8-8)
2021: 14-6 (10-4)
----------------------------
Jim Ferry:
2022: 18-14 (11-7)
2023: 18-14 (8-8)
2024: 11-21 (6-10)
2025: 11-10 (3-3)

All seasons over .500 in the league are in bold. Other than Odom and Ferry, it's one season! If we grant Ferry being about .500 overall and in the league this year, he's at 75% doing that. I suppose the question becomes whether Odom raised the floor for the school to a point that Aki Thomas/late period Randy Monroe can't happen again. I don't buy it- I think that floor is pretty low. Do you chase another Odom and run the risk of really cratering? Or do you live with Ferry winning 15-18 regular season games (6-10 in the league) and hoping every three or four seasons you catch a bit of a bump? Is UMBC investing resources commensurate with being better than that? Because if not, the combination of a low commitment and a rookie coach could be scary.

 

I feel like Ferry is about 75% of Odom? Let's deep dive UMBC's history in AE:

Tom Sullivan:
2004: 7-21 (4-14)
----------------------------
Randy Monroe:
2005: 11-18 (5-13)
2006: 10-19 (5-11)
2007: 12-19 (7-9)
2008: 24-9 (13-3)
2009: 15-17 (7-9)
2010: 4-26 (3-13)
2011: 5-25 (4-12)
2012: 4-26 (3-13)
----------------------------
Aki Thomas:
2013: 8-23 (5-11)
2014: 9-21 (5-11)
2015: 4-25 (2-14)
2016: 7-25 (3-13)
----------------------------
Ryan Odom:
2017: 21-13 (9-7)
2018: 25-11 (12-4)
2019: 21-13 (11-5)
2020: 16-17 (8-8)
2021: 14-6 (10-4)
----------------------------
Jim Ferry:
2022: 18-14 (11-7)
2023: 18-14 (8-8)
2024: 11-21 (6-10)
2025: 11-10 (3-3)

All seasons over .500 in the league are in bold. Other than Odom and Ferry, it's one season! If we grant Ferry being about .500 overall and in the league this year, he's at 75% doing that. I suppose the question becomes whether Odom raised the floor for the school to a point that Aki Thomas/late period Randy Monroe can't happen again. I don't buy it- I think that floor is pretty low. Do you chase another Odom and run the risk of really cratering? Or do you live with Ferry winning 15-18 regular season games (6-10 in the league) and hoping every three or four seasons you catch a bit of a bump? Is UMBC investing resources commensurate with being better than that? Because if not, the combination of a low commitment and a rookie coach could be scary.

Ferry is not nearly 75% of Odom. Ferry's first team featured a team with nearly 100% of key minutes from Odom's players. The next year, Ferry loaded up with old, grizzled vets who were completely gassed by mid-February. It was a first round exit.

In Year 3, Ferry went young (which I supported) but the team was completely overwhelmed for most of the season (including blowout, embarrassing losses to lowly Morgan State and Coppin State). In Year 4, his best 'full-Ferry' team is almost always entertaining, no doubt. But the inconsistent play and puzzling lack of size has them midpack in a league ripe for the taking.

Arguments about 'should UMBC move on from Ferry' are valid, but comparing him to Odom in any way is very far-fetched.

 

Sure. This season isn't over yet. They could be 6-10 again, so calling it 75% right now is too early. Then what if they're worse after that? They're going to need to replace a lot of guys. All their scoring is seniors. What if others leave? What if they don't do well in the portal? What if there were signs of trending down were there and the AD gets locked into making the move she doesn't want to make...or even if they do, it just is a bad bet (see Geno Ford at Stony Brook). I think my "what's his upside" question still stands, and yeah, it's not like Ferry is doing anything that screams "fire this guy" in the slightest, but, it's the risk assessment UMBC has to take whether they think he can keep that 75% number up for the remainder of the season, and in the future. We'll see. I could see it going in either direction. Again, he has a new AD that didn't hire him and a coach that probably needs to make sure he is in the top 5 of the league and around 8-8 to at least get a one-year roll over, so he's not recruiting as a lame-duck coach. We've all seen this situation play out before. Will it backfire on the school potentially letting him go, or by keeping him? TBD. Lucky for us, we're not the ones making the decisions, just the ones who can have takes an analyze them in ways that make us feel correct during, or after the fact.

 

Yeah. I guess I am a "bird in the hand" guy. You've got a 16-18 win coach. You aren't exactly committing 20-win resources (to my knowledge). We'll see I suppose.

 

What are these resources you speak of? We invest far, far more in the program than any previous coach got even adjusting for inflation.

 

I would say relative to the rest of the conference. If UMBC wants to be a perennial 20-win program (which is the standard Odom set and Ferry is not meeting), UMBC needs to be matching the top 2-3 programs in the conference in basketball resources. Is that spending there? My sense is that UMBC would be a step behind UVM and Bryant on basketball spending, probably commensurate with Albany. That's probably an 18 win level of commitment, and that's what Ferry is delivering.

 

From 2022 Department of Education data I see:

Vermont $2.8 million in basketball expenses
Bryant $2.6
UMBC $2.4
NJIT $2.3
UML $2.3
Binghamton $2.1
Albany $2.0
Maine $2.0
UNH $1.49

 

Does Maine get credit for a new $80 million basketball facility?

 

Equity in Athletics is the Department of Ed's Equity in Athletics report (the data the federal government uses/used for Title IX compliance). Obviously all of this accounting is funny numbers.

 

Jim Ferry: done himself no favors! It's one person's opinion. My guess is if the right read on the scenario is that the new AD would like to install their own person that Ferry has to finish top 4 or at least have a winning conference record to get another year or two. Feels like a real touch and go situation.

Killings finally in the "warming up" camp. He should be fired. I see all this whining about NIL and Albany used it on basketball terrorists DeMarr Langford and Kacper Klaczek, both who have done little to nothing to upgrade them outside being a middling to bad outfit. Just remember folks: NIL is worthless if you're making bad investments!

In this era, the leash is going to be a lot shorter at the power conference level. Also, a big case study in not letting your previous coach pick successors (Syracuse), or promoting the interim head coach even if he goes on a run and took over after you fired a scumbag (Texas).

 

The Carolina seat is getting hotter by the minute.

Solid effort by one of the Duke students at the Game Day thing earlier today. Their sign said “Extend Hubert Davis”.

 

Dartmouth coach really on the hot seat? Has to be the best Dartmouth team they have had in many years this season. Also has to be one of the most futile/least desirable D1 programs out there.