[Dre]

Makes more sense idk why I thought I saw McHale.

 

[Bogg]

Makes more sense idk why I thought I saw McHale.

McHale was in a bunch of those films, if I remember correctly. You probably also saw one with him in it.

 

[Diable]

Russell was demonstrating how you use the correct hand in any situation...He seemed to have really had thought out the entire process of blocking shots and then gaining control of the ball, that film you're talking about he acts like it's all scientific or whatever. You listen to Russell you always get the impression that his smarts were the biggest part of his game.

 

[seifer0406]

In that case, Duncan's been that intimidating (and championship) defensive presence ever since he's been in the league so the point's moot when comparing these players on that level (although Howard is definitely the one on the rise and Duncan on the decline). Even against stadpadders like Camby, players read these scouting reports and know what they're getting into most of the time. Not only does Duncan have those intimidation factors but also the numbers and advanced stats to back it up.

You seem to be trying too hard to show off Duncan's dominance. Relax, I'm not knocking on Duncan's defense one bit. I am only saying that Howard's blocks are just as effective, which you have shown in your stats where both teams force the other team to take similar amount of jump shots. This particular study shows that there is a world of difference between Duncan and Howard when in fact the end result is similar, which is altering the opposing team's offensive scheme.

Hmm, making blocks that end up in your team's hands are a part of great shotblocking especially on the NBA level. Great shotblockers like Howard and Duncan know what they're doing and it basically is a pass if executed well.

You are still missing my point. If you re-read the post you will see that I was referring to the difference between blocking a layup and blocking a jump shot. It is just as likely for a blocked layup to end up in the opposing team's hands. There might be advantages in having a higher layup block rate, but that advantage isn't shown in this fashion. To sum it up, if someone say Bill Russell who is a master at keeping the ball in play, he would keep the ball in play whether it's off a blocked layup or jumpshot. It has nothing to do with the shot type, it has more to do with the shot blocker. Even the best shotblockers cannot have full control on all their blocks. Some will end up as wide open shots for the opposing team, that's just how the ball bounces.

 

[Jakain]

You seem to be trying too hard to show off Duncan's dominance. Relax, I'm not knocking on Duncan's defense one bit. I am only saying that Howard's blocks are just as effective, which you have shown in your stats where both teams force the other team to take similar amount of jump shots. This particular study shows that there is a world of difference between Duncan and Howard when in fact the end result is similar, which is altering the opposing team's offensive scheme.

I'm definitely a Duncan fan however according to the stats there does seem to be a great difference in the value of their shot blocking. When you're talking about team stats I think you're referring to Bogg's post which was a great addition to the thread however it doesn't address the 2008 season (where the study's title comes from) and like Bogg wrote, it doesn't address when Duncan and Howard are actually on the court; instead its a composite total.

As for Howard's blocks to being just as effective - the article makes a clear argument otherwise. Its true that a blocked shot is still a blocked shot and a positive factor as long as it doesn't draw foul trouble; however blocking layups that result in a live-turnover situation is more beneficial than focusing on jumpshots and/or making dead ball situations.

You are still missing my point. If you re-read the post you will see that I was referring to the difference between blocking a layup and blocking a jump shot. It is just as likely for a blocked layup to end up in the opposing team's hands. There might be advantages in having a higher layup block rate, but that advantage isn't shown in this fashion. To sum it up, if someone say Bill Russell who is a master at keeping the ball in play, he would keep the ball in play whether it's off a blocked layup or jumpshot. It has nothing to do with the shot type, it has more to do with the shot blocker. Even the best shotblockers cannot have full control on all their blocks. Some will end up as wide open shots for the opposing team, that's just how the ball bounces.

According to the study, blocking layups has been found to be more valuable than jumpshots: "Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal." I wonder if the study and its data are published in full somewhere but it makes basic sense that blocking a high percentage shot like a layup is more valuable than a jumpshot. Then there's the preblock situation to take into account, man I want this data now..

Howard likely gets penalized in this stat since he knowingly swats the ball towards the stands for a highlight reel play instead of sticking to the fundamentals. However I'm under the impression that you're trying to make it seem that its more random than not on where the ball lands after a block and that its just as likely for a blocked layup to end in the opposing team's hands as it would for a blocked jumper; going to have to disagree. Like you mentioned great shotblockers are able to have a degree of control where the ball lands but they also have the intangibles to know which shots to challenge, when to do it, and where; I think you may be underrating these qualities. I wonder how guys like Macus Camby did in this study since he's renowned for being more of a statpadder than an impact player even though his numbers suggest he'd be more of a force.

 

[Bogg]

When you're talking about team stats I think you're referring to Bogg's post which was a great addition to the thread however it doesn't address the 2008 season (where the study's title comes from) and like Bogg wrote, it doesn't address when Duncan and Howard are actually on the court; instead its a composite total.

I aim to please. Again, these are team stats, not Howard or Duncan individually. Opponent percentages are in the form: close shots/dunks/tips.

Magic 07-08 - 54.9%/91.4%/40.3% 69% of opponent shot attempts were jumpers
Spurs 07-08 - 54.5%/91.2%/47.7% 70% of opponent shot attempts were jumpers

 

[seifer0406]

As for Howard's blocks to being just as effective - the article makes a clear argument otherwise. Its true that a blocked shot is still a blocked shot and a positive factor as long as it doesn't draw foul trouble; however blocking layups that result in a live-turnover situation is more beneficial than focusing on jumpshots and/or making dead ball situations.

I kind of feel like we're going around in circles. I have already said that this study doesn't take into account the influence that a block shot has on opponent's psyche. As Bogg have already indicated that Orlando forces opposing teams to take just as much jump shots as Spurs, which does in a way supports my claim that Howard has similar impact as Duncan in influencing opposing team's offense. Your study indicates that their blocks are very different, however Bogg stats show that their impact on the game are similar.

I am simply pointing out the discrepancy between your study and the actual results. The main reason why teams want shot blockers is to force the opposing team to take jump shots instead of scoring in the paint. The fact is while Howard and Duncan are different, the result of their shotblocks are similar.

According to the study, blocking layups has been found to be more valuable than jumpshots: "Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal." I wonder if the study and its data are published in full somewhere but it makes basic sense that blocking a high percentage shot like a layup is more valuable than a jumpshot. Then there's the preblock situation to take into account, man I want this data now..

Again, I have already said this 3 times, I am not arguing the difference in value between blocking a layup and blocking a jump shot. I am arguing the claim that it is more likely for the ball to end up in opposing player's hands when you block a jump shot than blocking a layup. The fact is it has nothing to do with the shot type but rather the shot blocker.

 

[Jakain]

I kind of feel like we're going around in circles. I have already said that this study doesn't take into account the influence that a block shot has on opponent's psyche. As Bogg have already indicated that Orlando forces opposing teams to take just as much jump shots as Spurs, which does in a way supports my claim that Howard has similar impact as Duncan in influencing opposing team's offense. Your study indicates that their blocks are very different, however Bogg stats show that their impact on the game are similar.

I am simply pointing out the discrepancy between your study and the actual results. The main reason why teams want shot blockers is to force the opposing team to take jump shots instead of scoring in the paint. The fact is while Howard and Duncan are different, the result of their shotblocks are similar.

It is true that it doesn't take into account intangibles like a player's psyche (of which imo both are just about equal especially in 2008 since Howard only averaged .2 more blocks and with this shotblocking value stat, having less than half of Duncan's value) and its true that shotblocking results in a similar effect of influencing the opposing offense. However like what the article demonstrates, there are differences beyond just those qualities such as when those blocks come and how they save and create points for the team which seem easier to quanitfy than psychological impact. Bogg's numbers, definitely interesting and helpful, don't take into account those qualities and only offer a composite total of the types of shots made and ignores when Howard/Duncan are actually on the court.

"If your block produces an offensive rebound -- often the result of smashing the ball out of bounds -- that's neither the best nor worst result. The other team keeps the ball, with an expected value of about 1 for its possession. If you goal-tend on a block, that's the worst; your opponent scores automatically, and occasional fouls push the expected value of the possession up to about 2.07.

Over the entire stretch of data that Huizinga and Weil examined [Jakain edit: Seven seasons!], Tim Duncan didn't goal-tend once, while 24 percent of Dwight Howard's blocks resulted in free points for the other team."

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....rts.com/2010/03/dwight-howards-defense-is-overrated-except-for-when-it-isnt.php

Actually the article above touched on some points you made and agrees that Howard's shotblocking easily outweighs his negatives but that he stands to benefit from learning and adapting to those advanced-stats and tendencies :

The real question is whether Howard's minor issues with goaltending and swatting the ball out of bounds actually help him do what he does better than anyone else, which is prevent opposing teams from getting easy baskets inside. For each one of Dwight's goaltends, how many shots got changed because an opposing player was afraid that Dwight would make a block no other player would dare to go for? For each basket scored on a second possession thanks to Dwight swatting a block out of bounds, how many players decided to pull up for a jumper instead of try to drive because they didn't want to end up on the wrong side of a highlight?

Before Huizinga's paper gets dismissed because of arguments like the above, it should be noted that Duncan's more subtle approach to shot-blocking was certainly effective as well. In 2008, the year Huizinga cites in his data, the Spurs gave up slightly fewer points in the paint than the Magic did, and were a top-five team in terms of defending the rim.

Personally, I would say that Howard's positives easily outweigh his negatives as a shot-blocker, and that he's easily the best defensive player in basketball. However, I would stop short of saying that Howard would be best served completely ignoring Huizinga's study. Just like great offensive players always have new skills to learn and areas of their game to refine, great defensive players can still have areas they need to improve in. In this case, Howard is giving up some points he doesn't need to be giving up when he goes for blocks. Fixing that problem while still giving the impression he can still swat any shot will be tough, but it's certainly something Howard is capable of.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....rts.com/2010/03/dwight-howards-defense-is-overrated-except-for-when-it-isnt.php

In case anyone is interested in this, here's some more stuff about Howard that I just Google'd:

For PctBlockDefRebAlive (aka Bill Simmons's Bill Russell stat), the median value for PctBlockDefRebAlive is about 55%. 45% puts a guy at the 5th percentile; 64% at the 95th. Dwight Howard does seem to consistently fall below the first quartile for this stat. As a rookie, he put up a fantastic figure for this stat with 62% of his blocks ending with a defensive rebound, which put him at the 91st percentile of the population. Since then, the best he's done is to get up to the 25th percentile this season.

---

But I'd like to turn attention to a different version on this stat, the PossGainedPerBlock statistic. For this statistic, the median is for the player's own team to gain 0.6 possessions for every block. 0.5 possessions gained puts a player in the 5% percentile and 0.69 put him in the 95th percentile. Dwight Howard managed a less-than-par 0.56 possessions gained per block which puts him at the 27th percentile.


April 2009 article @ the Blog section of http://www.sportsmetricians.com/

There's another article I want to read but I don't have ESPN Insider access atm, its got a pretty interesting title for this thread subject though: "Why Dwight Howard is overrated" http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blo...t=http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4978827&name=keating_peter

----

Again, I have already said this 3 times, I am not arguing the difference in value between blocking a layup and blocking a jump shot. I am arguing the claim that it is more likely for the ball to end up in opposing player's hands when you block a jump shot than blocking a layup. The fact is it has nothing to do with the shot type but rather the shot blocker.

Ah I see, definitely agreed then.

 

[Adam]

I would like to see how far back this guy went. I can't imagine a player having a greater value than Alonzo Mourning for blocks if he is assigning higher value to layup/dunks. All Mourning ever blocked were layups and dunks when he led the league two years in a row.

Then in both '06 and '07 he led the league in block rate at the twilight of his career.

 

[garnett]

Alonzo's blocks were nasty.

Dwight's blocks might not have a high value, but you can see the difference when he's on the floor and when he isn't. Teams don't go near the rim when he's on the floor so I'd say his blocks are just as valuable as Duncan's.

 

[Diable]

How's Howard fouling so many people when noone gets near him? Does he go out to the scorer's table to get them?

 

[HB]

You should read this

 

[Jakain]

There's another article I want to read but I don't have ESPN Insider access atm, its got a pretty interesting title for this thread subject though: "Why Dwight Howard is overrated" http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blo...t=http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4978827&name=keating_peter

Here it is, looks like its more or less another take on the information shown by that MIT study:

Why Dwight Howard is overrated

Tuesday, March 9, 2010 | Print Entry

Only about 20 percent of defensive plays show up in basketball box scores, which convey far less information about how points are stopped than baseball box scores do about how runs are prevented.

To get more meaning out of hoops stats, analysts have to either use statistical techniques to extract more from the existing data, or go out and get more data, even if it means creating new companies to track it. The second approach is promising -- Mark Cuban is investing in one -- but the first is far from exhausted. I want to delve into a particularly elegant example: research presented by John Huizinga and Charles "Sandy" Weil at last weekend's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Last year, Huizinga (who is Yao Ming's agent) and Weil presented interesting evidence that, contrary to the "hot hand" theory, NBA players are significantly overconfident after making shots. This time around, they looked at "The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan." Analyzing about 1.6 million possessions from the 2002-03 to 2008-09 seasons, Huizinga and Weil found meaningful and often huge variation, in how players block shots and in how valuable those blocks are.

Offensive chances that begin in different ways -- with offensive rebounds, turnovers, inbounds passes -- each have different expected points values, as do different kinds of shots. Teams score an average of 1.54 points on layup attempts, for example, and 1.04 points on 2-point jump shots. Players do more for their own team when they stop the kinds of possessions and block the kinds of shots that are typically worth more to opponents. In other words, blocking a layup attempt is more valuable than blocking a jump shot.

What happens after (and because) a player blocks a shot is even more important, according to Huizinga and Weil. If you block a shot, the best result is a defensive rebound; you thus reduce the expected point value of your opponents' possession to zero and give the ball back to your team.

In the seven seasons that Huizinga and Weil studied, Rasho Nesterovic was able to direct 65 percent of his blocks to his own teammates, while Stromile Swift had no blocks at all that yielded defensive rebounds. If your block produces an offensive rebound -- often the result of smashing the ball out of bounds -- that's neither the best nor worst result. The other team keeps the ball, with an expected value of about 1 for its possession. If you goal-tend on a block, that's the worst; your opponent scores automatically, and occasional fouls push the expected value of the possession up to about 2.07.

Over the entire stretch of data that Huizinga and Weil examined, Tim Duncan didn't goal-tend once, while 24 percent of Dwight Howard's blocks resulted in free points for the other team.

Theoretically, there's another way for blocked shots to create value: by setting up fast breaks and increasing your own team's chances of scoring. Huizinga and Weil call this the "Russell," but nobody does it much today. However your team gets the ball back after you block a shot, the expected value of its next possession is pretty much the same.

Huizinga and Weil looked at the top 170 shot-blockers in the NBA, calculating the cumulative difference their blocks made in their respective opponents' expected points and adding the smaller effect of their Russells. (There are points-saved and points-created matrices involved here, cross-indexing how any given chance starts with the type of shot it produces to get values for various possible situations; for those, you will have to look at Huizinga and Weil's actual paper, which I will link to as soon as it's online.) The best season they found: Theo Ratliff in 2004, when he generated a monstrous 300 points off blocks. Marcus Camby in 2008 was No. 2, at 275.

The data yields all kinds of instructive contrasts, most clearly between Duncan and Howard (hence the name of Huizinga and Weil's paper). In 2008, Howard had 232 blocked shots, but he either saved or created just 124 points; Duncan had 149 blocks, but generated 167 points. On a points-per-block basis, Duncan has four of the top 10 seasons, according to Huizinga and Weil. Howard has three of the bottom 10.

This research leads to a number of interesting questions: Do players' shot-blocking skills change over time? Is it possible to predict how a player's blocks will change if you put him on a different team? Watching Huizinga present the data, I also wondered if he and Weil could expand their points-saved methodology to look at all defensive plays, or at least further types of defensive plays. In the meantime, though, it's clear we need to pay attention not only to the number of shots a player or team blocks, but to which plays are blocked and, especially, what kind of results those blocks generate.

It'll be interesting to see how the league can use this kind of information, including Orlando and Dwight Howard. If Howard utilized his blocking ability in a Duncan or Bill Russel style...then they could really own the league. Depending on what happens in the 2010 Lebron sweepstakes - he just might have to ante up his game since the East looks like its going to be overhauled. Until then they're still sitting at a comfortable #2 spot in the Eastern standings.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Sending a ball out of bounds gets the crowd into it and I understand the effect it has vs tipping it and keeping it in play.

What Dwight should start doing is catching balls mid-air like NBA Hangtime.

 

[Blue]

Sending a ball out of bounds gets the crowd into it and I understand the effect it has vs tipping it and keeping it in play.

What Dwight should start doing is catching balls mid-air like NBA Hangtime.

 

[Blue]

Btw, Bogg brought some great info to the discusion! I'd like to dive a little deeper. He's looking @ the % of FG%'s in regards to layups/dunks/tip-in's/% of jumpers which is great. Diable also brought in the aspect of fouling/FTA into the discussion.

I'd like to propose this metric, which weighs at rim FG%(ie. combining layups/dunk/tip-in%) against fouling rate(ie. FTA/FGA). This debunks Diable's arguement that Dwight's foul problems are counter-productive to his blocking of shots.

To illustrate this dynamic, I plotted each team’s opponent free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and their opponent at rim FG% below. The text size and color gradient represents the portion of at rim attempts the team allows. The more you allow, the louder the data point.

Teams should strive to be in the lower left region, where opponents miss shots and don’t get to the line. The Warriors, however, feature just about the worst combination of fouling and easy buckets, and likewise find themselves in the upper right region.

Orlando has an incredible post presence in Dwight Howard and at 4.1 fouls per 40 minutes, he fouls less often than the average center. Perhaps the reason Dwight Howard isn’t getting the MVP recognition many believe he deserves is because he impacts the game in ways that the media can’t articulate. Well here’s the evidence they’re missing. The Magic protect the basket better than any other team in the NBA and they own the third best defense in the land. He’s why.

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2010/03/04/nba-hd-a-new-way-to-look-at-basket-protection/

 

[Blue]

Magic just took the #1 spot in defensive efficiency... Must be because of JJ Redicks textbook defensive technique, Rashard Lewis' great post rotations, and Jameer & JWill's lockdown perimeter D. Lol, who is this Dwight Howard character clearly just taking up space? Lolol what a joke, pretty inefficient defender and pretty overrated if you ask me.

 

[HB]

Well its also because they've trashed their last 7 or so opponents. They've won by at least 10, some in the 20s. Kudos to the starters because they've ended a lot of games early for the Magic.

 

[roux]

This is why i think taking a charge is the most important thing you can do on defense, its a guranteed turnover which a block cannot promise and it puts the opposing team in foul trouble, its a win-win, that being said nothing effects a defense like having an imposing shotblocker down low and Howard is still the king of that despite the fact that Orlando may now always get the ball off of his blocks, it sends that message to the opposing team to not shoot the ball withing 8 feet of the hoop and thats priceless